Pelin Varol İyidoğan

Does Foreign Direct Investment Bring Jobs to Women? A Closer Look to Turkish Services Industry

The aim of this study is to investigate of the relationship between foreign direct investment and women employment. Focusing on services sector with the highest rate of women employment, we empirically attest whether foreign direct investment creates job Çalışmanın gerçekleştirilebilmesi için firma düzeyinde veriye ulaşmamızı sağlayan Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) ve personeli Doğan Böncü, Şenol Bozdağ, Nusret Kılıç, Nilgün Arıkan, Erdal Yıldırım, Kenan Orhan, Bülent Tungul, Akın Bodur, Sabit Cengiz Ceylan, Ferhat Irmak ve Esra Sazak’a teşekkür ederiz. Sorumlu yazar. TOBB Ekonomi ve Teknoloji Üniversitesi, Uluslararası Girişimcilik Bölümü, 06550 Ankara, Türkiye. bfazlioglu@etu.edu.tr

Is There a Non-Linear Relationship between Trade and Growth? A Panel Threshold Analysis for Central and Eastern European Countries

It is suggested that international trade has a positive effect on the growth rate of economies. Although a vast literature has illustrated that open or more liberalised economies grow faster, the specific factors that promote this process have only recently begun to be investigated. We belive that there is a non-linear relationship between trade and growth, with the impact depending on a number of macroeconomic factors, i.e. the magnitude and even the direction of the effect of trade on economic performance might depend on other macroeconomic variables. Within this framework, our study aims to investigate the possible non-linearity in the trade-growth relationship, with a special focus on the financial deepening level for the selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Unlike the existing empirical literature on trade-growth nexus for the CEE economies, we utilise threshold regression techniques, where we allow the size and direction of the impact of trade on growth to differ between regimes, conditioning on the financial deepening level of these countries. Regarding credit growth and investment/credit ratio as thresholds, the countries in the upper regime benefit significantly more from trade.

The Analysis of Domestic Debt Asymmetry in Turkey by Regime Switching Models

Abstract Domestic debt is an important tool of government finance for the economies which are vulnerable to budget deficits arising from government expenditures exceeding revenues. This tool used for government fiscal policy is a determinant of macroeconomic stability due to the effects on growth, employment and investment variables. In this context, the analysis of domestic debt dynamics has a vital importance especially for developing economies. As a developing economy for Turkey, the deterioration of fiscal balance after 1990s has led to a consistent increase in domestic debt. Aftermath of 2001 crises, domestic debt was restrained by the fiscal discipline which came into prominence by “Transition to Strong Economic Program”. In this regard, our study examines the structure of domestic debt process in Turkish economy over the period 1998-2015. Firstly, we investigate the linearity of the domestic debt series. Following the examination of non-linearity, we analyze the transition characteristics of domestic debt series by means of STAR (Smooth Transition Autoregressive) model.