Pengjie Gao

Friends with Money

When banks and firms are connected through interpersonal linkages – such as their respective management having attended college or previously worked together – interest rates are markedly reduced, comparable with single shifts in credit ratings. These rate concessions do not appear to reflect sweetheart deals. Subsequent firm performance, such as future credit ratings or stock returns, improves following a connected deal, suggesting that social networks lead to either better information flow or better monitoring.

The Global Relation between Financial Distress and Equity Returns

This study explores the distress risk anomaly—the tendency for stocks with high credit risk to perform poorly—among 38 countries over two decades. We find a strongly negative relationship between default probabilities and equity returns concentrated among low-capitalization stocks in developed countries in North America and Europe. Although risk-based explanations provide a poor account of these patterns, several pieces of evidence point to a behavioral interpretation, suggesting that stocks of firms in financial distress are temporarily overpriced. Received March 5, 2013; editorial decision December 4, 2016 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Political Uncertainty and Public Financing Costs: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections and Municipal Bond Markets

This research investigates how political uncertainty around U.S. gubernatorial elections influences the borrowing costs of public debt, measured by yields of municipal bonds. We find that yields of municipal bonds increase sharply by 6 to 8 basis points before elections and then reverse afterward. Elections have more pronounced impact during economic downturns, when outcomes are less predictable, and when states have more outstanding debt. Several state institutions, such as GAAP-budgeting, spending limits and tax-increase limits, help to mitigate the adverse impact of political uncertainty. Evidence from detailed municipal bonds transactions suggests that declining demand due to investor aversion to political uncertainty is the driving force behind the increases in yields prior to elections. The findings suggest that investors are averse to political uncertainty and demand compensation for bearing this risk.

Short sales and the weekend effect—Evidence from a natural experiment

Price pressure induced by the short-seller׳s systematic unwinding and rewinding short positions around the weekend allegedly contributes to the weekend effect. On the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, short-selling was prohibited before 1994 and was allowed only for some stocks after 1994. Exploiting this natural experiment, we find a strong weekend effect during the pre-1994 period and during the post-1994 period for both stocks that are allowed to be sold short and those that are not. Moreover, the difference in the weekend effects between the two groups is economically and statistically indistinguishable. These results are inconsistent with the above-mentioned hypothesis.

Liquidity Backstop, Corporate Borrowings, and Real Effects

This research investigates the real effects of public liquidity provision. Using the Commercial Paper Funding Facility’s (CPFF) eligibility criteria for non-financial commercial paper issuers as the identification strategy, we show that firms with access to the CPFF were able to mitigate the financing disruptions caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the ensuing dysfunctional credit market. CPFF directly reduces risk of eligible firms, which in turn improved their financing and short-term profitability. We find liquidity spillover effects from CPFF-eligible firms to their customers through the increased use of trade credit, which propagates the real effects throughout the economy.

Municipal Borrowing Costs and State Policies for Distressed Municipalities

Policies on financially distressed municipalities differ across U.S. states, with some allowing unconditional access to Chapter 9 bankruptcy (“Chapter 9 states�?) and others having proactive policies to assist distressed municipalities (“Proactive states�?). These differences significantly affect borrowing costs. In Chapter 9 states, local municipal bond yields are higher, more cyclical, and more sensitive to default events than Proactive states. Default events have a contagion effect in Chapter 9 states, but not Proactive states. Lower local borrowing costs in Proactive states come at the expense of the state via higher intergovernmental revenue transfers in times of weak economic conditions.

Pre-Earnings Announcement Drift

We present evidence of a predictable drift in stock prices before the earnings announcements of firms that announce their earnings later than other firms in their industry. We form portfolios based on the returns of later announcers that are implied by the abnormal returns of earlier announcers and the historical pair-wise covariance of the abnormal earnings announcement date returns of earlier and later announcers. A long-short trading strategy based on these implied returns generates monthly returns of more than 100 basis points. The drift is neither due to the well-known momentum effect nor a manifestation of post-earnings announcement drift; it is evident both between the earlier announcers’ earnings announcement dates and the later announcers’ earnings announcement dates and at the later announcers’ earnings announcement dates. The continued under-reaction after later announcers’ earnings announcements is shown to be an under-reaction to the later announcers’ own earnings announcements (i.e., post-earnings announcement drift) rather than a continued under-reaction to the earnings news of earlier announcers (i.e., pre-earnings announcement drift). We show that transaction costs explain the predictability of later announcers’ returns.

What's in a (School) Name? Racial Discrimination in Higher Education Bond Markets

Historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) pay higher underwriting fees to issue tax-exempt bonds, compared to similar non-HBCUs. This appears to reflect higher costs of finding willing buyers: the effect is three times larger in the far Deep South, where racial animus remains the most severe. Credit quality plays little role. For example, identical differences are observed between HBCU and non-HBCUs: 1) with AAA ratings, and/or 2) insured by the same company, even before the 2008 Financial Crisis. HBCU-issued bonds are also more expensive to trade in secondary markets, and when they do, sit in dealer inventory longer.

Short-Selling, Uptick Rule, and Market Quality: Evidence from High-Frequency Data on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Much empirical research has been conducted concerning the effect of short-selling on market quality and volatility. However, the evidence is inconclusive and still a matter of debate. Using intraday data in a pure order-driven market we show that allowing for short-selling decreases the adverse selection costs for less-visible firms, firms with less analyst coverage, larger adverse-selection cost component of the bid-ask spread, low price per share, and high relative tick size (given the same market capitalization). Allowing for short-selling also decreases (increases) intraday volatility for less- (more-) visible stocks. In addition we document that with the uptick rule in place (not in place) there is not statistically significant difference in liquidity (intraday volatility) between stocks that are allowed for short-selling and those that are not.

Financing Dies in Darkness? The Impact of Newspaper Closures on Public Finance

We examine how local newspaper closures affect public finance outcomes for local governments. Following a newspaper closure, municipal borrowing costs increase by 5–11 basis points, costing the municipality an additional