Pepijn Vemer

AdViSHE: A Validation-Assessment Tool of Health-Economic Models for Decision Makers and Model Users.

BackgroundA trade-off exists between building confidence in health-economic (HE) decision models and the use of scarce resources. We aimed to create a practical tool providing model users with a structured view into the validation status of HE decision models, to address this trade-off.MethodsA Delphi panel was organized, and was completed by a workshop during an international conference. The proposed tool was constructed iteratively based on comments from, and the discussion amongst, panellists. During the Delphi process, comments were solicited on the importance and feasibility of possible validation techniques for modellers, their relevance for decision makers, and the overall structure and formulation in the tool.ResultsThe panel consisted of 47 experts in HE modelling and HE decision making from various professional and international backgrounds. In addition, 50 discussants actively engaged in the discussion at the conference workshop and returned 19 questionnaires with additional comments. The final version consists of 13 items covering all relevant aspects of HE decision models: the conceptual model, the input data, the implemented software program, and the model outcomes.ConclusionsAssessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models (AdViSHE) is a validation-assessment tool in which model developers report in a systematic way both on validation efforts performed and on their outcomes. Subsequently, model users can establish whether confidence in the model is justified or whether additional validation efforts should be undertaken. In this way, AdViSHE enhances transparency of the validation status of HE models and supports efficient model validation.

Financial evaluations of antibiotic stewardship programs—a systematic review

Introduction: There is an increasing awareness to counteract problems due to incorrect antimicrobial use. Interventions that are implemented are often part of an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASPs). Studies publishing results from these interventions are increasing, including reports on the economical effects of ASPs. This review will look at the economical sections of these studies and the methods that were used. Methods: A systematic review was performed of articles found in the PubMed and EMBASE databases published from 2000 until November 2014. Included studies found were scored for various aspects and the quality of the papers was assessed following an appropriate check list (CHEC criteria list). Results: 1233 studies were found, of which 149 were read completely. Ninety-nine were included in the final review. Of these studies, 57 only mentioned the costs associated with the antimicrobial medication. Others also included operational costs (n = 23), costs for hospital stay (n = 18), and/or other costs (n = 19). Nine studies were further assessed for their quality. These studies scored between 2 and 14 out of a potential total score of 19. Conclusions: This review gives an extensive overview of the current financial evaluation of ASPs and the quality of these economical studies. We show that there is still major potential to improve financial evaluations of ASPs. Studies do not use similar nor consistent methods or outcome measures, making it impossible draw sound conclusions and compare different studies. Finally, we make some recommendations for the future.

Early renin‐angiotensin‐system intervention is more beneficial than late intervention in delaying end‐stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

To develop and validate a model to simulate progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) from early onset until end‐stage renal disease (ESRD), and to assess the effect of renin‐angiotensin system (RAS) intervention in early, intermediate and advanced stages of DKD.

If you try to stop smoking, should we pay for it? The cost-utility of reimbursing smoking cessation support in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND Smoking cessation can be encouraged by reimbursing the costs of smoking cessation support (SCS). The short-term efficiency of reimbursement has been evaluated previously. However, a thorough estimate of the long-term cost-utility is lacking. OBJECTIVES To evaluate long-term effects of reimbursement of SCS. METHODS Results from a randomized controlled trial were extrapolated to long-term outcomes in terms of health care costs and (quality adjusted) life years (QALY) gained, using the Chronic Disease Model. Our first scenario was no reimbursement. In a second scenario, the short-term cessation rates from the trial were extrapolated directly. Sensitivity analyses were based on the trials confidence intervals. In the third scenario the additional use of SCS as found in the trial was combined with cessation rates from international meta-analyses. RESULTS Intervention costs per QALY gained compared to the reference scenario were approximately euro1200 extrapolating the trial effects directly, and euro4200 when combining the trials use of SCS with the cessation rates from the literature. Taking all health care effects into account, even costs in life years gained, resulted in an estimated incremental cost-utility of euro4500 and euro7400, respectively. In both scenarios costs per QALY remained below euro16 000 in sensitivity analyses using a life-time horizon. CONCLUSIONS Extrapolating the higher use of SCS due to reimbursement led to more successful quitters and a gain in life years and QALYs. Accounting for overheads, administration costs and the costs of SCS, these health gains could be obtained at relatively low cost, even when including costs in life years gained. Hence, reimbursement of SCS seems to be cost-effective from a health care perspective.

Crossing Borders: Factors Affecting Differences in Cost‐Effectiveness of Smoking Cessation Interventions between European Countries

OBJECTIVES Many different factors affect the transferability of cost-effectiveness results between countries. The objective is to quantify the impact of nine potential causes of variation in cost-effectiveness of pharmacological smoking cessation therapies (SCTs) between The Netherlands (reference case), Germany, Sweden, UK, Belgium, and France. METHODS The life-time benefits of smoking cessation were calculated using the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes model, following a cohort of smokers making an unaided quit attempt, or using nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion, or varenicline. We investigated the impact of between-country differences in nine factors-demography, smoking prevalence, mortality, epidemiology and costs of smoking-related diseases, resource use and unit costs of SCTs, utility weights and discount rates-on the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB), using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of euro20,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS The INMB of 1000 quit attempts with NRT versus unaided, varies from euro0.39 million (Germany) to euro1.47 million (France). The differences between the countries were primarily due to differences in discount rates, causing the INMB to change between -65% to +62%, incidence and mortality rates (epidemiology) of smoking-related diseases (-43% to +35%) and utility weights. Impact also depended on the WTP for a QALY and time horizon: at a low WTP or a short time horizon, the resource use and unit costs of SCTs had the highest impact on INMB. CONCLUSIONS Although all INMBs were positive, there were significant differences across countries. These were primarily related to choice of discount rate and epidemiology of diseases.

Let's get back to work: Survival analysis on the return-to-work after depression

Purpose Absence from work due to mental disorders is substantial. Additionally, long-term absence from work is associated with a reduced probability of return-to-work (RTW). Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a prevalent condition in Dutch occupational health care settings. An early estimate of the prognosis regarding RTW in patients with MDD could serve both as a point of departure for the identification of high-risk cases and as an instrument to monitor the course of the disorder and of RTW. In the current study, we aimed to assess the added value of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and severity of depression to predict the time to RTW. Patients and methods Data were derived from a prospective longitudinal study aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of a collaborative care treatment in sick-listed workers with MDD. We included demographic, job-related, and health-related variables. Severity of depression was measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire Depression Scale-9 (PHQ-9). HRQoL was measured using two generic preference-based instruments, the EuroQol 5-Dimension (EQ-5D™) and the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form Health Survey (SF-36). A survival model was constructed by applying different survival functions to assess the best fit for the data. Additionally, survival analyses were performed to assess the added value of the two HRQoL measures and depression severity for predicting RTW. Results Females and older patients had a longer time to RTW. The same was true for patients with a full-time job and patients with more decision latitude. Patients in a management position and patients with more social support had a shorter time to RTW. Severity of depression was not predictive for the time to RTW. HRQoL measured by the SF-36 was a significant predictor for the time to RTW. Conclusion HRQoL emerged as a significant predictor for the time to RTW. However, severity of depression was not predictive for the time to RTW. These results suggest the importance of assessing HRQoL in addition to severity of disease to assess functionality.

The Missing Stakeholder Group: Why Patients Should be Involved in Health Economic Modelling

Evaluations of healthcare interventions, e.g. new drugs or other new treatment strategies, commonly include a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) that is based on the application of health economic (HE) models. As end users, patients are important stakeholders regarding the outcomes of CEAs, yet their knowledge of HE model development and application, or their involvement therein, is absent. This paper considers possible benefits and risks of patient involvement in HE model development and application for modellers and patients. An exploratory review of the literature has been performed on stakeholder-involved modelling in various disciplines. In addition, Dutch patient experts have been interviewed about their experience in, and opinion about, the application of HE models. Patients have little to no knowledge of HE models and are seldom involved in HE model development and application. Benefits of becoming involved would include a greater understanding and possible acceptance by patients of HE model application, improved model validation, and a more direct infusion of patient expertise. Risks would include patient bias and increased costs of modelling. Patient involvement in HE modelling seems to carry several benefits as well as risks. We claim that the benefits may outweigh the risks and that patients should become involved.

Economics of chronic diseases protocol: Cost-effectiveness modelling and the future burden of non-communicable disease in Europe

BackgroundThe majority of chronic disease is caused by risk factors which are mostly preventable. Effective interventions to reduce these risks are known and proven to be applicable to a variety of settings. Chronic disease is generally developed long before the fatal outcome, meaning that a lot of people spend a number of years in poor health. Effective prevention measures can prolong lives of individuals and significantly improve their quality of life. However, the methods to measure cost-effectiveness are a subject to much debate. The Economics of Chronic Diseases project aims to establish the best possible methods of measuring cost-effectiveness as well as develop micro-simulation models apt at projecting future burden of chronic diseases, their costs and potential savings after implementation of cost-effective interventions.MethodThis research project will involve eight European countries: Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and the United Kingdom (UK). A literature review will be conducted to identify scientific articles which critically review the methods of cost-effectiveness. Contact will be made health economists to inform and enrich this review. This evidence will be used as a springboard for discussion at a meeting with key European stakeholders and experts with the aim of reaching a consensus on recommendations for cost-effectiveness methodology. Epidemiological data for coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will be collected along with data on time trends in three major risk factors related to these diseases, specifically tobacco consumption, blood pressure and body mass index. Economic and epidemiological micro-simulation models will be developed to asses the future distributions of risks, disease outcomes, healthcare costs and the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce the burden of chronic diseases in Europe.DiscussionThis work will help to establish the best methods of measuring cost-effectiveness of health interventions as well as test a variety of scenarios to reduce the risk factors associated with selected chronic diseases. The modelling projections could be used to inform decisions and policies that will implement the best course of action to curb the rising incidence of chronic diseases.

Improving Model Validation in Health Technology Assessment: Comments on Guidelines of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force

__Abstract__ In 2012, a joint task force from ISPOR and SMDM produced a set of guidelines on modeling good practices for research [1]. These articles are highly influential in the field of health technology assessment, and rightly so. Therefore, we would like to discuss some concerns they raise about the definition and interpretation of an important aspect, namely, model validation.

Largely ignored: the impact of the threshold value for a QALY on the importance of a transferability factor

Recently, several checklists systematically assessed factors that affect the transferability of cost-effectiveness (CE) studies between jurisdictions. The role of the threshold value for a QALY has been given little consideration in these checklists, even though the importance of a factor as a cause of between country differences in CE depends on this threshold. In this paper, we study the impact of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per QALY on the importance of transferability factors in the case of smoking cessation support (SCS). We investigated, for several values of the WTP, how differences between six countries affect the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) of SCS. The investigated factors were demography, smoking prevalence, mortality, epidemiology and costs of smoking-related diseases, resource use and unit costs of SCS, utility weights and discount rates. We found that when the WTP decreased, factors that mainly affect health outcomes became less important and factors that mainly effect costs became more important. With a WTP below €1,000, the factors most responsible for between country differences in INMB were resource use and unit costs of SCS and the costs of smoking-related diseases. Utility values had little impact. At a threshold above €10,000, between country differences were primarily due to different discount rates, utility weights and epidemiology of smoking-related diseases. Costs of smoking-related diseases had little impact. At all thresholds, demography had little impact. We concluded that, when judging the transferability of a CE study, we should consider the between country differences in WTP threshold values.