Per-Olov Marklund

Carbon prices and incentives for technological development.

There is concern that the carbon prices generated through climate policies are too low to create the incentives necessary to stimulate technological development. This paper empirically analyzes how the Swedish carbon dioxide (CO2) tax and the European Union emission trading system (EU ETS) have affected productivity development in the Swedish pulp and paper industry 1998-2008. A Luenberger total factor productivity (TFP) indicator is computed using data envelopment analysis. The results show that climate policy had a modest impact on technological development in the pulp and paper industry, and if significant it was negative. The price of fossil fuels, on the contrary, seems to have created important incentives for technological development. Hence, the results suggest that the carbon prices faced by the industry through EU ETS and the CO2 tax have been too low. Even though the data for this study is specific for Sweden, the models and results are applicable internationally. When designing policy to mitigate CO2 emissions, it is vital that the policy creates a carbon price that is high enough - otherwise the pressure on technological development will not be sufficiently strong.

The Economics of Biofuels

Biofuels are increasingly regarded as energy sources with the potential to solve diverse problems related to serious concerns, including climate change, environmental degradation, energy supply, and energy security. Here we examine biofuels, primarily biofuels used for transportation (e.g., ethanol and biodiesel), through the lens of modern resource economics and address fundamental questions, such as: Why biofuels? We then review some of the relevant literature and present a framework for analysis drawn mainly from the green accounting literature. The literature reviewed indicates that the effects of policies promoting conversion from fossil fuels to biofuels do not necessarily promote welfare. Our theoretical framework provides indications of possible reasons for this. Based on findings obtained using the framework we propose policies that not only penalize emissions of CO 2 from all sources, but also stimulate biomass growth. Finally, we identify issues for further research.

Assessing the welfare effects of promoting biomass growth and the use of bioenergy

Using a growth model that accounts for environmental and climate externalities, we take a closer look at the welfare effects of promoting biomass growth and the use of bioenergy, and especially the role of carbon neutrality. As an illustration, a hypothetical intensive forest cultivation project is simulated. Costs and benefits of the project show that only determining the postive effects of promoting biomass growth and the use of bioenergy, such as substitution away from fossil fuels and carbon sequestration is not sufficient. But more importantly, to achieve a balanced measure of the effects on the climate, we must also incorporate all carbon emissions that are associated with bioenergy. Not doing so will over-estimate the positive climate effects of increasing the use of bioenergy.

Productivity: Should We Include Bads?

This paper studies the interaction between economic and environmental performance. Applying the directional output distance function approach, the purpose is to compare estimates of Luenberger total factor productivity indicators, including and excluding bad outputs. Specifically, based on unique firm level data from Swedish manufacturing covering the period 1990 to 2008, we explore to what extent excluding bad outputs leads to erroneous productivity measurement. The main conclusion is that bad outputs should not only be included in the estimations, but also reduction in bad outputs should be credited. From this point of view the directional output distance function approach and the Luenberger indicator serves as an appropriate basis of productivity measurement.

Climate Policy and Profit Efficiency

As widely recognized, human mankind stands before the most challenging problem of preventing anthropogenic climate change. As a response to this, the European Union advocates an ambitious climate policy mix. However, there is no consensus concerning the impact of stringent environmental policy on firms’ competitiveness and profitability. From the traditional ‘static’ point of view there are productivity losses to be expected. On the other hand, the so called Porter hypothesis suggests the opposite; i.e., due to ‘dynamic’ effects, ambitious climate and energy policies within the EU could actually be beneficial to firms in terms of enhanced profitability and competitiveness. Based on Sweden’s manufacturing industry, our main purpose is to specifically assess the impact of the CO2 tax scheme of Sweden on firms’ profit efficiency. The empirical methodology is based on stochastic frontier estimations and, in general, the results suggest we can neither reject nor confirm the Porter hypothesis across industry sectors. Therefore, we do not generally confirm the argument of stringent environmental policies having positive dynamic effects that potentially offset costs related to environmental policy.

Assessment of Green Public Procurement as a Policy Tool: Cost-Efficiency and Competition Considerations

Public procurement is officially regarded as an effective means to secure environmental improvement. Estimates by the European Commission indicate that public authorities within the European Union typically purchase goods and services corresponding to approximately 16 percent of GNP per annum. Hence, it is believed, private firms can be stimulated to invest in sustainable production technologies if the market power of public bodies is exerted through Green Public Procurement (GPP) policies. In this paper we assess whether GPP is a cost-efficient policy tool, and if so whether its implementation can, from a welfare perspective, deter or stimulate entry to procurement markets.

Pollution-generating technologies and environmental efficiency

In this paper, we study environmental efficiency (EE) within a pollution-generating technology. Good output and bad output (pollution) are explicitly modeled by imposing technology properties of disposability and null-jointness. With data on firms from Swedish manufacturing, we investigate the potential to reduce emissions, and we take a closer look at the pulp and paper sector. Dividing the firms into ‘brown’ and ‘green’ firms, we find that there is significant potential, in both categories, to improve EE, and hence lower emissions, of three air pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx). Generally, the methods and results encourage similar and comparative studies on the manufacturing sector in other countries. If there is a comparable potential elsewhere, such as in major polluting countries like China, there is potential to promote a sustainable society by conducting effective energy and climate policies. We also suggest that treating biofuels as completely carbon neutral, as is common practice when constructing emission data in Sweden (Statistics Sweden), may lead to incorrect EE scores and consequently misleading policy implications.

Evaluating market efficiency without price data: the Swedish market for wood fuel

The overall objective of this paper is to analyse the price development and price formation for wood fuel used by the Swedish district heating sector. According to Lönner et al., there is a significant potential for increasing the use of wood fuel in Sweden, at a fairly moderate cost. The basic question raised in this paper is then why this potential is not realized. Specifically, a methodology is proposed for testing whether the reason is that market imperfections are present. As a first step the shape of the technology in the Swedish district heating sector is estimated for the period 1989 to 1996. In the second step the estimated technology and the assumption of cost-minimizing firms are combined to calculate shadow prices, i.e. marginal valuation of wood fuel in this sector. If the average shadow price significantly deviates from the average observed price one may conclude that this market is functioning inefficiently due to imperfections. According to constructed bootstrap confidence intervals this difference is significant only for three out of eight years, implying that the quantities of wood fuel traded are too small. For the other years the difference is not significant, implying that one cannot, on statistical grounds, reject the efficient market hypothesis for all years.

Reuse or Burn? : Evaluating the Producer Responsibility of Waste Paper

In 1992, Sweden introduced a producer responsibility ordinance which explicitly states that sorted out, collected waste paper must be material recycled. Another alternative could be to recover energy by incineration. Material recycling was prioritized, although there is no environmental consensus favouring either of the alternatives. By calculating shadow prices of waste paper for the paper industry and for the heating plants, this study tries to determine whether waste paper should be partly incinerated. The study also addresses whether the producer responsibility has contributed to an inefficient allocation of waste paper. The results find no economic support for the producer responsibility.

Environmental Performance and Profits

In this study we investigate how firm level environmental performance (EP) affect firm level economic performance measured as profit efficiency (PE) in a stochastic profit frontier setting. Analyzing firms in Swedish manufacturing 1990-2004, results show that EP induced by environmental policy is not a determinant of PE, while voluntary or non-policy induced EP seem to have a significant (+) effect on firm PE in most sectors. The evidence generally supports the idea that good EP is also good for business, as long as EP is not brought on by policy measures, in this case a CO2 tax.