Peter A. Vesk

Seed supply for broadscale restoration: maximizing evolutionary potential.

Restoring degraded land to combat environmental degradation requires the collection of vast quantities of germplasm (seed). Sourcing this material raises questions related to provenance selection, seed quality and harvest sustainability. Restoration guidelines strongly recommend using local sources to maximize local adaptation and prevent outbreeding depression, but in highly modified landscapes this restricts collection to small remnants where limited, poor quality seed is available, and where harvesting impacts may be high. We review three principles guiding the sourcing of restoration germplasm: (i) the appropriateness of using ‘local’ seed, (ii) sample sizes and population characteristics required to capture sufficient genetic diversity to establish self‐sustaining populations and (iii) the impact of over‐harvesting source populations. We review these topics by examining current collection guidelines and the evidence supporting these, then we consider if the guidelines can be improved and the consequences of not doing so. We find that the emphasis on local seed sourcing will, in many cases, lead to poor restoration outcomes, particularly at broad geographic scales. We suggest that seed sourcing should concentrate less on local collection and more on capturing high quality and genetically diverse seed to maximize the adaptive potential of restoration efforts to current and future environmental change.

Land-use intensification reduces functional redundancy and response diversity in plant communities.

Ecosystem resilience depends on functional redundancy (the number of species contributing similarly to an ecosystem function) and response diversity (how functionally similar species respond differently to disturbance). Here, we explore how land-use change impacts these attributes in plant communities, using data from 18 land-use intensity gradients that represent five biomes and > 2800 species. We identify functional groups using multivariate analysis of plant traits which influence ecosystem processes. Functional redundancy is calculated as the species richness within each group, and response diversity as the multivariate within-group dispersion in response trait space, using traits that influence responses to disturbances. Meta-analysis across all datasets showed that land-use intensification significantly reduced both functional redundancy and response diversity, although specific relationships varied considerably among the different land-use gradients. These results indicate that intensified management of ecosystems for resource extraction can increase their vulnerability to future disturbances.

A global synthesis of plant extinction rates in urban areas

Plant extinctions from urban areas are a growing threat to biodiversity worldwide. To minimize this threat, it is critical to understand what factors are influencing plant extinction rates. We compiled plant extinction rate data for 22 cities around the world. Two-thirds of the variation in plant extinction rates was explained by a combination of the citys historical development and the current proportion of native vegetation, with the former explaining the greatest variability. As a single variable, the amount of native vegetation remaining also influenced extinction rates, particularly in cities > 200 years old. Our study demonstrates that the legacies of landscape transformations by agrarian and urban development last for hundreds of years, and modern cities potentially carry a large extinction debt. This finding highlights the importance of preserving native vegetation in urban areas and the need for mitigation to minimize potential plant extinctions in the future.

Understanding co‐occurrence by modelling species simultaneously with a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM)

Summary A primary goal of ecology is to understand the fundamental processes underlying the geographic distributions of species. Two major strands of ecology – habitat modelling and community ecology – approach this problem differently. Habitat modellers often use species distribution models (SDMs) to quantify the relationship between species’ and their environments without considering potential biotic interactions. Community ecologists, on the other hand, tend to focus on biotic interactions and, in observational studies, use co-occurrence patterns to identify ecological processes. Here, we describe a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that integrates these distinct observational approaches by incorporating species co-occurrence data into a SDM. JSDMs estimate distributions of multiple species simultaneously and allow decomposition of species co-occurrence patterns into components describing shared environmental responses and residual patterns of co-occurrence. We provide a general description of the model, a tutorial and code for fitting the model in R. We demonstrate this modelling approach using two case studies: frogs and eucalypt trees in Victoria, Australia. Overall, shared environmental correlations were stronger than residual correlations for both frogs and eucalypts, but there were cases of strong residual correlation. Frog species generally had positive residual correlations, possibly due to the fact these species occurred in similar habitats that were not fully described by the environmental variables included in the JSDM. Eucalypt species that interbreed had similar environmental responses but had negative residual co-occurrence. One explanation is that interbreeding species may not form stable assemblages despite having similar environmental affinities. Environmental and residual correlations estimated from JSDMs can help indicate whether co-occurrence is driven by shared environmental responses or other ecological or evolutionary process (e.g. biotic interactions), or if important predictor variables are missing. JSDMs take into account the fact that distributions of species might be related to each other and thus overcome a major limitation of modelling species distributions independently.

Quantifying levels of biological invasion: towards the objective classification of invaded and invasible ecosystems

Biological invasions are a global phenomenon that threatens biodiversity, and few, if any, ecosystems are free from alien species. The outcome of human-mediated introductions is affected by the invasiveness of species and invasibility of ecosystems, but research has primarily focused on defining, characterizing and identifying invasive species; ecosystem invasibility has received much less attention. A prerequisite for characterizing invasibility is the ability to compare levels of invasion across ecosystems. In this paper, we aim to identify the best way to quantify the level of invasion by nonnative animals and plants by reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of different metrics. We explore how interpretation and choice of these measures can depend on the objective of a study or management intervention. Based on our review, we recommend two invasion indices and illustrate their use by applying them to two case studies. Relative alien species richness and relative alien species abundance indicate the contribution that alien species make to a community. They are easy to measure, can be applied to various taxa, are independent of scale and are comparable across regions and ecosystems, and historical data are often available. The relationship between relative alien richness and abundance can indicate the presence of dominant alien species and the trajectory of invasion over time, and can highlight ecosystems and sites that are heavily invaded or especially susceptible to invasion. Splitting species into functional groups and examining invasion patterns of transformer species may be particularly instructive for gauging effects of alien invasion on ecosystem structure and function. Establishing standard, transparent ways to define and quantify invasion level will facilitate meaningful comparisons among studies, ecosystem types and regions. It is essential for progress in ecology and will help guide ecosystem restoration and management.

Putting plant resistance traits on the map: a test of the idea that plants are better defended at lower latitudes

• It has long been believed that plant species from the tropics have higher levels of traits associated with resistance to herbivores than do species from higher latitudes. A meta-analysis recently showed that the published literature does not support this theory. However, the idea has never been tested using data gathered with consistent methods from a wide range of latitudes. • We quantified the relationship between latitude and a broad range of chemical and physical traits across 301 species from 75 sites world-wide. • Six putative resistance traits, including tannins, the concentration of lipids (an indicator of oils, waxes and resins), and leaf toughness were greater in high-latitude species. Six traits, including cyanide production and the presence of spines, were unrelated to latitude. Only ash content (an indicator of inorganic substances such as calcium oxalates and phytoliths) and the properties of species with delayed greening were higher in the tropics. • Our results do not support the hypothesis that tropical plants have higher levels of resistance traits than do plants from higher latitudes. If anything, plants have higher resistance toward the poles. The greater resistance traits of high-latitude species might be explained by the greater cost of losing a given amount of leaf tissue in low-productivity environments.

Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty

Adaptive management has a long history in the natural resource management literature, but despite this, few practitioners have developed adaptive strategies to conserve threatened species. Active adaptive management provides a framework for valuing learning by measuring the degree to which it improves long-run management outcomes. The challenge of an active adaptive approach is to find the correct balance between gaining knowledge to improve management in the future and achieving the best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. We develop and analyze a framework for active adaptive management of a threatened species. Our case study concerns a novel facial tumor disease affecting the Australian threatened species Sarcophilus harrisii: the Tasmanian devil. We use stochastic dynamic programming with Bayesian updating to identify the management strategy that maximizes the Tasmanian devil population growth rate, taking into account improvements to management through learning to better understand disease latency and the relative effectiveness of three competing management options. Exactly which management action we choose each year is driven by the credibility of competing hypotheses about disease latency and by the population growth rate predicted by each hypothesis under the competing management actions. We discover that the optimal combination of management actions depends on the number of sites available and the time remaining to implement management. Our approach to active adaptive management provides a framework to identify the optimal amount of effort to invest in learning to achieve long-run conservation objectives.

Current Constraints and Future Directions in Estimating Coextinction

Coextinction is a poorly quantified phenomenon, but results of recent modeling suggest high losses to global biodiversity through the loss of dependent species when hosts go extinct. There are critical gaps in coextinction theory, and we outline these in a framework to direct future research toward more accurate estimates of coextinction rates. Specifically, the most critical priorities include acquisition of more accurate host data, including the threat status of host species; acquisition of data on the use of hosts by dependent species across a wide array of localities, habitats, and breadth of both hosts and dependents; development of models that incorporate correlates of nonrandom host and dependent extinctions, such as phylogeny and traits that increase extinction-proneness; and determination of whether dependents are being lost before their hosts and adjusting models accordingly. Without synergistic development of better empirical data and more realistic models to estimate the number of cothreatened species and coextinction rates, the contribution of coextinction to global declines in biodiversity will remain unknown and unmanaged.

SPATIAL VARIATION OF COPPER AND LEAD CONCENTRATIONS OF WATER HYACINTH PLANTS IN A WETLAND RECEIVING URBAN RUN-OFF

Copper and lead concentrations of roots of water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms, in an urban wetland in Sydney, Australia ranged between 145 ± 15 and 1100 ± 145 μg g−1 dry mass for lead; and between 14.7 ± 7.0 and 303 ± 108 μg g−1 dry mass for copper, (mean ± sd, n = 6). Considerable variation at the scale of individual plants was found, about 20% relative standard deviation within a site of about 3 m radius. Samples of single or few plants are therefore unlikely to allow assessment of the pollution status of a wetland. Copper and lead had similar spatial distribution. Metal concentrations in the sediments, roots and leaves declined exponentially with increased distance from the inflow to the wetland. Distance from an inflow explained much of the variation in metal concentrations, up to: 87% for Pb and 85% for Cu in roots; 54% for Cu in leaves; 88% for Pb; and 45% for Cu in sediments. The decline in metal concentration over distance was steeper for roots than sediments. Concentrations of metals were greater for fine secondary roots than for coarse primary roots. The median and range of metal concentrations in root portions and sediments were as follows (μg g−1 dry mass): Cu fine: 21.0, 12.3–259; Cu mixed: 53.3, 18.8–296; Cu coarse: 60.8, 29.7–327; Cu sediment: 263, 190–377; Pb fine: 121, 21.8–843; Pb mixed: 257, 41.4–1270; Pb coarse: 265, 77.5–1160; Pb sediment: 1170, 590–1870. Regressions of loge-transformed metal concentrations of roots and leaves on loge-transformed metal concentrations in adjacent sediment were significant for copper in leaves and roots, and highly significant for lead in roots. This study highlights the need for estimation of within-site variation for comparisons among sites, and provides a predictive model of exponential decline of metal concentration over distance within a small urban wetland.

Paying the extinction debt: woodland birds in the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia

Abstract Approximately 90% of the original woodlands of the Mount Lofty Ranges of South Australia has been cleared, modified or fragmented, most severely in the last 60 years, and affecting the avifauna dependent on native vegetation. This study identifies which woodland-dependent species are still declining in two different habitats, Pink Gum—Blue Gum woodland and Stringybark woodland. We analyse the Mount Lofty Ranges Woodland Bird Long-Term Monitoring Dataset for 1999–2007, to look for changes in abundance of 59 species. We use logistic regression of prevalence on lists in a Bayesian framework, and List Length Analysis to control for variation in detectability. Compared with Reporting Rate Analysis, a more traditional approach, List Length Analysis provides tighter confidence intervals by accounting for changing detectability. Several common species were declining significantly. Increasers were generally large-bodied generalists. Many birds have already disappeared from this modified and naturally isolated woodland island, and our results suggest that more specialist insectivores are likely to follow. The Mount Lofty Ranges can be regarded as a ‘canary landscape’ for temperate woodlands elsewhere in Australia—without immediate action their bird communities are likely to follow the trajectory of the Mount Lofty Ranges avifauna. Alternatively, with extensive habitat restoration and management, we could avoid paying the extinction debt.