Peter Bacchetti

Seropositivity for HIV and the development of AIDS or AIDS related condition: three year follow up of the San Francisco General Hospital cohort

The three year actuarial progression rate to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a cohort of men in San Francisco who were seropositive for the human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) was 22%. An additional 26 (19%) developed AIDS related conditions. β2 Microglobulin concentration, packed cell volume, HIV p24 antigenaemia, and the proportion and number of T4 lymphocytes each independently predicted progression to AIDS. β2 Microglobulin was the most powerful predictor. The 111 subjects tested who were normal by all predictors (40%) had a three year progression rate of 7%, and the 68 subjects who were abnormal by two or more predictors (24%) had a progression rate of 57%. Two thirds of all men who progressed to AIDS were in the last group. The median T4 lymphocyte count in subjects who did not progress to AIDS fell from 626 × 106 to 327 × 106/1. HIV p24 antigenaemia developed in 7% of the subjects per year. The proportion who were abnormal by two or more predictive variables rose to 41%. At three years an estimated two thirds of the seropositive subjects showed clinical AIDS, an AIDS related condition, or laboratory results that were highly predictive of AIDS. It is concluded from the observed rates and the distribution of predictive variables at three years that half of the men who were seropositive for HIV will develop AIDS by six years after the start of the study, and three quarters will develop AIDS or an AIDS related condition.

Age Affects Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common among the elderly. However, little is known about how the clinical implications of CKD vary with age. We examined the age-specific incidence of death, treated end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) among 209,622 US veterans with CKD stages 3 to 5 followed for a mean of 3.2 years. Patients aged 75 years or older at baseline comprised 47% of the overall cohort and accounted for 28% of the 9227 cases of ESRD that occurred during follow-up. Among patients of all ages, rates of both death and ESRD were inversely related to eGFR at baseline. However, among those with comparable levels of eGFR, older patients had higher rates of death and lower rates of ESRD than younger patients. Consequently, the level of eGFR below which the risk of ESRD exceeded the risk of death varied by age, ranging from 45 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) for 18 to 44 year old patients to 15 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) for 65 to 84 year old patients. Among those 85 years or older, the risk of death always exceeded the risk of ESRD in this cohort. Among patients with eGFR levels <45 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) at baseline, older patients were less likely than their younger counterparts to experience an annual decline in eGFR of >3 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). In conclusion, age is a major effect modifier among patients with an eGFR of <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), challenging us to move beyond a uniform stage-based approach to managing CKD.

Sexual transmission of HIV-1 among injection drug users in San Francisco, USA: risk-factor analysis

BACKGROUND Many new HIV-1 infections in the USA occur in injection drug users (IDUs). HIV-1seroconversion of IDUs is mainly associated with injection-related risk factors. Harm- reduction programmes concentrate on injection-risk behaviour. We aimed to establish whether injection or sexual risk factors, or both, were associated with HIV-1antibody seroconversion of street-recruited IDUs in San Francisco, from 1986 to 1998. METHODS IDUs were enrolled every 6 months from four community sites. We did a nested case-control study comparing 58 respondents who seroconverted between visits with 1134 controls who remained seronegative. Controls were matched with cases by sex and date. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI were calculated for men and women by use of conditional logistic regression. FINDINGS Men who had sex with men were 8.8 times as likely to seroconvert (95% CI 3.7-20.5) as heterosexual men. Women who reported having traded sex for money in the past year were 5.1 times as likely as others to seroconvert (95% CI 1.9-13.7). Women younger than 40 years were more likely to seroconvert than those 40 years or older (2.8 [1.05-7.6]), and women who reported having a steady sex-partner who injected drugs were less likely to seroconvert than other women (0.32 [0.11-0.92]). INTERPRETATION HIV-1 seroconversion of street-recruited IDUs in San Francisco is strongly associated with sexual behaviour. HIV-1risk might be reduced by incorporation of innovative sexual-risk-reduction strategies into harm-reduction programmes.

Transfusion related acute lung injury: incidence and risk factors

Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is the leading cause of transfusion-related mortality. To determine TRALI incidence by prospective, active surveillance and to identify risk factors by a case-control study, 2 academic medical centers enrolled 89 cases and 164 transfused controls. Recipient risk factors identified by multivariate analysis were higher IL-8 levels, liver surgery, chronic alcohol abuse, shock, higher peak airway pressure while being mechanically ventilated, current smoking, and positive fluid balance. Transfusion risk factors were receipt of plasma or whole blood from female donors (odds ratio = 4.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.85-11.2, P = .001), volume of HLA class II antibody with normalized background ratio more than 27.5 (OR = 1.92/100 mL, 95% CI, 1.08-3.4, P = .03), and volume of anti-human neutrophil antigen positive by granulocyte immunofluoresence test (OR = 1.71/100 mL, 95% CI, 1.18-2.5, P = .004). Little or no risk was associated with older red blood cell units, noncognate or weak cognate class II antibody, or class I antibody. Reduced transfusion of plasma from female donors was concurrent with reduced TRALI incidence: 2.57 (95% CI, 1.72-3.86) in 2006 versus 0.81 (95% CI, 0.44-1.49) in 2009 per 10 000 transfused units (P = .002). The identified risk factors provide potential targets for reducing residual TRALI.

Comparison of Custom and Prefabricated Orthoses in the Initial Treatment of Proximal Plantar Fasciitis

Fifteen centers for orthopaedic treatment of the foot and ankle participated in a prospective randomized trial to compare several nonoperative treatments for proximal plantar fasciitis (heel pain syndrome). Included were 236 patients (160 women and 76 men) who were 16 years of age or older. Most reported duration of symptoms of 6 months or less. Patients with systemic disease, significant musculoskeletal complaints, sciatica, or local nerve entrapment were excluded. We randomized patients prospectively into five different treatment groups. All groups performed Achilles tendon- and plantar fascia-stretching in a similar manner. One group was treated with stretching only. The other four groups stretched and used one of four different shoe inserts, including a silicone heel pad, a felt pad, a rubber heel cup, or a custom-made polypropylene orthotic device. Patients were reevaluated after 8 weeks of treatment. The percentages improved in each group were: (1) silicone insert, 95%; (2) rubber insert, 88%; (3) felt insert, 81%; (4)stretching only, 72%; and (5) custom orthosis, 68%. Combining all the patients who used a prefabricated insert, we found that their improvement rates were higher than those assigned to stretching only (P = 0.022) and those who stretched and used a custom orthosis (P = 0.0074). We conclude that, when used in conjunction with a stretching program, a prefabricated shoe insert is more likely to produce improvement in symp-toms as part of the initial treatment of proximal plantar fasciitis than a custom polypropylene orthotic device.

Serum sodium predicts mortality in patients listed for liver transplantation.

With the implementation of the model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD), refractory ascites, a known predictor of mortality in cirrhosis, was removed as a criterion for liver allocation. Because ascites is associated with low serum sodium, we evaluated serum sodium as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis who were listed for liver transplantation and whether the addition of serum sodium to MELD was superior to MELD alone. This is a single‐center retrospective cohort of all adult patients with cirrhosis listed for transplantation from February 27, 2002, to December 26, 2003. Listing laboratories were those nearest the listing date ±2 months. Of the 513 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 341 were still listed, while 172 were removed from the list (105 for transplantation, 56 for death, 11 for other reasons). The median serum sodium and MELD scores were 137 mEq/L (range, 110‐155) and 15 (range, 6‐51), respectively, at listing. Median follow‐up was 201 (range, 1‐662) days. The risk of death with serum sodium < 126 mEq/L at listing or while listed was increased, with hazard ratios of 7.8 (P < .001) and 6.3 (P < .001), respectively, and the association was independent of MELD. The c‐statistics of receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting mortality at 3 months based upon listing MELD with and without listing serum sodium were 0.883 and 0.897, respectively, and at 6 months were 0.871 and 0.905, respectively. In conclusion, serum sodium < 126 mEq/L at listing or while listed for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Addition of serum sodium to MELD increases the ability to predict 3‐ and 6‐month mortality in patients with cirrhosis. (HEPATOLOGY 2005;41:32–39.)

Reporting bias in drug trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration: review of publication and presentation.

Background Previous studies of drug trials submitted to regulatory authorities have documented selective reporting of both entire trials and favorable results. The objective of this study is to determine the publication rate of efficacy trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in approved New Drug Applications (NDAs) and to compare the trial characteristics as reported by the FDA with those reported in publications. Methods and Findings This is an observational study of all efficacy trials found in approved NDAs for New Molecular Entities (NMEs) from 2001 to 2002 inclusive and all published clinical trials corresponding to the trials within the NDAs. For each trial included in the NDA, we assessed its publication status, primary outcome(s) reported and their statistical significance, and conclusions. Seventy-eight percent (128/164) of efficacy trials contained in FDA reviews of NDAs were published. In a multivariate model, trials with favorable primary outcomes (OR = 4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33–17.1, p = 0.018) and active controls (OR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.02–11.2, p = 0.047) were more likely to be published. Forty-one primary outcomes from the NDAs were omitted from the papers. Papers included 155 outcomes that were in the NDAs, 15 additional outcomes that favored the test drug, and two other neutral or unknown additional outcomes. Excluding outcomes with unknown significance, there were 43 outcomes in the NDAs that did not favor the NDA drug. Of these, 20 (47%) were not included in the papers. The statistical significance of five of the remaining 23 outcomes (22%) changed between the NDA and the paper, with four changing to favor the test drug in the paper (p = 0.38). Excluding unknowns, 99 conclusions were provided in both NDAs and papers, nine conclusions (9%) changed from the FDA review of the NDA to the paper, and all nine did so to favor the test drug (100%, 95% CI 72%–100%, p = 0.0039). Conclusions Many trials were still not published 5 y after FDA approval. Discrepancies between the trial information reviewed by the FDA and information found in published trials tended to lead to more favorable presentations of the NDA drugs in the publications. Thus, the information that is readily available in the scientific literature to health care professionals is incomplete and potentially biased.

Preclinical atherosclerosis due to HIV infection: carotid intima-medial thickness measurements from the FRAM study

Background:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an increasing cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients. However, it is controversial whether HIV infection contributes to accelerated atherosclerosis independent of traditional CVD risk factors. Methods:Cross-sectional study of HIV-infected participants and controls without pre-existing CVD from the study of Fat Redistribution and Metabolic Change in HIV Infection (FRAM) and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Preclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by carotid intima-medial thickness (cIMT) measurements in the internal/bulb and common regions in HIV-infected participants and controls after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors. Results:For internal carotid, mean IMT was 1.17 ± 0.50 mm for HIV-infected participants and 1.06 ± 0.58 mm for controls (P < 0.0001). After multivariable adjustment for demographic characteristics, the mean difference of HIV-infected participants vs. controls was 0.188 mm [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.113–0.263, P < 0.0001]. Further adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors modestly attenuated the HIV association (0.148 mm, 95% CI 0.072–0.224, P = 0.0001). For the common carotid, HIV infection was independently associated with greater IMT (0.033 mm, 95% CI 0.010–0.056, P = 0.005). The association of HIV infection with IMT was similar to that of smoking, which was also associated with greater IMT (internal 0.173 mm, common 0.020 mm). Conclusion:Even after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors, HIV infection was accompanied by more extensive atherosclerosis measured by IMT. The stronger association of HIV infection with IMT in the internal/bulb region compared with the common carotid may explain previous discrepancies in the literature. The association of HIV infection with IMT was similar to that of traditional CVD risk factors, such as smoking.

Vitamin D status is associated with relapse rate in pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis

We sought to determine if vitamin D status, a risk factor for multiple sclerosis, is associated with the rate of subsequent clinical relapses in pediatric‐onset multiple sclerosis.

Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels are related to MRI activity in relapsing multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE To 1) compare monthly serum levels of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and tissue inhibitor of MMP-type 1 (TIMP-1) in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) versus healthy controls and 2) determine the relationship among monthly serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 and MRI activity. BACKGROUND Activated T-cells and macrophages secrete MMPs that may facilitate their migration across vascular subendothelial basement membranes into the CNS. The serum concentration of MMP-9 is reported to be higher in patients with RRMS than healthy controls. METHODS Monthly evaluations including gadolinium-enhanced (Gd+) brain MRI and measures of serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 were performed for up to 15 months in 24 patients with RRMS and for up to 4 months in 10 controls. RESULTS Serum MMP-9 but not TIMP-1 levels are elevated in RRMS patients compared to healthy controls (p = 0.025, p = 0.61). In a univariate analysis, high MMP-9 and low TIMP-1 levels precede appearance of new Gd+ lesions (respectively; odds ratio = 3.3, p = 0.008; odds ratio = 2.2, p = 0.086). In a multivariate analysis, in comparison to months when MMP-9 is low and TIMP-1 high, MRI scans obtained the month following high MMP-9 and low TIMP-1 serum concentrations are more likely to report new Gd+ lesions (p = 0.0006, odds ratio = 21.5). CONCLUSION An increase in the activity of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) relative to tissue inhibitor of MMP-type 1 (TIMP-1) may be related to formation of new MS lesions, suggesting that serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 may be surrogate markers of disease activity in relapsing-remitting MS.