Peter Bauer-Gottwein

Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.

The role of remote sensing in hydrological modelling of the Okavango Delta, Botswana.

A coupled surface water-groundwater model of the Okavango Delta has been built based on the United States Geological Survey software MODFLOW 2000 including the SFR2 package for stream-flow routing. It will provide a new tool for evaluating water management and climate change scenarios. The deltas size and limited accessibility make direct, on the ground data acquisition difficult. Remote sensing methods are the most promising source of acquiring spatially distributed data for both model input parameters and calibration. Topography, aquifer thickness, channel positions, evapotranspiration and precipitation data are all based on remote sensing. Simulated flooding patterns are compared to patterns derived from visible to thermal NOAA-AVHRR data and microwave radar ENVISAT-ASAR data.

River monitoring from satellite radar altimetry in the Zambezi River basin

Satellite radar altimetry can be used to monitor surface water levels from space. While current and past altimetry missions were designed to study oceans, retracking the waveforms returned over land allows data to be retrieved for smaller water bodies or narrow rivers. The objective of this study is the assessment of the potential for river monitoring from radar altimetry in terms of water level and discharge in the Zambezi River basin. Retracked Envisat altimetry data were extracted over the Zambezi River basin using a detailed river mask based on Landsat imagery. This allowed for stage measurements to be obtained for rivers down to 80 m wide with an RMSE relative to in situ levels of 0.32 to 0.72 m at different locations. The altimetric levels were then converted to discharge using three different methods adapted to different data-availability scenarios: first with an in situ rating curve available, secondly with one simultaneous field measurement of cross-section and discharge, and finally with only historical discharge data available. For the two locations at which all three methods could be applied, the accuracies of the different methods were found to be comparable, with RMSE values ranging from 4.1 to 6.5 % of the mean annual in situ gauged amplitude for the first method and from 6.9 to 13.8 % for the second and third methods. The precision obtained with the different methods was analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations and also showed comparable values for the three approaches with standard deviations found between 5.7 and 7.2 % of the mean annual in situ gauged amplitude for the first method and from 8.7 to 13.0 % for the second and third methods.

Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However, these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in temporal patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes in precipitation will reduce runoff, decrease hydropower production (with accompanying increases in thermal generation), and increase irrigation water use, while higher temperatures will shift power demand from winter to summer months. The combined impact of these effects will generally make it more challenging to balance agricultural, power, and environmental objectives in the operation of Iberian reservoirs, though some impacts could be mitigated by better alignment between temporal patterns of irrigation and power demands.

Systems Analysis Approach to the Design of Efficient Water Pricing Policies under the EU Water Framework Directive

AbstractEconomic theory suggests that water pricing can contribute to efficient management of water scarcity. The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a major legislative effort to introduce the use of economic instruments to encourage efficient water use and achieve environmental management objectives. However, the design and implementation of economic instruments for water management, including water pricing, has emerged as a challenging aspect of WFD implementation. This study demonstrates the use of a systems analysis approach to designing and comparing two economic approaches to efficient management of groundwater and surface water given EU WFD ecological flow requirements. Under the first approach, all wholesale water users in a river basin face the same volumetric price for water. This water price does not vary in space or in time, and surface water and groundwater are priced at the same rate. Under the second approach, surface water is priced using a volumetric price, while groun...

Calibrating a salt water intrusion model with time-domain electromagnetic data.

Salt water intrusion models are commonly used to support groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers. Concentration data used for model calibration are often sparse and limited in spatial extent. With airborne and ground-based electromagnetic surveys, electrical resistivity models can be obtained to provide high-resolution three-dimensional models of subsurface resistivity variations that can be related to geology and salt concentrations on a regional scale. Several previous studies have calibrated salt water intrusion models with geophysical data, but are typically limited to the use of the inverted electrical resistivity models without considering the measured geophysical data directly. This induces a number of errors related to inconsistent scales between the geophysical and hydrologic models and the applied regularization constraints in the geophysical inversion. To overcome these errors, we perform a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion (CHI) in which we use a salt water intrusion model to interpret the geophysical data and guide the geophysical inversion. We refer to this methodology as a Coupled Hydrogeophysical Inversion-State (CHI-S), in which simulated salt concentrations are transformed to an electrical resistivity model, after which a geophysical forward response is calculated and compared with the measured geophysical data. This approach was applied for a field site in Santa Cruz County, California, where a time-domain electromagnetic (TDEM) dataset was collected. For this location, a simple two-dimensional cross-sectional salt water intrusion model was developed, for which we estimated five uniform aquifer properties, incorporating the porosity that was also part of the employed petrophysical relationship. In addition, one geophysical parameter was estimated. The six parameters could be resolved well by fitting more than 300 apparent resistivities that were comprised by the TDEM dataset. Except for three sounding locations, all the TDEM data could be fitted close to a root-mean-square error of 1. Possible explanations for the poor fit of these soundings are the assumption of spatial uniformity, fixed boundary conditions and the neglecting of 3D effects in the groundwater model and the TDEM forward responses.

Variable density groundwater flow: From modelling to applications

Arid and semi-arid climates are mainly characterised as those areas where precipitation is less (and often considerably less) than potential evapotranspiration. These climate regions are ideal environments for salt to accumulate in natural soil and groundwater settings since evaporation and transpiration essentially remove freshwater from the system, leaving residual salts behind. Similarly, the characteristically low precipitation rates reduce the potential for salt to be diluted by rainfall. Thus arid and semi-arid regions make ideal ‘salt concentrator’ hydrologic environments. Indeed, salt flats, playas, sabkhas and saline lakes, for example, are ubiquitous features of arid and semi-arid regions throughout the world (Yechieli and Wood,2002). In such settings, variable density flow phenomena are expected to be important, especially where hypersaline brines overlie less dense groundwater at depth. In contrast, seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers is a global phenomenon that is not constrained to only arid and semi-arid regions of the globe and is inherently a variable density flow problem by its very nature. These two examples make it clear that variable density flow problems occur in, but importantly extend beyond, arid and semi-arid regions of the globe. The intention of this chapter is therefore not to limit ourselves to modelling arid zone hydrological systems, but rather to present a more general treatment of variable density groundwater flow and solute transport phenomena and modelling. The concepts presented in this chapter are therefore not climatologically constrained to arid or semi-arid zones of the world, although they do apply equally there.

Optimization of Multipurpose Reservoir Systems Using Power Market Models

AbstractHydroeconomic models have been used to determine policies for efficient allocation of scarce water resources. Hydropower benefits are typically represented through exogenous electricity prices, but these do not consider the effect that the power market can have on the hydropower release policy and vice versa. To improve the representation of hydropower benefits in hydroeconomic models, an application of stochastic dynamic programming, known as the water value method, was used to maximize irrigation benefits while minimizing the costs of power generation within a power market. The method yields optimal operation rules that maximize current and expected future benefits as a function of reservoir level, week of the year, and inflow state. The method was tested on the Iberian Peninsula and performed better than traditional approaches that use exogenous prices: resulting operation rules were more realistic and sensitive to hydrological variability. Internally calculated hydropower prices provided bette...

Modeling ecohydrological impacts of land management and water use in the Silver Creek basin, Idaho

A number of anthropogenic stressors, including land use change and intensive water use, have caused stream habitat deterioration in arid and semiarid climates throughout the western U.S. These often contribute to high stream temperatures, a widespread water quality problem. Stream temperature is an important indicator of stream ecosystem health and is affected by catchment-scale climate and hydrological processes, morphology, and riparian vegetation. To properly manage affected systems and achieve ecosystem sustainability, it is important to understand the relative impact of these factors. In this study, we predict relative impacts of different stressors using an integrated catchment-scale ecohydrological model that simulates hydrological processes, stream temperature, and fish growth. This type of model offers a suitable measure of ecosystem services because it provides information about the reproductive capability of fish under different conditions. We applied the model to Silver Creek, Idaho, a stream highly valued for its world-renowned trout fishery. The simulations indicated that intensive water use by agriculture and climate change are both major contributors to habitat degradation in the study area. Agricultural practices that increase water use efficiency and mitigate drainage runoff are feasible and can have positive impacts on the ecosystem. All of the mitigation strategies simulated reduced stream temperatures to varying degrees; however, not all resulted in increases in fish growth. The results indicate that temperature dynamics, rather than point statistics, determine optimal growth conditions for fish. Temperature dynamics are influenced by surface water-groundwater interactions. Combined restoration strategies that can achieve ecosystem stability under climate change should be further explored.

Spatial mapping of submerged cave systems by means of airborne electromagnetics: an emerging technology to support protection of endangered karst aquifers

Karst aquifers represent important but very vulnerable sources for water supply to a significant part of the Earth’s population. For sustainable use of these resources, development of integrated management tools based on numerical groundwater models is required. In principle karst aquifers are characterized by the presence of two distinct flow domains: the limestone matrix fractures and the conduits. A flow model of karst aquifers requires detailed, spatially distributed information on the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer and flow paths. Geophysical methods determining the distribution of the electrical resistivities within the subsurface could provide such information. An international scientific research project was initiated to explore the potential of airborne electromagnetic mapping for providing such innovative information for improving groundwater modelling of karst aquifers. The project study area is located in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve located in Yucatan, Mexico, a coastal wetland of international importance. As a first step ground geoelectric and ground electromagnetic measurements were performed in March 2006 to determine the electrical properties of the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve subsurface environment. These results were used for 3D forward modelling to calculate the expected airborne electromagnetic response. Based on these promising results, an airborne pilot survey was performed in 2007 to evaluate the applicability of airborne electromagnetic methodology. This survey covers an area of 40 square kilometres above the well-mapped Ox Bel Ha cave system. The results showed that the signature of the cave system could be clearly detected. The pilot survey offered as well the chance to define the limits of current state-of-the-art airborne data acquisition and inversion. The study helped to define the needs for further developments and improvements to establish the frequency domain electromagnetic method as a practical karst exploration method.