Peter Bearse

Why poor countries rely mostly on redistribution in-kind

Abstract We present a model in which the crucial distinction between rich and poor countries is that governments in rich countries have access to a more productive tax collection technology than governments in poor countries. Since the tax collection technology in poor countries is poor, the quality of the public service is low. Therefore many households at the top of the income distribution opt out of the public service. The median voter takes this into consideration and allocates a larger share of the public budget to redistribution in-kind (public service) than to redistribution in cash.

On the Political Economy of Means-Tested Education Vouchers

We use computational experiments to study the impact of means-tested education vouchers on the level and distribution of educational expenditures.

Information complexity criteria for detecting influential observations in dynamic multivariate linear models using the genetic algorithm

We develop a new information theoretic approach for detecting influential observations in dynamic linear models of multivariate time series known as vector autoregressions (VARs). Our approach consists of two stages. In the first, we use a Genetic Algorithm (GA) with Bozdogans informational complexity (ICOMP) criterion as the fitness function to select a near optimal subset VAR model. In the second stage, we use ICOMP with case-deletion on the subset VAR chosen by the GA to detect influential observations. Our approach yields an intuitive, practical and rigorous two-dimensional graphical representation of influential observations in multivariate time series data that accounts for both lack-of-fit and model complexity in one criterion function. We demonstrate our approach on multivariate macroeconomic time series data.

Composition of Government Budget, Non-Single Peakedness and Majority Voting

In this paper we study whether majority voting equilibria exist when preferences over public policies are not single-peaked. The government levies a proportional income tax. Tax revennues is used to finance a uniform lump-sum transfer and public education. Individuals vote on the composition of the government budget. We show that the single-crossing property cannot be invoked to establish existence of a majority voting equilibrium.

EFFICIENT SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF DURATION MODELS WITH UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY

This paper develops a new semiparametric approach for the estimation of hazard functions in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. The hazard function is specified parametrically, whereas the distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity is indirectly estimated using the method of kernels. The semiparametric efficiency bounds are derived. The estimator obtains these bounds in large samples.The authors thank Yongmiao Chen, James Heckman, Hidehiko Ichimura, Tony Lancaster, Qi Li, Adrian Pagan, Barry Smith, two anonymous referees, and the co-editor for helpful input. We particularly thank Steven Stern, who prompted us toward this line of research. Any errors are those of the authors. Research funding for Rilstone was provided by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Multivariate Regressions, Genetic Algorithms, and Information Complexity: A Three Way Hybrid

We develop a computationally feasible intelligent data mining and knowledge discovery technique to select the best subset of predictors in multivariate regression (MR) models. Our approach integrates novel statistical modeling procedures based on the information-theoretic measure of complexity (ICOMP) criterion with the genetic algorithm (GA). When ICOMP is used as the fitness function, the GA, which by itself is an extremely clever non-local optimization algorithm, becomes an intelligent statistical model selection device capable of pruning combinatorially large numbers of sub-models to obtain an optimal or near-optimal subset MR model of multivariate data. We demonstrate our approach by determining the best predictors of taste and odor in a Japanese rice wine (i.e., sake) data set.

Economic implications of raising the threshold funding limits on US Small Business Innovation Research awards

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate empirically the economic implications of increasing the threshold funding limits on Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) awards. Specifically, we estimate the impact of an increase in an SBIR Phase II research award amount on the likelihood that the funded project will reach technical completion, that is, it will not be discontinued early or fail. Although an increase in the threshold amount of Phase II awards was mandated by the Act of 1992, and although a recent SBIR policy directive allows such, the economic implications of an increase have yet to be considered in any systematic manner. Second, we offer a call for a further evaluation of the SBIR program, and more broadly a prospective evaluation of public-private partnership science and technology programs, along the lines of an investigation of the determinants of milestone successes and failures. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Higher order bias reduction of kernel density and density derivative estimation at boundary points

A new, direct method is developed for reducing, to an arbitrary order, the boundary bias of kernel density and density derivative estimators. The basic asymptotic properties of the estimators are derived. Simple examples are provided. A number of simulations are reported, which demonstrate the viability and efficacy of the approach compared to several popular alternatives.