Peter Bramley

Toward a more complete understanding of the association between a hepatitis C sustained viral response and cause-specific outcomes

Sustained viral response (SVR) is the optimal outcome of hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, yet more detailed data are required to confirm its clinical value. Individuals receiving treatment in 1996‐2011 were identified using the Scottish HCV clinical database. We sourced data on 10 clinical events: liver, nonliver, and all‐cause mortality; first hospitalisation for severe liver morbidity (SLM); cardiovascular disease (CVD); respiratory disorders; neoplasms; alcohol‐intoxication; drug intoxication; and violence‐related injury (note: the latter three events were selected a priori to gauge ongoing chaotic lifestyle behaviours). We determined the association between SVR attainment and each outcome event, in terms of the relative hazard reduction and absolute risk reduction (ARR). We tested for an interaction between SVR and liver disease severity (mild vs. nonmild), defining mild disease as an aspartate aminotransferase‐to‐platelet ratio index (APRI) <0.7. Our cohort comprised 3,385 patients (mean age: 41.6 years), followed‐up for a median 5.3 years (interquartile range: 3.3‐8.2). SVR was associated with a reduced risk of liver mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.24; P < 0.001), nonliver mortality (AHR, 0.68; P = 0.026), all‐cause mortality (AHR, 0.49; P < 0.001), SLM (AHR, 0.21; P < 0.001), CVD (AHR, 0.70; P = 0.001), alcohol intoxication (AHR, 0.52; P = 0.003), and violence‐related injury (AHR, 0.51; P = 0.002). After 7.5 years, SVR was associated with significant ARRs for liver mortality, all‐cause mortality, SLM, and CVD (each 3.0%‐4.7%). However, we detected a strong interaction, in that ARRs were considerably higher for individuals with nonmild disease than for individuals with mild disease. Conclusions: The conclusions are 3‐fold: (1) Overall, SVR is associated with reduced hazard for a range of hepatic and nonhepatic events; (2) an association between SVR and behavioral events is consistent with SVR patients leading healthier lives; and (3) the short‐term value of SVR is greatest for those with nonmild disease. (Hepatology 2015;62:355–364

Excess liver-related morbidity of chronic hepatitis C patients, who achieve a sustained viral response, and are discharged from care†

Our objective was to address two shortfalls in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) literature: (1) Few data exist comparing post‐treatment liver‐related mortality/morbidity in HCV‐sustained virologic response (SVR) patients to non‐SVR patients and (2) no data exist examining liver‐related morbidity among treatment response subgroups, particularly among noncirrhotic SVR patients, a group who in the main are discharged from care without further follow‐up. A retrospective cohort of 1,215 previously naïve HCV interferon patients (treated 1996‐2007) was derived using HCV clinical databases from nine Scottish clinics. Patients were followed up post‐treatment for a mean of 5.3 years. (1) By Cox‐regression, liver‐related hospital episodes (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.15‐0.34) and liver‐related mortality (AHR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.09‐0.58) were significantly lower in SVR patients, compared to non‐SVR patients. (2) Rates of liver‐related hospitalization were elevated among all treatment subgroups, compared to the general population: Among noncirrhotic SVR patients, adjusted standardized morbidity ratio (SMBR) up to 5.9 (95% CI: 4.5‐8.0); among all SVR patients, SMBR up to 10.5 (95% CI 8.7‐12.9); and among non‐SVR patients, SMBR up to 53.2 (95% CI: 49.4‐57.2). Considerable elevation was also noted among patients who have spontaneously resolved their HCV infection (a control group used to gauge the extent to which lifestyle factors, and not chronic HCV, can contribute to liver‐related morbidity), with SMBR up to 26.8 (95% CI: 25.3‐28.3). Conclusions: (1) Patients achieving an SVR were more than four times less likely to be hospitalized, or die for a liver‐related reason, than non‐SVR patients and (2) although discharged, noncirrhotic SVR patients harbor a disproportionate burden of liver‐related morbidity (i.e., up to six times that of the general population). Furthermore, alarming levels of liver‐related morbidity in spontaneous resolvers is an important finding warranting further study. (HEPATOLOGY 2011;)

Ranking predictors of a sustained viral response for patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin in Scotland.

Objectives From the literature on the hepatitis C virus, the existence of a gap between a sustained virologic response (SVR) attainable in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) versus routine practice is not clear. Further, in terms of the pretreatment prediction of SVR, to date, studies have focused only on reporting the magnitude of association (MOA) between each predictor and an SVR. They fail to acknowledge that a predictor with a large MOA is of little value to clinicians if it has low variability in the treatment population. Methods Hepatitis C virus clinical databases were used to derive a large, representative cohort of Scottish pegylated interferon and ribavirin initiates. Results Overall, 39% [123/315, 95% confidence interval (CI) 34–45%] of genotype 1 and 70% (414/594, 95% CI 66–73%) of genotype 2/3 patients achieved an SVR; this compares with the pooled estimates of 47% for genotype 1 (95% CI 41–52%) and 80% for genotype 2/3 (95% CI 75–85%) RCT participants. Significant predictors of SVR identified from logistic regression were ranked on the basis of the akaike information criteria (reflecting an approach that will account for each predictor’s MOA and variability) as follows: (i) genotype, % increase in akaike information criteria of the final model when variables are excluded, 58.49%; (ii) &ggr;-glutamyl transferase, 18.64%; (iii) platelet count, 6.48%; (iv) alanine aminotransferase quotient, 4.63%; (v) ever infected with hepatitis B virus, 4.31% and (vi) sex, 3.10%. Conclusion (i) The proportion of patients attaining an SVR in Scottish routine practice is marginally lower than in RCTs and (ii) other than genotype, &ggr;-glutamyl transferase emerges as a valuable predictor of an SVR in routine practice. Further, we demonstrate an approach to more clearly discern the predictive value of response predictors.

Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison‐based hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland

Abstract Background and Aims People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. In Scotland, national survey data indicate lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 versus 7.3 per 100 person‐years), but a 2.3‐fold elevated transmission risk among recently released (< 6 months) PWID. We evaluated the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID and the impact of prison‐related prevention interventions, including scaling‐up direct‐acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison. Design Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration. Setting Scotland, UK. Participants A simulated population of PWID. Measurements Population‐attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID. Decrease in HCV incidence and chronic prevalence due to current levels of prison opiate substitution therapy (OST; 57% coverage) and HCV treatment, as well as scaling‐up DAAs in prison and/or preventing the elevated risk associated with prison release. Findings Incarceration contributes 27.7% [PAF; 95% credible interval (CrI) –3.1 to 51.1%] of HCV transmission among PWID in Scotland. During the next 15 years, current HCV treatment rates (10.4/6.8 per 1000 incarcerated/community PWID annually), with existing prison OST, could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence among all PWID by a relative 10.7% (95% CrI = 8.4–13.3%) and 9.7% (95% CrI = 7.7–12.1%), respectively. Conversely, without prison OST, HCV incidence and chronic prevalence would decrease by 3.1% (95% CrI = –28.5 to 18.0%) and 4.7% (95% CrI = –11.3 to 14.5%). Additionally, preventing the heightened risk among recently released PWID could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence by 45.0% (95% CrI = 19.7–57.5%) and 33.3% (95% CrI = 15.6–43.6%) or scaling‐up prison HCV treatments to 80% of chronic PWID prison entrants with sufficient sentences (>16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95% CrI = 38.0–51.3%) and 45.5% (95% CrI = 39.3–51.0%), respectively. Conclusions Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison release can contribute significantly to hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs. Scaling‐up hepatitis C virus treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.

Mortality in hepatitis C patients who achieve a sustained viral response compared to the general population

BACKGROUND & AIMS The number of people living with previous hepatitis C infection that have attained a sustained viral response (SVR) is expected to grow rapidly. So far, the prognosis of this group relative to the general population is unclear. METHODS Individuals attaining SVR in Scotland in 1996-2011 were identified using a national database. Through record-linkage, we obtained cause-specific mortality data complete to Dec 2013. We calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare the frequency of mortality in SVR patients to the general population. In a parallel analysis, we used Cox regression to identify modifiable patient characteristics associated with post-SVR mortality. RESULTS We identified 1824 patients, followed on average for 5.2years after SVR. In total, 78 deaths were observed. Overall, all-cause mortality was 1.9 times more frequent for SVR patients than the general population (SMR: 1.86; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-2.32). Significant cause-specific elevations were seen for death due to primary liver cancer (SMR: 23.50; 95% CI: 12.23-45.16), and death due to drug-related causes (SMR: 6.58, 95% CI: 4.15-10.45). Together these two causes accounted for 66% of the total excess death observed. All of the modifiable characteristics associated with increased mortality were markers either of heavy alcohol use or injecting drug use. Individuals without these behavioural markers (32.8% of cohort) experienced equivalent survival to the general population (SMR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.41-1.18) CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in Scottish SVR patients is higher overall than the general population. The excess was driven by death from drug-related causes and liver cancer. Health risk behaviours emerged as important modifiable determinants of mortality in this population. LAY SUMMARY Patients cured of hepatitis C through treatment had a higher mortality rate overall than the general population. Most of the surplus mortality was due to drug-related causes and death from liver cancer. A history of heavy alcohol and injecting drug use were associated with a higher mortality risk.

Sofosbuvir and Daclatasvir Anti–Viral Therapy Fails to Clear HEV Viremia and Restore Reactive T Cells in a HEV/HCV Co-Infected Liver Transplant Recipient

Figure 1. --Q4 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 Dear Editors: We read with great interest the recently published report ‘Sofosbuvir Inhibits Hepatitis E Virus Replication In Vitro and Results in an Additive Effect When CombinedWith Ribavirin’ by Dao Thi et al. The authors suggest that their important in vitro observations require a clinical proof-of-concept study to confirm that sofosbuvir might be considered as therapy for treatment of chronic hepatitis E. We have recently treated a patient with chronic hepatitis C (HCV genotype 3) and hepatitis E (HEV genotype 3) coinfection post liver transplantation (immunosuppressed with tacrolimus and azathioprine) with a 12-week course of daily sofosbuvir (400mg) and daclatasvir (60mg), in view of previous ribavirin intolerance. In contrast with the in vitro observations, we report that sofosbuvir without ribavirin was not effective in treating chronic HEV or restoring HEV specific reactive T cells in an immunocompromised patient. In our patient, after commencing treatment with the above regimen, serum alanine aminotransferase normalized after one week and HCV RNA was undetectable after 4 weeks of treatment. However, antiviral treatment had negligible effect on HEV viremia, as measured by quantitative HEV RNA in serum (Figure 1A). Variable T-cell immunity to HEV infection has been previously reported; although in one report HEV specific T cell responses could be detected in resolved HEV infection controls, no IFN-g response was observed in chronic HEV infection when cells were stimulated with ORF-2 and 3 peptides suggesting an impairment of adaptive responses. In our patient, HEV specific Tcell responses were monitored before and during antiviral treatment using HEV genotype 3 ORF-2 and 3 overlapping peptide stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) cultures overnight and measurement of intracellular IL-2, TNF-a and IFN-g by flow cytometry. Modest CD4 and CD8 T-cell cytokine responses were detected in response to HEV peptide stimulation. In the pre-treatment samples the relative number of cells found reactive to HEV peptide stimulation was raised in TNF-a secreting CD4 andCD8T cells and in IL-2 producing CD8 cells. CD4 and CD8 T cells expressing elevated IFN-g and TNF-a were observed at 1 month of therapy. After 2 months of treatment, cells were non-reactive to HEV peptide stimulation. Alteration in the profile of cytokine response to HEV peptide stimulation over treatment may represent a change in tissue mobilization of reactive T cells with lymphopenia

Evidence of continued injecting drug use after attaining sustained treatment-induced clearance of the hepatitis C virus: implications for reinfection

BACKGROUND People who inject drugs (PWID) are at the greatest risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, yet are often denied immediate treatment due to fears of on-going risk behaviour. Our principal objective was to examine evidence of continued injecting drug use among PWID following successful treatment for HCV and attainment of a sustained viral response (SVR). METHODS PWID who attained SVR between 1992 and June 2012 were selected from the National Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database. Hospitalisation and mortality records were sourced for these patients using record linkage techniques. Our primary outcome variable was any hospitalisation or death, which was indicative of injecting drugs post-SVR. RESULTS The cohort comprised 1170 PWID (mean age at SVR 39.6y; 76% male). The Kaplan Meier estimate of incurring the primary outcome after three years of SVR was 10.59% (95% CI, 8.75-12.79) After adjusting for confounding, the risk of an injection related hospital episode or death post-SVR was significantly increased with advancing year of SVR: AHR:1.07 per year (95% CI, 1.01-1.14), having a pre-SVR acute alcohol intoxication-related hospital episode: AHR:1.83 (95% CI, 1.29-2.60), and having a pre-SVR opiate or injection-related hospital episode: AHR:2.59 (95% CI, 1.84-3.64). CONCLUSION Despite attaining the optimal treatment outcome, these data indicate that an increasing significant minority of PWID continue to inject post-SVR at an intensity which leads to either hospitalisation or death and increased risk of reinfection.

Attendance at specialist hepatitis clinics and initiation of antiviral treatment among persons chronically infected with hepatitis C: examining the early impact of Scotland's Hepatitis C Action Plan

Primary goals of the Hepatitis C Action Plan for Scotland Phase II (May 2008–March 2011) were to increase, among persons chronically infected with the hepatitis C (HCV) virus, attendance at specialist outpatient clinics and initiation on antiviral therapy. We evaluated progress towards these goals by comparing the odds, across time, of (a) first clinic attendance within 12 months of HCV diagnosis (n = 9747) and (b) initiation on antiviral treatment within 12 months of first attendance (n = 5736). Record linkage between the national HCV diagnosis (1996–2009) and HCV clinical (1996–2010) databases and logistic regression analyses were conducted for both outcomes. For outcome (a), 32% and 45% in the respective pre‐Phase II (before 1 May 2008) and Phase II periods attended a specialist clinic within 12 months of diagnosis; the odds of attendance within 12 months increased over time (OR = 1.05 per year, 95% CI: 1.04–1.07), but was not significantly greater for persons diagnosed with HCV in the Phase II era, compared with the pre‐Phase II era (OR = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.9–1.3), after adjustment for temporal trend. For outcome (b), 13% and 28% were initiated on treatment within 12 months of their first clinic attendance in the pre‐Phase II and Phase II periods, respectively. Higher odds of treatment initiation were associated with first clinic attendance in the Phase II (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.5–2.4), compared with the pre‐Phase II era. Results were consistent with a positive impact of the Hepatitis C Action Plan on the treatment of chronically infected individuals, but further monitoring is required to confirm a sustained effect.

Modelling the impact of incarceration and prison-based HCV treatment on HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland

Abstract Background and Aims People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. In Scotland, national survey data indicate lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 versus 7.3 per 100 person‐years), but a 2.3‐fold elevated transmission risk among recently released (< 6 months) PWID. We evaluated the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID and the impact of prison‐related prevention interventions, including scaling‐up direct‐acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison. Design Dynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration. Setting Scotland, UK. Participants A simulated population of PWID. Measurements Population‐attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID. Decrease in HCV incidence and chronic prevalence due to current levels of prison opiate substitution therapy (OST; 57% coverage) and HCV treatment, as well as scaling‐up DAAs in prison and/or preventing the elevated risk associated with prison release. Findings Incarceration contributes 27.7% [PAF; 95% credible interval (CrI) –3.1 to 51.1%] of HCV transmission among PWID in Scotland. During the next 15 years, current HCV treatment rates (10.4/6.8 per 1000 incarcerated/community PWID annually), with existing prison OST, could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence among all PWID by a relative 10.7% (95% CrI = 8.4–13.3%) and 9.7% (95% CrI = 7.7–12.1%), respectively. Conversely, without prison OST, HCV incidence and chronic prevalence would decrease by 3.1% (95% CrI = –28.5 to 18.0%) and 4.7% (95% CrI = –11.3 to 14.5%). Additionally, preventing the heightened risk among recently released PWID could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence by 45.0% (95% CrI = 19.7–57.5%) and 33.3% (95% CrI = 15.6–43.6%) or scaling‐up prison HCV treatments to 80% of chronic PWID prison entrants with sufficient sentences (>16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95% CrI = 38.0–51.3%) and 45.5% (95% CrI = 39.3–51.0%), respectively. Conclusions Incarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison release can contribute significantly to hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs. Scaling‐up hepatitis C virus treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.

A matched comparison study of hepatitis C treatment outcomes in the prison and community setting, and an analysis of the impact of prison release or transfer during therapy

Prisoners are a priority group for hepatitis C (HCV) treatment. Although treatment durations will become shorter using directly acting antivirals (DAAs), nearly half of prison sentences in Scotland are too short to allow completion of DAA therapy prior to release. The purpose of this study was to compare treatment outcomes between prison‐ and community‐based patients and to examine the impact of prison release or transfer during therapy. A national database was used to compare treatment outcomes between prison treatment initiates and a matched community sample. Additional data were collected to investigate the impact of release or transfer on treatment outcomes. Treatment‐naïve patients infected with genotype 1/2/3/4 and treated between 2009 and 2012 were eligible for inclusion. 291 prison initiates were matched with 1137 community initiates: SVRs were 61% (95% CI 55%–66%) and 63% (95% CI 60%–66%), respectively. Odds of achieving a SVR were not significantly associated with prisoner status (P=.33). SVRs were 74% (95% CI 65%–81%), 59% (95% CI 42%–75%) and 45% (95% CI 29%–62%) among those not released or transferred, transferred during treatment, or released during treatment, respectively. Odds of achieving a SVR were significantly associated with release (P<.01), but not transfer (P=.18). Prison‐based HCV treatment achieves similar outcomes to community‐based treatment, with those not released or transferred during treatment doing particularly well. Transfer or release during therapy should be avoided whenever possible, using anticipatory planning and medical holds where appropriate.