Peter Buchholz

Evaluating Supply Risk Patterns and Supply and Demand Trends for Mineral Raw Materials: Assessment of the Zinc Market

The economic growth of emerging nations will inevitably require an increasing supply of primary mineral raw materials and metals. Fears about the availability of mineral raw materials have been raised during resource booms in the past and also during the last decade. This chapter refers to a recently developed method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks and applies it to the case of zinc. By analysing boom-and-bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying problematic market situations for zinc supply. This method, which is based on a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach and a numerical evaluation model, makes it possible to identify supply shortage risks at an early stage. On the basis of this market assessment, companies are in a better position to make informed decisions and can use suitable risk mitigation instruments to counteract problematic developments.

Current Status of Natural Resources—An Overview

Two scenarios must be distinguished in an assessment of the supply of natural resources: the supply from domestic sources and the supply from foreign sources.

The Raw Material Requirements for Energy Systems

The new energy systems will be significantly more diverse as compared to the traditional energy technologies. Increasingly distinctive and mostly decentralized technologies will be added to the traditional generating technologies, such as coal and natural gas power stations, that dominate today’s energy systems.

Supply of Raw Materials and Effects of the Global Economy

The availability of raw materials is influenced by the supply- and demand-sides. Furthermore, the supply of raw materials—in general and including those for the new energy systems of the future—is dependent on developments in the global mining business and global economy. Political guidance can play an important role in this situation.

Globale Angebotskonzentration von mineralischen Rohstoffen und Zwischenprodukten

Rohstoffe sind eine wesentliche Grundlage fur den Erhalt des Industrie- und Innovationsstandortes Deutschland. Insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund der Energiewende gilt zu berucksichtigen, dass sich der Rohstoffbedarf fur die Energieerzeugung im 21. Jahrhundert grundsatzlich andern konnte (Kap. 1, 7, 8, 10).