Peter C. Bishop

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Purpose – The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach – The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings – The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications – Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value – Scenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

The University Foresight Network The Search for Common Ground among Foresight Educators

Five academic programs in futures studies and strategic foresight collaborated over the 2012–2013 academic year for the purpose of investigating what they were teaching, and particularly what was common among the programs. Each of the five programs presented its curriculum to the other programs and answered their questions. Peter Bishop from the Houston program and Jim Dator from the Hawaii program synthesized the results with a special focus on a comparison of their two programs. Bishop presented the results at the biannual meeting of the World Futures Studies Federation in Bucharest, Romania, in July 2013.

Baseline Analysis: The Epistemology of Scenario Support

Foresight professionals have been developing and sharing scenarios about the future for a half century now. They argue that the only way to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties about the future is to offer multiple futures (scenarios) rather than single-valued predictions. Nevertheless, most forecasters still make predictions because the process of supporting them with evidence is well known and similar to supporting conclusions in history and science. This article presents an argument for supporting scenarios using evidence through a process of critically thinking about the assumptions required to support the most likely future. Using this more transparent approach allows other professionals to understand, discuss, and critique the support for scenarios as they do the conclusions in other disciplines. That ability to peer review futures work could build the foundation for a measure of credibility and legitimacy that those other disciplines enjoy.

The three horizons of educational change

Purpose – This paper aims to describe three potential disruptions that could close the current era of public and higher education and open potentially new eras.Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs secondary research, scanning, and analysis.Findings – The three potential disruptions for education are: the availability of almost unlimited information on the internet; open source education leading to the decoupling of learning from credentialing; and the ability to understand the learning process in general and that of every learner through the application of learning analytics on the data being generated by students learning online.Research limitations/implications – These findings are conjectures. They are scenarios of some relatively current and longer‐term futures; they are not formal predictions. But they might stimulate further reflection and research while the community monitors whether these scenarios will occur or not.Practical implications – Educational institutions should monitor the de...

The Case for Foresight Education

This editorial briefly lays out the case for including foresight in all schools. It also introduces the authors and their articles in this special issue.

Models of Change

This chapter introduces some of the key concepts underlying foresight, and provides a brief overview on methods. These concepts and methods permeate the curriculum and will reappear throughout the text. They are important enough to merit a separate treatment.

Perspectives on the Future

This chapter covers material for a proposed new course. As the foresight field grows and evolves, it becomes more difficult to fit new material into existing courses. Eventually a new course becomes necessary, presenting a challenge to an already full core-curriculum. Thus, the material here will likely find its home as an elective, and fills a role of holding tank for some of the newer perspectives, skills, and content that has emerged.