Peter C. le Roux

Extrapolating population size from the occupancy-abundance relationship and the scaling pattern of occupancy

The estimation of species abundances at regional scales requires a cost-efficient method that can be applied to existing broadscale data. We compared the performance of eight models for estimating species abundance and community structure from presence-absence maps of the southern African avifauna. Six models were based on the intraspecific occupancy-abundance relationship (OAR); the other two on the scaling pattern of species occupancy (SPO), which quantifies the decline in species range size when measured across progressively finer scales. The performance of these models was examined using five tests: the first three compared the predicted community structure against well-documented macroecological patterns; the final two compared published abundance estimates for rare species and the total regional abundance estimate against predicted abundances. Approximately two billion birds were estimated as occurring in South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland. SPO models outperformed the OAR models, due to OAR models assuming environmental homogeneity and yielding scale-dependent estimates. Therefore, OAR models should only be applied across small, homogenous areas. By contrast, SPO models are suitable for data at larger spatial scales because they are based on the scale dependence of species range size and incorporate environmental heterogeneity (assuming fractal habitat structure or performing a Bayesian estimate of occupancy). Therefore, SPO models are recommended for assemblage-scale regional abundance estimation based on spatially explicit presence-absence data.

The Use of Size as an Estimator of Age in the Subantarctic Cushion Plant, Azorella selago (Apiaceae)

Abstract Plant species with morphological features that enable the age of individuals to be estimated are potentially useful for understanding past environmental conditions. Here, the size and growth rate of the cushion plant, Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceae), are examined to determine if an accurate and reliable age can be assigned to individual plants using the phytometric model detailed by Frenot et al. (1993). Plant size, growth rate, epiphyte load, nearest-neighbor characteristics, and spatial position (used as a surrogate, to encompass a range of abiotic conditions to which plants were exposed) were measured at three sites. Additionally, variation in some of these variables was quantified across three altitudinal transects. Relationships were examined using regression, trend surface and partial regression approaches. Growth rate was independent of plant size, differed between sites, and was related to abiotic as well as other biotic factors. As a result, the phytometric models age estimates may be biased by environmental variables. The results of the phytometric model, albeit in the absence of support for one assumption, estimated mean plant age at 30 yr, with some plants estimated as older than 80 yr. Using a simulation model, the accuracy of age estimates was shown to vary with temporal variation in plant growth rate and plant size. Nonetheless, even a conservative approach suggested these estimates to be accurate to within 2 to 15 yr. While further development of the phytometric model would improve its reliability, the model remains a valuable tool for estimating plant ages in an environment where many related techniques can not be applied.

Soil moisture's underestimated role in climate change impact modelling in low‐energy systems

Shifts in precipitation regimes are an inherent component of climate change, but in low-energy systems are often assumed to be less important than changes in temperature. Because soil moisture is the hydrological variable most proximally linked to plant performance during the growing season in arctic-alpine habitats, it may offer the most useful perspective on the influence of changes in precipitation on vegetation. Here we quantify the influence of soil moisture for multiple vegetation properties at fine spatial scales, to determine the potential importance of soil moisture under changing climatic conditions. A fine-scale data set, comprising vascular species cover and field-quantified ecologically relevant environmental parameters, was analysed to determine the influence of soil moisture relative to other key abiotic predictors. Soil moisture was strongly related to community composition, species richness and the occurrence patterns of individual species, having a similar or greater influence than soil temperature, pH and solar radiation. Soil moisture varied considerably over short distances, and this fine-scale heterogeneity may contribute to offsetting the ecological impacts of changes in precipitation for species not limited to extreme soil moisture conditions. In conclusion, soil moisture is a key driver of vegetation properties, both at the species and community level, even in this low-energy system. Soil moisture conditions represent an important mechanism through which changing climatic conditions impact vegetation, and advancing our predictive capability will therefore require a better understanding of how soil moisture mediates the effects of climate change on biota.

Ontogenetic shifts in plant interactions vary with environmental severity and affect population structure

Environmental conditions and plant size may both alter the outcome of inter-specific plant-plant interactions, with seedlings generally facilitated more strongly than larger individuals in stressful habitats. However, the combined impact of plant size and environmental severity on interactions is poorly understood. Here, we tested explicitly for the first time the hypothesis that ontogenetic shifts in interactions are delayed under increasingly severe conditions by examining the interaction between a grass, Agrostis magellanica, and a cushion plant, Azorella selago, along two severity gradients. The impact of A. selago on A. magellanica abundance, but not reproductive effort, was related to A. magellanica size, with a trend for delayed shifts towards more negative interactions under greater environmental severity. Intermediate-sized individuals were most strongly facilitated, leading to differences in the size-class distribution of A. magellanica on the soil and on A. selago. The A. magellanica size-class distribution was more strongly affected by A. selago than by environmental severity, demonstrating that the plant-plant interaction impacts A. magellanica population structure more strongly than habitat conditions. As ontogenetic shifts in plant-plant interactions cannot be assumed to be constant across severity gradients and may impact species population structure, studies examining the outcome of interactions need to consider the potential for size- or age-related variation in competition and facilitation.

Spatial variation in plant interactions across a severity gradient in the sub-Antarctic

The stress–gradient hypothesis predicts that the intensity of interspecific positive interactions increases along environmental severity (i.e. stress and disturbance) gradients faster than the intensity of negative interactions. This study is the first to test if the stress–gradient hypothesis is supported for a location in the climatically extreme and species-poor sub-Antarctic. To do so, we investigate the fine-scale spatial distribution of plant species across altitude- and aspect-related abiotic severity gradients on a scoria cone on Marion Island. A clear altitudinal severity gradient was observed across the scoria cone, with lower temperatures, stronger winds and greater soil movement at higher altitudes. The altitudinal severity gradient was matched by stronger interspecific spatial association between the four dominant species at higher altitudes and in areas of lower vegetation cover. This suggests that, relative to the intensity of competition, the intensity of facilitation is greater under more severe conditions, supporting the stress–gradient hypothesis at the community level (i.e. for multiple pairs of species) and corroborating its usefulness for predicting variation in plant interactions at high latitudes and altitudes. Furthermore, the directional intraspecific aggregation and interspecific association plant cover patterns found within the gradient suggest that protection from the prevailing wind and from burial by loose substrate are the dominant facilitative mechanisms. Thus, plants benefit from the presence of neighbours when they provide shelter and substrate stability, and the relative intensity of this positive interaction is greatest at higher altitudes, and varies between species pairs. This study, therefore, not only provides support for the stress–gradient hypothesis in the sub-Antarctic, but also demonstrates fine-scale directional spatial patterns between multiple species nested within the severity gradient.

Thermal biology, population fluctuations and implications of temperature extremes for the management of two globally significant insect pests

The link between environmental temperature, physiological processes and population fluctuations is a significant aspect of insect pest management. Here, we explore how thermal biology affects the population abundance of two globally significant pest fruit fly species, Ceratitis capitata (medfly) and C. rosa (Natal fruit fly), including irradiated individuals and those expressing a temperature sensitive lethal (tsl) mutation that are used in the sterile insect technique. Results show that upper and lower lethal temperatures are seldom encountered at the field sites, while critical minimum temperatures for activity and lower developmental thresholds are crossed more frequently. Estimates of abundance revealed that C. capitata are active year-round, but abundance declines markedly during winter. Temporal autocorrelation of average fortnightly trap captures and of development time, estimated from an integrated model to calculate available degree days, show similar seasonal lags suggesting that population increases in early spring occur after sufficient degree-days have accumulated. By contrast, population collapses coincide tightly with increasing frequency of low temperature events that fall below critical minimum temperatures for activity. Individuals of C. capitata expressing the tsl mutation show greater critical thermal maxima and greater longevity under field conditions than reference individuals. Taken together, this evidence suggests that low temperatures limit populations in the Western Cape, South Africa and likely do so elsewhere. Increasing temperature extremes and warming climates generally may extend the season over which these species are active, and could increase abundance. The sterile insect technique may prove profitable as climates change given that laboratory-reared tsl flies have an advantage under warmer conditions.

Incorporating dominant species as proxies for biotic interactions strengthens plant community models

Summary 1. Biotic interactions exert considerable influence on the distribution of individual species and should, thus, strongly impact communities. Implementing biotic interactions in spatial models of community assembly is therefore essential for accurately modelling assemblage properties. However, this remains a challenge due to the difficulty of detecting the role of species interactions and because accurate paired community and environment data sets are required to disentangle biotic influences from abiotic effects. 2. Here, we incorporate data from three dominant species into community-level models as a proxy for the frequency and intensity of their interactions with other species and predict emergent assemblage properties for the co-occurring subdominant species. By analysing plant community and fieldquantified environmental data from specially designed and spatially replicated monitoring grids, we provide a robust in vivo test of community models. 3. Considering this well-defined and easily quantified surrogate for biotic interactions consistently improved realism in all aspects of community models (community composition, species richness and functional structure), irrespective of modelling methodology. 4. Dominant species reduced community richness locally and favoured species with similar leaf dry matter content. This effect was most pronounced under conditions of high plant biomass and cover, where stronger competitive impacts are expected. Analysis of leaf dry matter content suggests that this effect may occur through efficient resource sequestration. 5. Synthesis. We demonstrate the strong role of dominant species in shaping multiple plant community attributes, and thus the need to explicitly include interspecific interactions to achieve robust predictions of assemblage properties. Incorporating information on biotic interactions strengthens our capacity not only to predict the richness and composition of communities, but also how their structure and function will be modified in the face of global change.

The meso-scale drivers of temperature extremes in high-latitude Fennoscandia

Extreme temperatures are key drivers controlling both biotic and abiotic processes, and may be strongly modified by topography and land cover. We modelled mean and extreme temperatures in northern Fennoscandia by combining digital elevation and land cover data with climate observations from northern Finland, Norway and Sweden. Multivariate partitioning technique was utilized to investigate the relative importance of environmental variables for the variation of the three temperature parameters: mean annual absolute minima and maxima, and mean annual temperature. Generalized additive modeling showed good performance, explaining 84–95 % of the temperature variation. The inclusion of remotely sensed variables improved significantly the modelling of thermal extremes in this system. The water cover variables and topography were the most important drivers of minimum temperatures, whereas elevation was the most important factor controlling maximum temperatures. The spatial variability of mean temperatures was clearly driven by geographical location and the effects of topography. Partitioning technique gave novel insights into temperature-environment relationship at the meso-scale and thus proved to be useful tool for the study of the extreme temperatures in the high-latitude setting.

Vegetation Mediates Soil Temperature and Moisture in Arctic-Alpine Environments

Abstract Soil temperature and moisture are key determinants of abiotic and biotic processes in arctic-alpine regions. They are important links to understanding complex ecosystem dynamics under changing climate. The aims of this study were to (1) quantify fine-scale soil temperature and soil moisture variation, and (2) assess the influence of vegetation on soil temperature and moisture patterns in a northern European arctic-alpine environment. Inclusion of vegetation variables significantly improved models of soil temperature and moisture, despite abiotic variables (local topography and soil properties) being the most influential predictors. Temperature varied by ≥5 °C and moisture by ≥50% (volumetric water content) over very short distances (≥ 1 m), reflecting the extreme spatial heterogeneity of thermal and hydrological conditions in these systems. These results thus highlight the biotic mediation of changes in abiotic conditions, showing how vegetation can strongly affect local habitat conditions at fine spatial scales in arctic-alpine environments.

Plant dispersal in the sub‐Antarctic inferred from anisotropic genetic structure

Climatic conditions and landscape features often strongly affect species’ local distribution patterns, dispersal, reproduction and survival and may therefore have considerable impacts on species’ fine‐scale spatial genetic structure (SGS). In this study, we demonstrate the efficacy of combining fine‐scale SGS analyses with isotropic and anisotropic spatial autocorrelation techniques to infer the impact of wind patterns on plant dispersal processes. We genotyped 1304 Azorella selago (Apiaceae) specimens, a wind‐pollinated and wind‐dispersed plant, from four populations distributed across sub‐Antarctic Marion Island. SGS was variable with Sp values ranging from 0.001 to 0.014, suggesting notable variability in dispersal distance and wind velocities between sites. Nonetheless, the data supported previous hypotheses of a strong NW–SE gradient in wind strength across the island. Anisotropic autocorrelation analyses further suggested that dispersal is strongly directional, but varying between sites depending on the local prevailing winds. Despite the high frequency of gale‐force winds on Marion Island, gene dispersal distance estimates (σ) were surprisingly low (<10 m), most probably because of a low pollen dispersal efficiency. An SGS approach in association with isotropic and anisotropic analyses provides a powerful means to assess the relative influence of abiotic factors on dispersal and allow inferences that would not be possible without this combined approach.