Peter C. O'Brien

A Multiple Testing Procedure for Clinical Trials

A multiple testing procedure is proposed for comparing two treatments when response to treatment is both dichotomous (i.e., success or failure) and immediate. The proposed test statistic for each test is the usual (Pearson) chi-square statistic based on all data collected to that point. The maximum number (N) of tests and the number (m1 + m2) of observations collected between successive tests is fixed in advance. The overall size of the procedure is shown to be controlled with virtually the same accuracy as the single sample chi-square test based on N(m1 + m2) observations. The power is also found to be virtually the same. However, by affording the opportunity to terminate early when one treatment performs markedly better than the other, the multiple testing procedure may eliminate the ethical dilemmas that often accompany clinical trials.

The clinical course of neuromyelitis optica (Devic’s syndrome)

Objectives: To evaluate the spectrum of neuromyelitis optica (NMO), including characteristics of the index events (optic neuritis [ON]) and myelitis), neuroimaging, CSF, and serologic studies, and to evaluate the long-term course. Methods: Review of 71 patients with NMO evaluated at the Mayo Clinic between 1950 and 1997. Results: NMO was either monophasic or relapsing. Patients with a monophasic course (n = 23) usually presented with rapidly sequential index events (median 5 days) with moderate recovery. Most with a relapsing course (n = 48) had an extended interval between index events (median 166 days) followed within 3 years by clusters of severe relapses isolated to the optic nerves and spinal cord. Most relapsing patients developed severe disability in a stepwise manner, and one-third died because of respiratory failure. Features of NMO distinct from “typical” MS included >50 cells/mm3 in CSF (often polymorphonuclear), normal initial brain MRI, and lesions extending over three or more vertebral segments on spinal cord MRI. Conclusions: Clinical, laboratory, and imaging features generally distinguish neuromyelitis optica from MS. Patients with relapsing optic neuritis and myelitis may have neuromyelitis optica rather than MS. Patients with a relapsing course of neuromyelitis optica have a poor prognosis and frequently develop respiratory failure during attacks of cervical myelitis.

Prediction of AD with MRI-based hippocampal volume in mild cognitive impairment

Objective: To test the hypothesis that MRI-based measurements of hippocampal volume are related to the risk of future conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in older patients with a mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Background: Patients who develop AD pass through a transitional state, which can be characterized as MCI. In some patients, however, MCI is a more benign condition, which may not progress to AD or may do so slowly.Patients:— Eighty consecutive patients who met criteria for the diagnosis of MCI were recruited from the Mayo Clinic Alzheimer’s Disease Center/Alzheimer’s Disease Patient Registry. Methods: At entry into the study, each patient received an MRI examination of the head, from which the volumes of both hippocampi were measured. Patients were followed longitudinally with approximately annual clinical/cognitive assessments. The primary endpoint was the crossover of individual MCI patients to the clinical diagnosis of AD during longitudinal clinical follow-up. Results: During the period of longitudinal observation, which averaged 32.6 months, 27 of the 80 MCI patients became demented. Hippocampal atrophy at baseline was associated with crossover from MCI to AD (relative risk [RR], 0.69, p = 0.015). When hippocampal volume was entered into bivariate models—using age, postmenopausal estrogen replacement, standard neuropsychological tests, apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype, history of ischemic heart disease, and hypertension—the RRs were not substantially different from that found univariately, and the associations between hippocampal volume and crossover remained significant. Conclusion: In older patients with MCI, hippocampal atrophy determined by premorbid MRI-based volume measurements is predictive of subsequent conversion to AD.

Procedures for Comparing Samples with Multiple Endpoints

Five procedures are considered for the comparison of two or more multivariate samples. These procedures include a newly proposed nonparametric rank-sum test and a generalized least squares test. Also considered are the following tests: ordinary least squares, Hotellings T2, and a Bonferroni per-experiment error-rate approach. Applications are envisaged in which each variable represents a qualitatively different measure of response to treatment. The null hypothesis of no treatment difference is tested with power directed towards alternatives in which at least one treatment is uniformly better than the others. In all simulations the nonparametric procedure provided relatively good power and accurate control over the size of the test, and is recommended for general use. Alternatively, the generalized least squares procedure may also be useful with normally distributed data in moderate or large samples. A convenient expression for this procedure is obtained and its asymptotic relative efficiency with respect to the ordinary least squares test is evaluated.

Diabetic neuropathies: Update on definitions, diagnostic criteria, estimation of severity, and treatments

Preceding the joint meeting of the 19th annual Diabetic Neuropathy Study Group of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (NEURODIAB) and the 8th International Symposium on Diabetic Neuropathy in Toronto, Canada, 13–18 October 2009, expert panels were convened to provide updates on classification, definitions, diagnostic criteria, and treatments of diabetic peripheral neuropathies (DPNs), autonomic neuropathy, painful DPNs, and structural alterations in DPNs.

Medial temporal atrophy on MRI in normal aging and very mild Alzheimer's disease.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based volumetric measurements of medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures can discriminate between normal elderly control subjects and patients with Alzheimers disease (AD) of moderate to advanced severity. In terms of clinical utility, however, a more important issue concerns the ability of the technique to differentiate between normal elderly control subjects and AD patients with the very mildest form of the disease. We performed MRI-based volumetric measurements of the hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus, and amygdala in 126 cognitively normal elderly control subjects and 94 patients with probable AD. The diagnosis of AD was made according to NINDS/ADRDA criteria, and disease severity was categorized by Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scores. Patients with CDR 0.5 were classified as very mild, CDR 1 as mild, and CDR 2 as moderate disease severity. Volumes of each structure declined with increasing age in control subjects and did so in parallel for men and women. The volume of each measured MTL structure also declined with age in patients with AD. The volume of each MTL structure was significantly smaller in AD patients than control subjects (p < 0.001). Of the several MTL measures, the total hippocampal volumetric measurements were best at discriminating control subjects from AD patients. The mean hippocampal volumes for AD patients relative to control subjects by severity of disease were as follows: very mild AD (CDR 0.5) -1.75 SD below the control mean, mild AD (CDR 1) -1.99 SD, and moderate AD (CDR 2) -2.22 SD. Age- and gender-adjusted, normalized MRI-based hippocampal volumetric measurements provide a sensitive marker of the MTL neuroanatomic degeneration in AD early in the disease process.

MR‐based hippocampal volumetry in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

We evaluated a new magnetic resonance (MR)-based technique for performing volumetric measurements of temporal lobe structures. The technique was designed to assist in making the clinical diagnosis of dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT). We chose specific anatomic regions of interest because of their known involvement in memory function and in the neuropathology of DAT and used a regression model to assess the effects of age on the volumes of the anterior temporal lobe (ATL) and the hippocampal formation (HF). These measurements were normalized by total intracranial volume (TIV). The volumetric measurements of both the normalized ATL and HF were significantly smaller (p < 0.001) in DAT patients (N = 20) than in controls (N = 22), but the HF volumes provided much better separation between the two groups. Eighty-five percent of the DAT patients fell below the range of the HF/TIV measurement for the control subjects. This separation held up over the entire age range studied. Normalized volumes of both the HF and ATL decreased with age significantly for both the DAT patients and the controls. These results support the contention that MR-based HF volumetric measurements are accurate in differentiating DAT patients from cognitively normal elderly individuals. This technique may be a useful adjunct in making the clinical diagnosis of DAT.

A randomized trial of plasma exchange in acute central nervous system inflammatory demyelinating disease.

There are no established treatments for patients with acute, severe neurological deficits caused by multiple sclerosis or other inflammatory demyelinating diseases of the central nervous system who fail to recover after treatment with high‐dose corticosteroids. We conducted a randomized, sham‐controlled, double‐masked study of plasma exchange without concomitant immunosuppressive treatment in patients with recently acquired, severe neurological deficits resulting from attacks of inflammatory demyelinating disease, who failed to recover after treatment with intravenous corticosteroids. Patients who did not achieve moderate or greater improvement after the first treatment phase crossed over to the opposite treatment. Moderate or greater improvement in neurological disability occurred during 8 of 19 (42.1%) courses of active treatment compared with 1 of 17 (5.9%) courses of sham treatment. The primary analysis was positive. Improvement occurred early in the course of treatment, and was sustained on follow‐up. However, 4 of the patients who responded to the active treatment experienced new attacks of demyelinating disease during 6 months of follow‐up. Moderate or greater improvement occurred during follow‐up in only 2 of 13 patients who failed to improve during the treatment phase. Plasma exchange leads to functionally important neurological recovery in an important proportion of severely disabled patients with acute attacks of idiopathic inflammatory demyelinating disease.

Functioning Insulinoma—Incidence, Recurrence, and Long-Term Survival of Patients: A 60-Year Study

For the 60-year period from 1927 through 1986, we assessed the incidence, recurrence, and long-term survival among all Mayo Clinic patients with histologically confirmed functioning insulinoma. With use of the complete medical record system at Mayo and the comprehensive epidemiologic data base of residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, we found 224 patients in whom an initial pancreatic exploration at Mayo had confirmed the presence of insulinoma. The median age (and range) of these patients at surgical diagnosis was 47 (8 to 82) years, and 59% were female patients. During the study period, eight cases of insulinoma occurred among residents of Olmsted County; their age and gender distributions were similar to those of the total cohort. The incidence of insulinoma among residents of Olmsted County increased during the study period to a stable level during the last 2 decades of 4 cases per 1 million person-years. For the total cohort, 7.6% had multiple endocrine neoplasia type I (MEN I), and 5.8% had malignant insulinoma. The risk of recurrence was greater among patients with MEN I (21% at 10 and 20 years) than in those without MEN I (5% at 10 years and 7% at 20 years). Although survival of the total cohort was not significantly impaired, it was significantly worse than expected for patients with malignant insulinoma (29% versus 88% expected at 10 years postoperatively). We conclude that insulinoma is less rare than previously suspected. After successful surgical removal, the long-term risk of recurrent insulinoma is relatively high in patients with MEN I; for patients with benign disease, the long-term survival is normal.

Rate of medial temporal lobe atrophy in typical aging and Alzheimer's disease

Objectives: To determine the annual rates of volumetric change of the hippocampus and temporal horn in cognitively normal elderly control subjects and individually matched patients with AD, and to test the hypothesis that these rates were different. Background: Cross-sectional studies consistently reveal cerebral atrophy in elderly nondemented subjects compared with healthy young adults, and greater atrophy in patients with AD relative to elderly control subjects. However, rates of atrophy are estimated most accurately by performing serial measurements in the same individuals. Methods: MRI-based volumetric measurements of the hippocampi and temporal horns were performed in 24 cognitively normal subjects aged 70 to 89 years who were individually matched with respect to gender and age with 24 patients with AD. Each subject underwent an MRI protocol twice, separated by 12 months or more. Results: The mean annual rate of hippocampal volume loss among control subjects was -1.55 ± 1.38% and the temporal horns increased in volume by 6.15 ± 7.69% per year. These rates were significantly greater among AD patients: hippocampus, -3.98 ± 1.92% per year, p < 0.001; temporal horn, 14.16 ± 8.47% per year, p = 0.002. Conclusion: A statistically significant yearly decline in hippocampal volume and an increase in temporal horn volume was identified in elderly control subjects who represent typical aging individuals. These rates were approximately 2.5 times greater in patients with AD than in individually age- and gender-matched control subjects.