Peter Grace

The Potential Impact of Agricultural Management and Climate Change on Soil Organic Carbon of the North Central Region of the United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem. We have linked net primary production algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on plant growth, to the Soil Organic Carbon Resources And Transformations in EcoSystems (SOCRATES) model to develop a SOC map for the North Central Region of the United States between the years 1850 and 2100 in response to agricultural activity and climate conditions generated by the CSIRO Mk2 Global Circulation Model (GCM) and based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a emission scenario. We estimate that the current day (1990) stocks of SOC in the top 10 cm of the North Central Region to be 4692 Mt, and 8090 Mt in the top 20 cm of soil. This is 19% lower than the pre-settlement steady state value predicted by the SOCRATES model. By the year 2100, with temperature and precipitation increasing across the North Central Region by an average of 3.9°C and 8.1 cm, respectively, SOCRATES predicts SOC stores of the North Central Region to decline by 11.5 and 2% (in relation to 1990 values) for conventional and conservation tillage scenarios, respectively.

Pyrolysing poultry litter reduces N2O and CO2 fluxes

Application of poultry litter (PL) to soil can lead to substantial nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions due to the co-application of labile carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Slow pyrolysis of PL to produce biochar may mitigate N2O emissions from this source, whilst still providing agronomic benefits. In a corn crop on ferrosol with similarly matched available N inputs of ca. 116 kg N/ha, PL-biochar plus urea emitted significantly less N2O (1.5 kg N2O-N/ha) compared to raw PL at 4.9 kg N2O-N/ha. Urea amendment without the PL-biochar emitted 1.2 kg N2O-N/ha, and the PL-biochar alone emitted only 0.35 kg N2O-N/ha. Both PL and PL-biochar resulted in similar corn yields and total N uptake which was significantly greater than for urea alone. Using stable isotope methodology, the majority (~80%) of N2O emissions were shown to be from non-urea sources. Amendment with raw PL significantly increased C mineralisation and the quantity of permanganate oxidisable organic C. The low molar H/C (0.49) and O/C (0.16) ratios of the PL-biochar suggest its higher stability in soil than raw PL. The PL-biochar also had higher P and K fertiliser value than raw PL. This study suggests that PL-biochar is a valuable soil amendment with the potential to significantly reduce emissions of soil greenhouse gases compared to the raw product. Contrary to other studies, PL-biochar incorporated to 100mm did not reduce N2O emissions from surface applied urea, which suggests that further field evaluation of biochar impacts, and methods of application of both biochar and fertiliser, are needed.

A study of environmental and management drivers of non-co2 greenhouse gas emissions in Australian agro-ecosystems

Abstract Australian climate, soils and agricultural management practices are significantly different from those of the northern hemisphere nations. Consequently, experimental data on greenhouse gas production from European and North American agricultural soils and its interpretation are unlikely to be directly applicable to Australian systems. A programme of studies of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture has been established that is designed to reduce uncertainty of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and provide outputs that will enable better on-farm management practices for reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, particularly nitrous oxide. The systems being examined and their locations are irrigated pasture (Kyabram Victoria), irrigated cotton (Narrabri, NSW), irrigated maize (Griffith, NSW), rain-fed wheat (Rutherglen, Victoria) and rain-fed wheat (Cunderdin, WA). The field studies include treatments with and without fertilizer addition, stubble burning versus stubble retention, conventional cultivation versus direct drilling and crop rotation to determine emission factors and treatment possibilities for best management options. The data to date suggest that nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizer, applied to irrigated dairy pastures and rain-fed winter wheat, appear much lower than the average of northern hemisphere grain and pasture studies. More variable emissions have been found in studies of irrigated cotton/vetch/wheat rotation and substantially higher emissions from irrigated maize.

Soil carbon sequestration rates and associated economic costs for farming systems of south-eastern Australia.

Soil organic carbon (C) sequestration rates based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to simulate the economic potential for C sequestration in response to conservation tillage in the six agro-ecological zones within the Southern Region of the Australian grains industry. The net C sequestration rate over 20 years for the Southern Region (which includes discounting for associated greenhouse gases) is estimated to be 3.6 or 6.3 Mg C/ha after converting to either minimum or no-tillage practices, respectively, with no-till practices estimated to return 75% more carbon on average than minimum tillage. The highest net gains in C per ha are realised when converting from conventional to no-tillage practices in the high-activity clay soils of the High Rainfall and Wimmera agro-ecological zones. On the basis of total area available for change, the Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the highest net returns, potentially sequestering an additional 7.1 Mt C under no-tillage scenario over 20 years. The economic analysis was summarised as C supply curves for each of the 6 zones expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 years for a price per t C sequestered ranging from zero to AU

Review and analysis of strengths and weaknesses of agro-ecosystem models for simulating C and N fluxes

200. For a price of

Modeling nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated agriculture: testing DayCent with high-frequency measurements

50/Mg C, a total of 427 000 Mg C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <5% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 9.1 Mt for the region. The Wimmera and Mid-North offer the largest gains in C under minimum tillage over 20 years of all zones for all C prices. For the no-tillage scenario, for a price of

The potential impact of climate change on Australia's soil organic carbon resources

50/Mg C, 1.74 Mt C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <10% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 18.6 Mt for the region over 20 years. The Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the best return in C over 20 years under no-tillage for all C prices. The Mallee offers the least return for both minimum and no-tillage scenarios. At a price of

Spatio-temporal variation in soil derived nitrous oxide emissions under sugarcane.

200/Mg C, the transition from conventional tillage to minimum or no-tillage practices will only realise 19% and 33%, respectively, of the total biogeochemical sequestration potential of crop and pasture systems of the Southern Region over a 20-year period.

Can impacts of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies be accurately quantified if crop models are annually re-initialized?

Biogeochemical simulation models are important tools for describing and quantifying the contribution of agricultural systems to C sequestration and GHG source/sink status. The abundance of simulation tools developed over recent decades, however, creates a difficulty because predictions from different models show large variability. Discrepancies between the conclusions of different modelling studies are often ascribed to differences in the physical and biogeochemical processes incorporated in equations of C and N cycles and their interactions. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modelling agricultural (crop and grassland) systems. In order to carry out this study, we selected the range of biogeochemical models used by the CN-MIP consortium of FACCE-JPI (http://www.faccejpi.com): APSIM, CERES-EGC, DayCent, DNDC, DSSAT, EPIC, PaSim, RothC and STICS. In our analysis, these models were assessed for the quality and comprehensiveness of underlying processes related to pedo-climatic conditions and management practices, but also with respect to time and space of application, and for their accuracy in multiple contexts. Overall, it emerged that there is a possible impact of ill-defined pedo-climatic conditions in the unsatisfactory performance of the models (46.2%), followed by limitations in the algorithms simulating the effects of management practices (33.1%). The multiplicity of scales in both time and space is a fundamental feature, which explains the remaining weaknesses (i.e. 20.7%). Innovative aspects have been identified for future development of C and N models. They include the explicit representation of soil microbial biomass to drive soil organic matter turnover, the effect of N shortage on SOM decomposition, the improvements related to the production and consumption of gases and an adequate simulations of gas transport in soil. On these bases, the assessment of trends and gaps in the modelling approaches currently employed to represent biogeochemical cycles in crop and grassland systems appears an essential step for future research.

Improving the statistical preparation for measuring soil N2O flux by closed chamber.

A unique high temporal frequency data set from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N20 emissions from subtropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N20 fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N20 fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N20 emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25-year scenario analysis indicated that N20 losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e., frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertilizer application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.