Peter J. Barry

Credit risk migration analysis of farm businesses

The migration approach to credit risk measurement is based on historic rates of movements of individual loans among the classes of a lender’s risk‐rating or credit‐scoring system. This article applies the migration concept to farm‐level data from Illinois to estimate migration rates for a farmer’s credit score and other performance measures under different time‐averaging approaches. Empirical results suggest greater stability in rating migrations for longer time‐averaging periods (although less stable than bond migrations), and for the credit score criterion versus ROE and repayment capacity.

Business growth strategies of Illinois grain farms

This study identifies key strategies employed by Illinois grain farms to prevent the erosion of their equity positions due to significant downturns in commodity prices during the implementation of the 1996 farm bill. The econometric results emphasize the collective importance of revenue enhancement, cost reduction, and capital management strategies. Nonfarm‐related strategies aimed at minimizing equity withdrawals through regulated family living expenditures, as well as supplementing low farm incomes with receipts from nonfarm employment and investments, significantly affect cost value equity growth rates. Moreover, significant financial and asset management strategies include those that minimize the costs of borrowing and maintain high asset productivity levels through elimination of excess farm capacity.

Choice among leasing contracts in farm real estate

The leasing market for Midwestern farmland is experiencing greater reliance on cash versus share leases and increased competition for leased acreage. This study identifies significant factors associated with the use of cash leases relative to share leases, and with the associated levels of cash rent. A greater likelihood of cash leases is significantly related to higher income variability, lower soil quality, smaller tracts of leased acreage, shorter relationships with landlords, and to farmers with larger net worths and higher debt‐to‐asset ratios. Levels of cash rent are associated primarily with differences in soil productivity, tract size, and net worth.

Effects of commercial bank structure and other characteristics on agricultural lending.

A case loan request methodology evaluated how changes in commercial banking structure are influencing credit availability and terms for selected farm business types. Tobit and OLS regressions were used to assess bank characteristic effects on loan amount and rate, and a paired comparisons approach evaluated credit term differences among borrower types. Loan amounts were not significantly influenced by bank characteristics, and loan rates were significantly affected by bank characteristics sporadically. Some differentiation in credit terms among the demographic groups occurred. These results showed no overwhelming evidence in favor of or against the trend toward commercial bank consolidation as it impacts agricultural lending.

Farmland lease decisions in a life‐cycle model

Optimization procedures are used to investigate economic motivations of farmland lease arrangements in an intertemporal setting and to explore linkages among lease contracts, risk, and time attitudes, and their impact on farm performance. The model solutions suggest farm businesses can be effectively analyzed in a life‐cycle model in which farmland tenure, production, financing, and investment decisions are jointly optimized. The operator’s degree of risk aversion and time attitudes are shown to affect farm business decisions and performance.