Peter J. Gregory

Climate change and food security

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.

Competition for land.

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate

While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.

Improving Water use Efficiency of Annual Crops in the Rainfed Farming Systems of West Asia and North Africa

Farming systems in west Asia and north Africa have evolved to cope with the problems of highly variable and, frequently, chronically deficient rainfall. Cereals (mainly wheat and barley) are the dominant arable crops with food legumes (chickpea, lentil and faba bean) occupying only 5 to 10% of the area planted to cereals. Livestock is closely integrated into the farming system and crop production practices often reflect the importance of animals as a major source of income, particularly on the smaller farms. Soils of the region are predominantly calcareous, frequently phosphate deficient, and their depth and texture are important in determining the maximum amount of water that can be stored which, in turn, may determine the effective length of the growing season. Rain falls mainly during the winter months so that crops must often rely on stored soil moisture when they are growing most rapidly. Analysis of equations relating crop growth and water use shows that there are three ways in which the ‘water use efficiency’ of dry matter production can be increased. First, the amount of dry matter produced per unit of water transpired might be increased; second, if the water supply is limited, the amount of water transpired might be increased relative to evaporation from the soil surface; and third, the total amount of water used might be increased to produce extra growth provided that this results in increased transpiration rather than simply increasing evaporation from the soil surface. These three possible routes to increased crop growth are reviewed in relation to possible improvements in water management and crop genotypes in the Mediterranean environment. Scope for improving transpiration efficiency is limited although genotypic differences exist and may be useful in the future. More immediately, changes in crop management, such as applications of fertilizer, improved tillage and better weed control, will all increase the amount of water transpired. Application of mulches will also reduce evaporation from the soil surface but crop residues are usually eaten by livestock and are, therefore, often unavailable. The barley/livestock farming system of west Asia is used as a case study to illustrate how the Fanning Systems Programme of ICARDA has developed on-farm research programmes of direct relevance to current farming systems. Research on experimental sites directed at improving water use efficiency has been developed into on-farm trials and into collaborative trials with the Syrian Soils Directorate.

Performance of the APSIM-wheat model in Western Australia

Abstract APSIM-wheat is a crop system simulation model, consisting of modules that incorporate aspects of soil water, nitrogen (N), residues, and crop development. The model was used to simulate above- and belowground growth, grain yield, water and N uptake, and soil water and soil N in wheat crops in Western Australia. Model outputs were compared with detailed field experiments from four rainfall zones, three soil types, and five wheat genotypes. The field experiments covered 10 seasons, with variations in sowing date, plant density, N fertiliser, deep ripping and irrigation. The overall APSIM model predictions of shoot growth, root depth, water and N uptake, soil water, soil N, drainage and nitrate leaching were found to be acceptable. Grain yields were well predicted with a coefficient of determination r2(1:1)=0.77, despite some underestimation during severe terminal droughts. Yields tended to be underestimated during terminal droughts due to insufficient pre-anthesis stored carbohydrates being remobilised to the grain. Simulation of grain protein, and depth to the perched water table showed limited accuracy when compared with field measurements. In particular, grain protein tended to be overpredicted at high protein levels and underpredicted at low levels. However, specific simulation studies to predict biomass, yield, drainage and nitrate leaching are now possible for wheat crops on the tested soil types and rainfall zones in Western Australia.

Non-invasive imaging of roots with high resolution X-ray micro-tomography

X-ray micro-tomography is a well-established technique for non-invasive imaging and evaluation of heterogeneous materials. An inexpensive X-ray micro-tomography system has been designed and built for the specific purposes of examining root growth and root/soil interactions. The system uses a silver target X-ray source with a focal spot diameter of 80 gm, an X-ray image intensifier with a sampling aperture of about 100 μm,and a sample with a diameter of 25 mm. Pre-germinated wheat and rape seeds were grown for up to 8–10 days in plastic containers in a sandy loam soil sieved to < 250 μm, and imaged with the X-ray system at regular intervals. The quality of 3 D image obtained was good allowing the development and growth of both root axes and some first-order laterals to be observed. The satisfactory discrimination between soil and roots enabled measurements of root diameter (wheat values were 0.48–1.22 mm) in individual tomographic slices and, by tracking from slice to slice, root lengths were also measured. The measurements obtained were generally within 10% of those obtained from destructive samples measured manually and with a flat-bed scanner. Further developments of the system will allow more detailed examination of the root:soil interface.

Effects of fertilizer, variety and location on barley production under rainfed conditions in Northern Syria 2. Soil water dynamics and crop water use

Abstract The effects of fertilizer and location on the water use of two contrasting varieties of barley were studied in Northern Syria using a neutron probe. The observed patterns of soil moisture dynamics and crop water use were typical of those previously observed in Mediterranean-type environments. Moisture supply, as reflected by rainfall, was the principal factor affecting total water use, but both the application of fertilizer (N and P) and varietal differences also resulted in increased water use, particularly at the wetter location. There were no differences in the water-use efficiency between the two varieties, but the application of fertilizer resulted in large increases of water-use efficiency at both locations. Separation of crop evapotranspiration into crop transpiration and soil evaporation indicated that increased water-use efficiency was partially due to increased transpiration efficiency but was largely due to a reduction in soil evaporative loss, through greater soil shading by the crop canopy, and increased crop transpiration. Examination of this dataset together with the patterns of root and shoot growth suggest that fertilizer and varietal effects on root growth are linked to patterns of water use, growth and yield formation in barley.

Root phenomics of crops: opportunities and challenges

Reliable techniques for screening large numbers of plants for root traits are still being developed, but include aeroponic, hydroponic and agar plate systems. Coupled with digital cameras and image analysis software, these systems permit the rapid measurement of root numbers, length and diameter in moderate (typically <1000) numbers of plants. Usually such systems are employed with relatively small seedlings, and information is recorded in 2D. Recent developments in X-ray microtomography have facilitated 3D non-invasive measurement of small root systems grown in solid media, allowing angular distributions to be obtained in addition to numbers and length. However, because of the time taken to scan samples, only a small number can be screened (typically <10 per day, not including analysis time of the large spatial datasets generated) and, depending on sample size, limited resolution may mean that fine roots remain unresolved. Although agar plates allow differences between lines and genotypes to be discerned in young seedlings, the rank order may not be the same when the same materials are grown in solid media. For example, root length of dwarfing wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) lines grown on agar plates was increased by ~40% relative to wild-type and semi-dwarfing lines, but in a sandy loam soil under well watered conditions it was decreased by 24-33%. Such differences in ranking suggest that significant soil environment-genotype interactions are occurring. Developments in instruments and software mean that a combination of high-throughput simple screens and more in-depth examination of root-soil interactions is becoming viable.

Chemically‐mediated host‐plant location and selection by root‐feeding insects

Abstract.  Recent studies have shown that root‐feeding insects can be of considerable importance in terms of agricultural damage, their indirect impacts on above‐ground herbivores and their efficacy as biocontrol agents of weeds. To date, isolated studies have made it difficult to identify the mechanisms by which soil‐dwelling insects locate and select host‐plant roots. This review synthesizes 78 studies describing root location and selection. Soil insect herbivores do not rely on encountering roots at random, but orientate towards them using semiochemicals that enable specialist insects to distinguish host‐plants from unsuitable plants. Secondary plant metabolites released into the rhizosphere (alcohols, esters and aldehydes representing 37% of reported examples) underpin host‐plant location and recognition, with 80% having ‘attractant’ properties. Insects feeding on a limited range of plants tend to exploit host‐specific secondary metabolites, whereas nonspecialist feeders appear to use more general semiochemicals. When insects reach the roots, contact chemosensory cues act as either ‘phagostimulants’ (48% of the compounds being sugars) or feeding ‘deterrents’ (notably phenolic compounds). Twenty studies conclude that CO2 is the major primary plant metabolite that allows insects to locate to roots. However, several features of CO2 emissions from roots mitigate against it as a precise location cue. In addition to its lack of specificity, gradients of root emitted CO2 do not persist for long periods and vertical gradients of CO2 in the soil tend to be stronger than horizontal gradients. A conceptual model is presented, emphasizing the importance of soil properties (e.g. porosity, moisture) on chemical diffusion and insect motility.

Environmental consequences of alternative practices for intensifying crop production

The increasing global demand for food will be met chiefly by increased intensification of production. For crops, this will be achieved largely by increased yields per area with a smaller contribution from an increased number of crops grown in a seasonal cycle. Production systems show a spectrum of intensification practices characterised by varying methods of site preparation and pest control, and inputs of germplasm, nutrients and water. This paper highlights three main types of intensification (based largely on the quantity and efficiency of use of external inputs) and examines both the on- and off-site environmental consequences of each for soils, water quantity and quality, and climate forcing and regional climate change. The use of low amounts of external inputs is generally regarded as being the most environmentally-benign although this advantage over systems with higher inputs may disappear if the consequences are expressed per unit of product rather than per unit area. The adverse effects of production systems with high external inputs, especially losses of nutrients from fertilisers and manures to water courses and contributions of gases to climate forcing, have been quantified. Future intensification, including the use of improved germplasm via genetic modification, will seek to increase the efficiency of use of added inputs while minimising adverse effects on the environment. However, reducing the loss of nutrients from fertilisers and manures, and increasing the efficiency of water utilisation in crop production, remain considerable challenges.