Peter Kellner

Can online polls produce accurate findings

Ever since YouGov was founded in the spring of 2000 as an online polling and e-consultation company, it has been the subject of comment, inquiry, fascination and criticism. This is not surprising for, compared with traditional survey companies, its methods are radically different, its costs are lower and its media profile, relative to its size, far higher. If it is able to produce reliable data, then it is plainly in a strong, competitive position. Equally, its rivals would be able to defeat its challenge were they to prove that its methods do not work.

Austerity and political choice in Britain

1. Setting the Scene for 2015 2. The Political Economy of Austerity 3. Policy Performance and Political Payoffs 4. The 2015 Campaign 5. Choosing to Vote and Choosing a Party 6. Explaining the Outcome 7. Discontent and Change in Multi-Party Britain

Polling Voting Intentions

Polling companies have tracked public opinion in every general election since 1945. This paper reviews their performance and discusses some of the issues facing polling organisations today. In particular it examines the recent performance of YouGov and other online polling companies, the challenge of achieving politically representative samples and the advantages and disadvantages of different research modes.

Public Opinion and the Depth of Labour's Crisis

Labours current problems are the culmination of long-term trends flowing from the rising cost of tax-funded services and welfare and voters’ mounting resistance to higher taxes to pay for them. As a result of this, there is now a big gulf between the attitudes of Labour party members, and in particular the supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour voters—and an even wider gulf with the extra voters Labour needs to win a future election. This gulf is also wide in relation to a range of other issues, including immigration, education and economic ideology. For Labour to return to government, it needs not just to narrow the gulf in policy, but to persuade voters of its ‘valence’ virtues of trust and competence—qualities in relation to which Labour currently lags the Conservatives by large margins.

The 2015 Campaign

This chapter describes the official election campaign from its kick off to polling day. The focus is on widely publicized campaign events such as the debate among the seven party leaders, the launch of party manifestos and on-going efforts by the parties to focus public attention on ‘their’ issues. Public relations gambits, such as Ed Miliband’s unveiling of a huge stone monolith — derisively dubbed the ‘Ed Stone’ — also are discussed. Polling evidence indicates public opinion was largely unaffected by the campaign, with parties’ vote shares remaining largely static from beginning to end. Equally noteworthy, the election result showed that the pollsters got it wrong, underestimating the Conservative vote and overestimating Labour’s.

The Politics of Discontent: Britain’s Emerging Multi-Party Politics

Chapter 7 discusses prospects for British party politics in light of the 2015 election result. A striking aspect of the outcome was the strong performance of various minor parties, coupled with the long-term decline in support for the two major parties. Public unhappiness with political parties is persistent and widespread. Perceived performance failures and feelings that parties represent socio-economic elites rather than ordinary people are important sources of this discontent — discontent expressed via the election of veteran left-wing activist Jeremy Corbyn as new Labour leader. The chapter concludes by discussing how Corbyn’s leadership and Prime Minister Cameron’s promised referendum on continuing EU membership may affect Labour, the Conservatives and the British party system more generally.

Explaining the Election Outcome

Chapter 6 analyses constituency-level competition among the parties across the country. Direct competition between Labour and the Conservatives was limited in 2015, making contests involving one of the two major parties and various minor parties very important. The SNP sweep in Scotland and the success of the Conservatives in capturing Liberal Democrat seats across southern England largely explain the election outcome, with the Lib-Dem collapse being crucial for the Conservative victory. Official election returns combined with census data and the results of Ashcroft polls’ indicate that leader images and economic evaluations had significant effects on constituency-level election outcomes.

Choosing to Vote and Choosing a Party

Chapter 5 uses data from the Essex CMS pre- and post-election surveys to investigate turnout and party choice in 2015. The turnout analyses study the effects of several predictor variables including political interest, political efficacy, sense of civic duty and social trust as well as differences in voting participation among major sociodemographic groups. Relationships between party choice and key ‘valence politics’ variables such as partisanship, party performance on important issues and party leader images are highlighted. Judgments about leader and party performance had powerful effects on party choice in 2015, with renewed economic optimism doing much to explain electoral support for Prime Minister Cameron and the Conservatives.

Policy Performance and Political Payoffs

Chapter 3 employs data from monthly Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys to examine voters’ reactions to major issues, such as the economy, immigration, health and EU membership. The chapter also examines assessments of party leaders and evaluations of party performance. Analyses indicate that Prime Minister Cameron and the Conservatives did well on the economy but judgments on the NHS and immigration were less favourable. There is also evidence of widespread dissatisfaction about economic inequality, social justice and corporate greed. Labour was unable to profit from voters’ discontents because its ‘brand’ was badly tarnished, and many people did not believe that the party or its leader, Ed Miliband, could deliver on key issues

The Political Economy of Austerity

Chapter 2 considers the records of the Coalition Government and the Labour opposition from 2010 to 2015. The chapter looks closely at the Coalition Agreement and the policy proposals which accompanied it, particularly with respect to the economy and the austerity strategy pursued by the Coalition Government. Comparisons are made of the evolving policy goals and forecasts made just after the 2010 election with the economic outcomes that actually occurred. Policy-making and performance outcomes regarding immigration, welfare and the NHS also are examined