Peter L. Francia

A Clash of Civilizations? The Influence of Religion on Public Opinion of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East

The authors argue in this study that religious beliefs play a significant role in predicting American public opinion on foreign policy issues in the Middle East. Their findings reveal that Evangelical Christians have remained strong supporters of a hawkish foreign policy toward the Middle East, even as overall public support for the Iraq War declines. They also find that Evangelicals are among the strongest supporters of Israel and hold more negative views of Islam than others. These results reinforce the growing importance of the “faith factor” in public opinion and American politics as a whole.

Early Appraisals of Electronic Voting

With the recent troubles in U.S. elections, there has been a nationwide push to update voting systems. States and localities are investing heavily in electronic voting systems, many of which use a touch screen. These systems offer the promise of faster and more accurate voting; however, the current reality is that they have some shortcomings in terms of voter usability. This study examines issues related to the usability of electronic voting systems and reports on a series of usability studies that involved expert review, close observation, a field test, and an exit poll to learn voters’responses to a new voting system. Our analysis shows these systems work well; however, they have some shortcomings including some that have raised concerns among a minority of voters.

Cable News, Public Opinion, and the 2004 Party Conventions

In this study, the authors test for the presence of bias during Fox News and CNN’s coverage of the 2004 national party conventions. The content analysis demonstrates that Fox News’s coverage was more favorable to the Republican Party than it was to the Democratic Party, while CNN’s coverage was more impartial. The authors also use panel data from the National Annenberg Election Survey to show how opinion change toward the 2004 presidential candidates was associated with exposure to cable television coverage of the national party conventions. These findings highlight the evolving role of the cable news media in presidential campaigns and elections.

The Impact of Public Finance Laws on Fundraising in State Legislative Elections

Campaign finance reform has become a hotly debated issue at both the federal and state levels. Maine and Arizona became the first states to implement a fully subsidized public finance system for legislative candidates during the 2000 election. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Hawaii have provided partial public funding to legislative candidates for several elections. The experiences of these states provide an opportunity to evaluate public funding programs. This study addresses the question: Does public funding reduce the time that candidates devote to fundraising? Using data comprising a representative nationwide sample, we demonstrate that candidates who accepted full public funding spent less time raising money than other candidates, including those who accepted partial public funding. We conclude that full public funding has the potential to redirect modern campaign efforts away from the “money chase,” freeing time for other campaign activities.

The Effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Corporate and Labor Pac Contributions

This study investigates the impact congressional roll call votes on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had on corporate and labor political action committee (PAC) contributions during the 1994 House elections. The results show that corporate PACs gave more money to incumbents who voted in favor of NAFTA and that labor PACs contributed less money to pro-NAFTA incumbents, including Democrats in competitive races. The findings mark a departure from the existing literature, which indicates that corporations and unions rarely place an emphasis on particular roll call votes when providing their campaign money to candidates.

Assessing the Labor-Democratic Party Alliance: A One-Sided Relationship?

Forty years ago in Labor in American Politics, J. David Greenstone examined the political activities of organized labor and assessed their impact on the American party system. One of Greenstone’s central arguments was that, following the New Deal period, organized labor developed close organizational ties with the Democratic Party, similar to the alliances between trade unions and the social democratic parties of Western Europe. He likened organized labor to a ‘‘party within a party’’ and suggested that the interrelated goals it shared with the Democratic Party made it inevitable that the two would work together closely. By the 1960s, Greenstone concluded, organized labor had become the Democratic Party’s most important political supporter in national elections and that for ‘‘practical purposes, labor and the party operated within a political coalition as partners.’’ In the years since the publication of the book, numerous scholars have built upon Greenstone’s research about the labor -Democratic Party alliance, although often reaching different conclusions. Following the spirit of the debate that Greenstone’s work helped inspire, this article’s purpose is to examine the current

Free Media and Twitter in the 2016 Presidential Election: The Unconventional Campaign of Donald Trump

This article examines the surprising outcome of the 2016 presidential election, which saw Donald Trump defy nearly all of the conventional wisdom to become the 45th president of the United States. Political commentators and experts offered several immediate postelection explanations for Trump’s victory, one of which focused on how Trump was able to generate considerable unpaid or free media for himself, often directly through Twitter. This article explains the theory and rationale underlying the free media thesis (FMT) and then examines whether there is any preliminary empirical support for it. Using media tracking data and public opinion surveys, the results reveal that Trump indeed dominated the unpaid media market. Although the findings in this article cannot make causal claims about whether Trump’s advantages in free media are the primary reason for his upset victory, the results, nonetheless, suggest that some of the basic conditions necessary for the FMT were present in the 2016 election and that the FMT offers a plausible avenue for further analysis and future research.

Do Unions Still Matter in U.S. Elections? Assessing Labor's Political Power and Significance

Popular accounts of the labor movement often suggest that unions are in decline. While there have been sharp declines in union membership as a percentage of the workforce, this study presents evidence that organized labor’s influence in the U.S. elections remains significant. Using data from the American National Election Study and the National Election Pool, the results in this study demonstrate: (1) union households, despite drops in union membership as a percentage of the workforce, have remained a sizeable percentage of the U.S electorate, especially in regions outside of the South; (2) unions boost voter turnout, including among those from traditionally underrepresented demographics; and (3) unions continue to produce a strong Democratic vote in presidential and congressional elections, and boost the Democratic vote among middle-income whites – a critical “swing” constituency. In total, these results suggest that the future strength or weakness of the labor movement is likely to have significant implications for upcoming election outcomes, the party coalitions that ultimately form for future Democratic and Republican candidates, and how representative the electorate will be relative to the population in years to come.

Early Fundraising by Nonincumbent Female Congressional Candidates

Abstract This study investigates the effects of early contributions by womens PACs to female nonincumbent U.S. House candidates. The results show that womens PACs give early money disproportionately to female Democrats. This advantage provides female Democrats with greater success in raising later funds and in gaining electoral support than nonincumbent female Republicans.

Labor Unions and the Mobilization of Latino Voters Can the Dinosaur Awaken the Sleeping Giant

Despite large population gains, political observers commonly refer to Latinos as a “sleeping giant” because of low voter turnout. Conversely, steady declines in union membership have led some to label organized labor a “dinosaur.” Several unions have made special outreach efforts to Latinos to rebuild their ranks and improve Latino political participation. Incorporating insights from the Civic Voluntarism Model, we find union affiliation increases Latino voter registration and turnout, and disproportionately so in comparison with non-Latinos and in recent elections. We conclude that continued declines in union membership have significant implications for Latino political power and inequalities in political voice.