Peter T. LaPuma

Using monte carlo simulation in life cycle assessment for electric and internal combustion vehicles

Abstract1 BackgroundThe U.S. Government has encouraged shifting from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to alternatively fueled vehicles such as electric vehicles (EVs) for three primary reasons: reducing oil dependence, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing Clean Air Act criteria pollutant emissions. In comparing these vehicles, there is uncertainty and variability in emission factors and performance variables, which cause wide variation in reported outputs.2 ObjectivesA model was developed to demonstrate the use of Monte Carlo simulation to predict life cycle emissions and energy consumption differences between the ICEV versus the EV on a per kilometer (km) traveled basis. Three EV technologies are considered: lead-acid, nickel-cadmium, and nickel metal hydride batteries.3 MethodsVariables were identified to build life cycle inventories between the EVs and ICEV. Distributions were selected for each of the variables and input to Monte Carlo Simulation soft-ware called Crystal Ball 2000®.4 Results and DiscussionAll three EV options reduce U.S. oil dependence by shifting to domestic coal. The life cycle energy consumption per kilometer (km) driven for the EVs is comparable to the ICEV; however, there is wide variation in predicted energy values. The model predicts that all three EV technologies will likely increase oxides of sulfur and nitrogen as well as particulate matter emissions on a per km driven basis. The model shows a high probability that volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide emissions are reduced with the use of EVs. Lead emissions are also predicted to increase for lead-acid battery EVs. The EV will not reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially and may even increase them based on the current U.S. reliance on coal for electricity generation. The EV may benefit public health by relocating air pollutants from urban centers, where traffic is concentrated, to rural areas where electricity generation and mining generally occur. The use of Monte Carlo simulation in life cycle analysis is demonstrated to be an effective tool to provide further insight on the likelihood of emission outputs and energy consumption.

Using Gas Chromatography with Ion Mobility Spectrometry to Resolve Explosive Compounds in the Presence of Interferents

Abstract:  Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is a valued field detection technology because of its speed and high sensitivity, but IMS cannot easily resolve analytes of interest within mixtures. Coupling gas chromatography (GC) to IMS adds a separation capability to resolve complex matrices. A GC‐IONSCAN® operated in IMS and GC/IMS modes was evaluated with combinations of five explosives and four interferents. In 100 explosive/interferent combinations, IMS yielded 21 false positives while GC/IMS substantially reduced the occurrence of false positives to one. In addition, the results indicate that through redesign or modification of the preconcentrator there would be significant advantages to using GC/IMS, such as enhancement of the linear dynamic range (LDR) in some situations. By balancing sensitivity with LDR, GC/IMS could prove to be a very advantageous tool when addressing real world complex mixture situations.

An Approach to Integrating Occupational Safety and Health into Life Cycle Assessment: Development and Application of Work Environment Characterization Factors

Integrating occupational safety and health (OSH) into life cycle assessment (LCA) may provide decision makers with insights and opportunities to prevent burden shifting of human health impacts between the nonwork environment and the work environment. We propose an integration approach that uses industry‐level work environment characterization factors (WE‐CFs) to convert industry activity into damage to human health attributable to the work environment, assessed as disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs). WE‐CFs are ratios of work‐related fatal and nonfatal injuries and illnesses occurring in the U.S. worker population to the amount of physical output from U.S. industries; they represent workplace hazards and exposures and are compatible with the life cycle inventory (LCI) structure common to process‐based LCA. A proof of concept demonstrates application of the WE‐CFs in an LCA of municipal solid waste landfill and incineration systems. Results from the proof of concept indicate that estimates of DALYs attributable to the work environment are comparable in magnitude to DALYs attributable to environmental emissions. Construction and infrastructure‐related work processes contributed the most to the work environment DALYs. A sensitivity analysis revealed that uncertainty in the physical output from industries had the most effect on the WE‐CFs. The results encourage implementation of WE‐CFs in future LCA studies, additional refinement of LCI processes to accurately capture industry outputs, and inclusion of infrastructure‐related processes in LCAs that evaluate OSH impacts.

The work environment disability-adjusted life year for use with life cycle assessment: a methodological approach.

BackgroundLife cycle assessment (LCA) is a systems-based method used to determine potential impacts to the environment associated with a product throughout its life cycle. Conclusions from LCA studies can be applied to support decisions regarding product design or public policy, therefore, all relevant inputs (e.g., raw materials, energy) and outputs (e.g., emissions, waste) to the product system should be evaluated to estimate impacts. Currently, work-related impacts are not routinely considered in LCA. The objectives of this paper are: 1) introduce the work environment disability-adjusted life year (WE-DALY), one portion of a characterization factor used to express the magnitude of impacts to human health attributable to work-related exposures to workplace hazards; 2) outline the methods for calculating the WE-DALY; 3) demonstrate the calculation; and 4) highlight strengths and weaknesses of the methodological approach.MethodsThe concept of the WE-DALY and the methodological approach to its calculation is grounded in the World Health Organization’s disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Like the DALY, the WE-DALY equation considers the years of life lost due to premature mortality and the years of life lived with disability outcomes to estimate the total number of years of healthy life lost in a population. The equation requires input in the form of the number of fatal and nonfatal injuries and illnesses that occur in the industries relevant to the product system evaluated in the LCA study, the age of the worker at the time of the fatal or nonfatal injury or illness, the severity of the injury or illness, and the duration of time lived with the outcomes of the injury or illness.ResultsThe methodological approach for the WE-DALY requires data from various sources, multi-step instructions to determine each variable used in the WE-DALY equation, and assumptions based on professional opinion.ConclusionsResults support the use of the WE-DALY in a characterization factor in LCA. Integrating occupational health into LCA studies will provide opportunities to prevent shifting of impacts between the work environment and the environment external to the workplace and co-optimize human health, to include worker health, and environmental health.

Identification of Compounds Formed During Low Temperature Thermal Dispersion of Encapsulated o-Chlorobenzylidene Malononitrile (CS Riot Control Agent)

U.S. Army chemical mask confidence training is conducted in an enclosed chamber where airborne o-chlorobenzylidene malononitrile (also known as CS or “tear gas”) is generated using a low temperature (150–300°C) dispersal method. CS capsules are placed onto a flame-heated aerosol generator that melts the capsules and disperses CS into the chamber. To instill confidence in chemical protective equipment, trainees are required to break the seal of their chemical protective mask, resulting in the immediate irritation of their eyes, nose, throat, and lungs. Solid phase micro extraction (SPME) sample collection techniques were used inside the chamber, followed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC/MS) to identify unintended thermal degradation products created during the CS dispersal process. The temperature of the aerosol generator averaged 257°C, and 17 thermal degradation products were identified. To characterize the relationship between temperature and the types of CS thermal degradation products formed, CS was dispersed in a tube furnace at controlled temperatures from 150–300°C and analyzed using the same method. There was a graded response between temperature and the number of thermal degradation products formed, with one product formed at 150°C and 15 products formed at 300°C. Two additional products were identified in the chamber experiment when compared with the tube furnace experiment. These products are likely the result of molten CS dripping directly into the aerosol generators flame, which averaged 652°C. To prevent undesirable degradation products during thermal dispersion of CS, a delivery system designed to contain the molten CS and maintain a consistent temperature near 150°C is recommended.

An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change

Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.

The impact of recirculating industrial air on aircraft painting operations.

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments resulted in new environmental regulations for hazardous air pollutants. Industries such as painting facilities may have to treat large volumes of air, which increases the cost of an air control system. Recirculating a portion of the air back into the facility is an option to reduce the amount of air to be treated. The authors of this study developed a computer model written in Microsoft Excel 97 to analyze the impact of recirculation on worker safety and compliance costs. The model has a chemical database with over 1300 chemicals. The model will predict indoor air concentrations using mass balance calculations and results are compared to occupational exposure limits. A case study is performed on a C-130 aircraft painting facility at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The model predicts strontium chromate concentrations found in primer paints will reach 1000 times the exposure limit. Strontium chromate and other solid particulates are nearly unaffected by recirculation because the air is filtered during recirculation. The next highest chemical, hexamethylene diisocyanate, increases from 2.6 to 10.5 times the exposure limit at 0 percent and 75 percent recirculation, respectively. Due to the level of respiratory protection required for the strontium chromate, workers are well protected from the modest increases in concentrations caused by recirculating 75 percent of the air. The initial cost of an air control system is

Validation for a Recirculation Model

4.5 million with no recirculation and

Capture efficiency of portable high efficiency air filtration devices used during building construction activities

1.8 million at 75 percent recirculation. The model is an excellent tool to evaluate air control options with a focus on worker safety. In the case study, the model highlights strontium chromate primers as good candidates for substitution. The model shows that recirculating 75 percent of the air at the Hill painting facility has a negligible impact on safety and could save

Chemical agent identification by field-based attenuated total reflectance infrared detection and solid-phase microextraction.

2.7 million on the initial expenses of a thermal treatment system.