Peter Zeil

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Earth observation (EO)-based ex post assessment of internally displaced person (IDP) camp evolution and population dynamics in Zam Zam, Darfur

During humanitarian crises, when population figures are often urgently required but very difficult to obtain, remote sensing is able to provide evidence of both present and past population numbers. This research, conducted on QuickBird time-series imagery of the Zam Zam internally displaced person (IDP) camp in Northern Darfur, investigates automated analysis of the camps evolution between 2002 and 2008, including delineation of the camps outlines and inner structure, employment of rule-based extraction for two categories of dwelling units and derivation of population estimates for the time of image capture. Reference figures for dwelling occupancy were obtained from estimates made by aid agencies. Although validation of such ‘on-demand’ census techniques is still continuing, the benefits of a fast, efficient and objective information source are obvious. Spatial, as well thematic, accuracy was, in this instance, assessed against visual interpretation of eight 200 m × 200 m grid cells and accuracy statistics calculated. Total users and producers accuracy rates ranged from 71.6% up to 94.9%. While achieving promising results with respect to accuracy, transferability and usability, the remaining limitations of automated population estimation in dynamic crisis situations will provide a stimulus for future research.

Damage assessment in townships using VHSR data; The effect of Operation Murambatsvina / Restore Order in Harare, Zimbabwe

Operation Murambatsvina, also known as Operation Restore Order, has been a country wide operation carried out by the Zimbabwean Government of forced mass evictions, the demolition of homes and informal businesses. This paper presents first steps towards a transferable and robust change analysis approach for detecting and quantifying damages. The method used for damage detection combines object-based image analysis and GIS analysis. We use a workflow for information delivery, which is built upon (1) a transferable urban feature extraction scheme using very high spatial resolution (VHSR) before and after images, and (2) spatial aggregation of the results for comparative change detection and analysis. The aggregated change of urban area between 2004 and 2005 was calculated for 90 raster cells (500 * 500 m). Six cells could be identified with a standard deviation > 3 as areas with significant change. Visual inspection revealed four cells indicating destruction sites, two cells referring to an industrial area with high variation in industrial activity. This approach is expected to significantly improve rapid mapping and the detection of affected areas that require further interpretation and critical review.

Application of satellite derived information for disaster risk reduction: vulnerability assessment for southwest coast of Pakistan

The SW-coast of Pakistan is vulnerable to natural disasters, such as cyclones and tsunamis. Lack of spatially referenced information is a major hinder for proper disaster risk management programs in Pakistan, but satellite remote sensing being reliable, fast and spatially referenced information can be used as an important component in various natural disaster risk reduction activities. This study aimed to investigate vulnerability of coastal communities to cyclone and tsunamis based on satellite derived information. It is observed that SPOT-5 is relevant source on threatened features with respect to certain vulnerabilities like road, settlements, infrastructure and used in preparation of hazard zonation and vulnerability maps. Landsat ETM found very useful in demarcation of flood inundated areas. The GIS integrated evaluation of LANDSAT and ASTER GDEM helps identify low lying areas most susceptible to flooding and inundation by cyclone surges and tsunamis. The GIS integrated evaluation of SPOT, LANDSAT and ASTER GDEM data helps identify areas and infrastructure most vulnerable to cyclone surges and tsunami. Additionally, analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures (schools, hospitals) within hazard zones provides indicators for the degree of spatial exposure to disaster. Satellite derived information in conjunction with detailed surveys of hazard prone areas can provide comprehensive vulnerability and risk analysis.

Spatial and Holistic Assessment of Social, Economic, and Environmental Vulnerability to Floods—Lessons from the Salzach River Basin, Austria

The Salzach case study in Austria applied the MOVE risk and vulnerability framework in the context of flood hazards at the catchment scale level for the social, economic and environmental dimensions. The Salzach catchment is very heterogeneous and characterized through its alpine upstream area and highly dynamic river valleys with the city of Salzburg in the downstream area. Recent severe floods have occurred in 2002, 2005 and 2013 affecting large parts of the river catchment. The methodology applied aims to identify spatial-explicit homogenous regions of vulnerability for the different target dimensions. This builds on approaches such as multi-criteria assessment and the identification of expert weights for the various indicators and goes one step further by including novel methods of regionalization linked to the concept of ‘integrated geons’. The results allow the identification of spatially-explicit regions with different levels of vulnerability (‘hot spots’) independent from administrative boundaries. Furthermore, the results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting disaster risk reduction interventions that aim to reduce vulnerability and ultimately the risk of impacts from floods.

A Novel Approach to Capacity Building for Security Applications

In the context of the European Commissions Network of Excellence GMOSS (Global Monitoring for Security and Stability) a training approach has been developed and tested with the aim to integrate technology, natural sciences and social sciences in order to enhance the monitoring capability in the cross-cutting emerging field of security research. The training measure contributes to the establishment of a platform for experienced researchers who will make their impact felt by feeding research results into the security community and are themselves prepared to act on an implementation level. The alumni are social and political scientists with a sound understanding of monitoring capabilities as well as natural scientists and remote sensing experts with a sensitivity to political concepts, structures and processes in different security relevant fields. These objectives are accomplished by the following results: (a) A research agenda is developed which encompasses studies on social and political science research, facilitates the exchange of information between stakeholders, and activates existing organizational structures or stimulates the establishment of new ones. (b) Presentations and practical sessions are organized to inform on the state-of-the-art techniques in: Effective monitoring of international treaties for environmental protection and the development of tools for early warning Better estimates of populations on a global scale and the rapid remote damage assessment Generic methods, algorithms and software needed for the automated interpretation and visualisation of imagery, including feature recognition and change detection (c) The specific training measures stimulate the integration of research, incorporate the know-how of external experts and provide required soft-skills for future career options in science, technology and policy implementation for security.

Land Use/Land Cover Classification of the Natural Environment

Land use/land cover (LULC) information is one of the most important spatial input for environmental modelling and a crucial indicator to identify and quantify natural and socioeconomic impacts triggered by LULC changes. Such impacts are related to glacier, snow cover, and permafrost melting, the forming of GLOFs, erosion by land sides, discharge and sediment transport dynamics of alpine rivers, and the socioeconomic regional urban and rural development to name some of them.

Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards covers the vulnerability of human and environmental systems to climate change and eight natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, drought, coastal erosion, and heat waves

Theoretical and conceptual framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change in Europe: the MOVE framework

Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards covers the vulnerability of human and environmental systems to climate change and eight natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, drought, coastal erosion, and heat waves

Games and Scenarios in the Context of GMOSS

In this paper gaming and scenario analysis in the context of the GMOSS network are introduced both as an analytical tool and as a means of promoting training. Such analysis can create a common frame for addressing a monitoring problem from different perspectives whereby answering “What if” questions is its most essential feature. This kind of approach is expected to bring together the community working in scientific research, technological developments, and engineering on one side, and analysts, decision and policy makers on the other, which is specifically true for the GMOSS community.