Petr Otahal

Latitude is significantly associated with the prevalence of multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis

Background There is a striking latitudinal gradient in multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence, but exceptions in Mediterranean Europe and northern Scandinavia, and some systematic reviews, have suggested that the gradient may be an artefact. The authors sought to evaluate the association between MS prevalence and latitude by meta-regression. Methods and findings Studies were sourced from online databases, reference mining and author referral. Prevalence estimates were age-standardised to the 2009 European population. Analyses were carried out by means of random-effects meta-regression, weighted with the inverse of within-study variance. The authors included 650 prevalence estimates from 321 peer-reviewed studies; 239 were age-standardised, and 159 provided sex-specific data. The authors found a significant positive association (change in prevalence per degree-latitude) between age-standardised prevalence (1.04, p<0.001) and latitude that diminished at high latitudes. Adjustment for prevalence year strengthened the association with latitude (2.60, p<0.001). An inverse gradient in the Italian region reversed on adjustment for MS-associated HLA-DRB1 allele distributions. Adjustment for HLA-DRB1 allele frequencies did not appreciably alter the gradient in Europe. Adjustment for some potential sources of bias did not affect the observed associations. Conclusion This, the most comprehensive review of MS prevalence to date, has confirmed a statistically significant positive association between MS prevalence and latitude globally. Exceptions to the gradient in the Italian region and northern Scandinavia are likely a result of genetic and behavioural–cultural variations. The persistence of a positive gradient in Europe after adjustment for HLA-DRB1 allele frequencies strongly supports a role for environmental factors which vary with latitude, the most prominent candidates being ultraviolet radiation (UVR)/vitamin D.

Prognostic implications of global LV dysfunction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of global longitudinal strain and ejection fraction

Background Global longitudinal strain (GLS) is a robust, well validated and reproducible technique for the measurement of LV longitudinal deformation. We sought to assemble evidence that GLS is an accurate marker in predicting cardiovascular outcomes, compared to LVEF. Methods We undertook a systematic review of the evidence from observational studies which compared GLS against LVEF in predicting major adverse cardiac events. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was a composite of cardiac death, malignant arrhythmia, hospitalisation due to heart failure, urgent valve surgery or heart transplantation, and acute coronary ischaemic event. A random effects model was used to combine HR and 95% CIs. A meta-regression was undertaken to assess the impact of potential covariates. Results Data were collated from 16 published articles (n=5721 adults) comprising 15 prospective and 1 retrospective observational studies. The underlying cardiac conditions were heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, valvular heart disease, and miscellaneous cardiac diseases. Mortality was independently associated with each SD change in the absolute value of baseline GLS (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.69; p<0.002) and less strongly with LVEF (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.92; p=0.572). The HR per SD change in GLS was associated with a reduction in mortality 1.62 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.33; p=0.009) times greater than the HR per SD change in LVEF. Conclusions There is strong evidence of the prognostic value of GLS, which appears to have superior prognostic value to EF for predicting major adverse cardiac events.

Exercise-Induced Hypertension, Cardiovascular Events, and Mortality in Patients Undergoing Exercise Stress Testing: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND The prognostic relevance of a hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is ill-defined in individuals undergoing exercise stress testing. The study described here was intended to provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature to determine the value of exercise-related blood pressure (BP) (independent of office BP) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality. METHODS Online databases were searched for published longitudinal studies reporting exercise-related BP and CV events and mortality rates. RESULTS We identified for review 12 longitudinal studies with a total of 46,314 individuals without significant coronary artery disease, with total CV event and mortality rates recorded over a mean follow-up of 15.2±4.0 years. After adjustment for age, office BP, and CV risk factors, an HRE at moderate exercise intensity carried a 36% greater rate of CV events and mortality (95% CI, 1.02-1.83, P = 0.039) than that of subjects without an HRE. Additionally, each 10mm Hg increase in systolic BP during exercise at moderate intensity was accompanied by a 4% increase in CV events and mortality, independent of office BP, age, or CV risk factors (95% CI, 1.01-1.07, P = 0.02). Systolic BP at maximal workload was not significantly associated with the outcome of an increased rate of CV, whether analyzed as a categorical (HR=1.49, 95% CI, 0.90-2.46, P = 0.12) or a continuous (HR=1.01, 95% CI, 0.98-1.04, P = 0.53) variable. CONCLUSIONS An HRE at moderate exercise intensity during exercise stress testing is an independent risk factor for CV events and mortality. This highlights the need to determine underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of exercise-induced hypertension.

Circulating C reactive protein in osteoarthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background There is emerging evidence that the development and progression of osteoarthritis (OA) is associated with inflammation. C reactive protein (CRP), a systemic marker for inflammation, may be elevated in OA patients but the evidence is conflicting. Objective To systematically review the literature for the relationship between serum CRP levels measured by a high sensitivity method (high sensitive CRP (hs-CRP)) and OA, as well as the correlation between circulating CRP levels and OA phenotypes. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were systematically searched from January 1992 to December 2012. Studies were included when they met the inclusion criteria and data from studies were extracted. Two independent reviewers assessed study quality using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Meta-analyses were performed to pool available data from included studies. Results 32 studies met the inclusion criteria. Serum hs-CRP levels in OA were modestly but statistically significantly higher than controls (mean difference=1.19 mg/L, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.73, p<0.001) with significant heterogeneity between studies. Levels were significantly associated with pain (r=0.14, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.20, p<0.001) and decreased physical function (r=0.25, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.39, p<0.001). No significant associations were found between hs-CRP levels and radiographic OA. Conclusions Low-grade systemic inflammation may play a greater role in symptoms rather than radiographic changes in OA.

Randomized Trial of Guiding Hypertension Management Using Central Aortic Blood Pressure Compared With Best-Practice Care Principal Findings of the BP GUIDE Study

Arm cuff blood pressure (BP) may overestimate cardiovascular risk. Central aortic BP predicts mortality and could be a better method for patient management. We sought to determine the usefulness of central BP to guide hypertension management. This was a prospective, open-label, blinded–end point study in 286 patients with hypertension randomized to treatment decisions guided by best-practice usual care (n=142; using office, home, and 24-hour ambulatory BP) or, in addition, by central BP intervention (n=144; using SphygmoCor). Therapy was reviewed every 3 months for 12 months, and recommendations were provided to each patient and his/her doctor on antihypertensive medication titration. Outcome measures were as follows: medication quantity (daily defined dose), quality of life, and left ventricular mass (3-dimensional echocardiography). There was 92% compliance with recommendations on medication titration, and quality of life improved in both groups (post hoc P<0.05). For usual care, there was no change in daily defined dose (all P>0.10), but with intervention there was a significant stepwise decrease in daily defined dose from baseline to 3 months (P=0.008) and each subsequent visit (all P<0.001). Intervention was associated with cessation of medication in 23 (16%) patients versus 3 (2%) in usual care (P<0.001). Despite this, there were no differences between groups in left ventricular mass index, 24-hour ambulatory BP, home systolic BP, or aortic stiffness (all P>0.05). We conclude that guidance of hypertension management with central BP results in a significantly different therapeutic pathway than conventional cuff BP, with less use of medication to achieve BP control and no adverse effects on left ventricular mass, aortic stiffness, or quality of life.

Depression and Insulin Resistance: Cross-sectional associations in young adults

OBJECTIVE To examine the association between depressive disorder and insulin resistance in a sample of young adults using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview to ascertain depression status. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Cross-sectional data were collected from 1,732 participants aged between 26 and 36 years. Insulin resistance was derived from blood chemistry measures of fasting insulin and glucose using the homeostasis model assessment method. Those identified with mild, moderate, or severe depression were classified as having depressive disorder. RESULTS The 12-month prevalence of depressive disorder was 5.4% among men and 11.7% among women. In unadjusted models mean insulin resistance was 17.2% (95% CI 0.7–36.0%, P = 0.04) higher in men and 11.4% (1.5–22.0%, P = 0.02) higher in women with depressive disorder. After adjustment for behavioral and dietary factors, the increased level of insulin resistance associated with depressive disorder was 13.2% (−3.1 to 32.3%, P = 0.12) in men and 6.1% (−4.1 to 17.4%, P = 0.25) in women. Waist circumference was identified as a mediator in the relationship between depression and insulin resistance, reducing the β coefficient in the fully adjusted models in men by 38% and in women by 42%. CONCLUSIONS A positive association was found between depressive disorder and insulin resistance in this population-based sample of young adult men and women. The association seemed to be mediated partially by waist circumference.

The association between objectively measured physical activity and knee structural change using MRI

Objectives This study describes the longitudinal association between objectively assessed physical activity (PA) and knee structural change measured using MRI. Methods 405 community-dwelling adults aged 51–81 years were measured at baseline and approximately 2.7 years later. MRI of the right knee at baseline and follow-up was performed to evaluate bone marrow lesions (BMLs), meniscal pathology, cartilage defects, and cartilage volume. PA was assessed at baseline by pedometer (steps/day). Results Doing ≥10 000 steps/day was associated with BML increases (RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.27, p=0.009). Participants doing ≥10 000 steps/day had a 1.52 times (95% CI 1.05 to 2.20, p=0.027) greater risk of increasing meniscal pathology score, which increased to 2.49 (95% CI 1.05 to 3.93, p=0.002) in those with adverse meniscal pathology at baseline. Doing ≥10 000 steps/day was associated with a greater risk of increasing cartilage defect score in those with prevalent BMLs at baseline (RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.69, p=0.013). Steps/day was protective against volume loss in those with more baseline cartilage volume but led to increased cartilage loss in those with less baseline cartilage volume. (p=0.046 for interaction). Conclusions PA was deleteriously associated with knee structural change, especially in those with pre-existing knee structural abnormalities. This suggests individuals with knee abnormalities should avoid doing ≥10 000 steps/day. Alternatives to weight-bearing activity may be needed in order to maintain PA levels required for other aspects of health.

The association between quitting smoking and weight gain: a systemic review and meta‐analysis of prospective cohort studies

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantify weight gain after smoking cessation and the difference in weight gain between quitters and continuing smokers. Five electronic databases were searched before January 2015. Population-based prospective cohort studies were included if they recorded the weight change of adult smokers from baseline (before smoking cessation) to follow-up (at least 3 months after cessation). Thirty-five cohort studies were identified, including 63,403 quitters and 388,432 continuing smokers. The mean weight gain was 4.10 kg (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.69, 5.51) and body mass index (BMI) gain was 1.14 kg m(-2) (95% CI: 0.50, 1.79) among quitters. Compared with continuing smoking, quitting smoking was significantly associated with absolute weight (adjusted mean difference [MD]: 2.61 kg; 95% CI: 1.61, 3.60) and BMI gain (adjusted MD: 0.63 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.80). Subgroup analyses using geographic region found that the difference in weight gain was considerably greater in studies from North America than from Asia. Follow-up length was identified as a source of heterogeneity, such that studies with longer follow-up showed greater difference in weight gain. Effective strategies are needed to encourage smokers to quit irrespective of potential weight gain and to help quitters avoid excess weight gain.

The association between quitting smoking and weight gain: a systemic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies: Smoking cessation and weight gain

This systematic review and meta‐analysis aimed to quantify weight gain after smoking cessation and the difference in weight gain between quitters and continuing smokers. Five electronic databases were searched before January 2015. Population‐based prospective cohort studies were included if they recorded the weight change of adult smokers from baseline (before smoking cessation) to follow‐up (at least 3 months after cessation). Thirty‐five cohort studies were identified, including 63,403 quitters and 388,432 continuing smokers. The mean weight gain was 4.10 kg (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.69, 5.51) and body mass index (BMI) gain was 1.14 kg m−2 (95% CI: 0.50, 1.79) among quitters. Compared with continuing smoking, quitting smoking was significantly associated with absolute weight (adjusted mean difference [MD]: 2.61 kg; 95% CI: 1.61, 3.60) and BMI gain (adjusted MD: 0.63 kg m−2; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.80). Subgroup analyses using geographic region found that the difference in weight gain was considerably greater in studies from North America than from Asia. Follow‐up length was identified as a source of heterogeneity, such that studies with longer follow‐up showed greater difference in weight gain. Effective strategies are needed to encourage smokers to quit irrespective of potential weight gain and to help quitters avoid excess weight gain.

Population attributable fractions and joint effects of key risk factors for multiple sclerosis

Aim: We examined the combined effect of having multiple key risk factors and the interactions between the key risk factors of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: We performed an incident case-control study including cases with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD) and population-based controls. Results: Compared to those without any risk factors, those with one, two, three, and four or five risk factors had increased odds of being an FCD case of 2.12 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11–4.03), 4.31 (95% CI, 2.24–8.31), 7.96 (95% CI, 3.84–16.49), and 21.24 (95% CI, 5.48–82.40), respectively. Only HLA-DR15 and history of infectious mononucleosis interacted significantly on the additive scale (Synergy index, 3.78; p = 0.03). The five key risk factors jointly accounted for 63.8% (95% CI, 43.9–91.4) of FCD onset. High anti-EBNA IgG was another important contributor. Conclusions: A high proportion of FCD onset can be explained by the currently known risk factors, with HLA-DR15, ever smoking and low cumulative sun exposure explaining most. We identified a significant interaction between HLA-DR15 and history of IM in predicting an FCD of CNS demyelination, which together with previous observations suggests that this is a true interaction.