Petter Hopp

A case-control study on scrapie in Norwegian sheep flocks.

Scrapie first was detected in indigenous sheep in Norway in 1981, and from 1995 to 1997 an increase in the number of flocks with scrapie cases was recorded. These flocks were mainly in one geographical region. A study to identify risk factors for scrapie was conducted. The study had three frequency-matched controls selected for every case within the same Veterinary District. A questionnaire was submitted to 176 sheep flocks (42 had been scrapie flocks). The data obtained by the questionnaire were linked to data collected from governmental and industry registers. After imputing missing data using single random imputation, the statistical analysis was performed using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Purchase of female sheep from scrapie flocks, sharing of rams, or sharing of pastures between different flocks were the risk factors associated with the occurrence of scrapie. Of factors potentially sustaining and promoting the infection in the flock, number of winter-fed sheep, number of buildings for housing sheep, rams and ewes shared room during mating period and increase in the flock size were associated with scrapie. We interpret these findings to show that factors involving transfer of sheep between flocks or direct contact between sheep of different flocks are important for the spread of scrapie. Management factors are important for the development of scrapie. However, it was not possible to discriminate between the different management factors in this study at the flock level. Also, factors indicating awareness and interest of the farmer (as well as willingness to contact a veterinarian for diseased sheep) were related to the detection of scrapie in the flock.

The prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep from positive flocks is not higher than in the general sheep population in 11 European countries.

BackgroundDuring the last decade, active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been intensive in Europe. In many countries this has led to the detection of cases of atypical scrapie which, unlike classical scrapie, might not be contagious. EU legislation requires, that following detection of a scrapie case, control measures including further testing take place in affected flocks, including the culling of genotype susceptible to classical scrapie. This might result in the detection of additional cases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of additional cases in flocks affected by atypical scrapie using surveillance data collected in Europe in order to ascertain whether atypical scrapie, is contagious.ResultsQuestionnaires were used to collect, at national level, the results of active surveillance and testing associated with flock outbreaks in 12 European countries. The mean prevalence of atypical scrapie was 5.5 (5.0-6.0) cases per ten thousand in abattoir surveillance and 8.1 (7.3-9.0) cases per ten thousand in fallen stock. By using meta-analysis, on 11 out of the 12 countries, we found that the probability of detecting additional cases of atypical scrapie in positive flocks was similar to the probability observed in animals slaughtered for human consumption (odds ratio, OR = 1.07, CI95%: 0.70-1.63) or among fallen stock (OR = 0.78, CI95%: 0.51-1.2). In contrast, when comparing the two scrapie types, the probability of detecting additional cases in classical scrapie positive flocks was significantly higher than the probability of detecting additional cases in atypical scrapie positive flocks (OR = 32.4, CI95%: 20.7-50.7).ConclusionsThese results suggest that atypical scrapie is not contagious or has a very low transmissibility under natural conditions compared with classical scrapie. Furthermore this study stressed the importance of standardised data collection to make good use of the analyses undertaken by European countries in their efforts to control atypical and classical scrapie.

An evaluation of the Norwegian Salmonella surveillance and control program in live pig and pork.

Population data and apparent prevalence data from the Salmonella surveillance and control program in pigs (NSSCP) from 1998 and 1999 were used in a simulation model to evaluate the efficacy of the program. The model consists of three parts: modelling of individual prevalence at the abattoir (abattoir part), modelling of the number of sampled herds of different sizes when carcasses are randomly sampled at the abattoir (sampling strategy part) and finally, modelling of the within herd prevalence (within herd part). A total of 136,550 sows and 2,866,550 finishing pigs slaughtered, 4446 herds and 11 herds positive for Salmonella in 1994/1995-2000 were included in the abattoir part, sampling strategy part and the within herd part of the model, respectively. The abattoir part showed an average estimated prevalence of Salmonella in sows and finishing pigs of (median) 0.4% (5-95 percentiles = 0.03-2%) and 0.1% (0.04-0.2%) respectively. The estimated number of infected sow carcasses that entered the market was 502 (37-2157) while the estimated number of finishing pig carcasses was 2919 (1218-5771). The probability of being sampled for the 10% smallest herds was (mean) 1.9% (1.6-2.2), to 25% (24.7-26.5%) for the 10% largest herds. The within herd prevalence was estimated to be from 1% to 4% for Norwegian pig herds. The conclusions drawn from this evaluation are that the NSSCP does not have any significant consumer protection effect, and that the documentation could be done more effectively using the herd rather than the individual animal as the unit of sampling. Sampling should focus on the larger herds supplying most of the meat on the market and on herds that produce breeding sows and piglets and thus can contribute to the spread of Salmonella among herds.

Explaining the heterogeneous scrapie surveillance figures across Europe: a meta-regression approach

BackgroundTwo annual surveys, the abattoir and the fallen stock, monitor the presence of scrapie across Europe. A simple comparison between the prevalence estimates in different countries reveals that, in 2003, the abattoir survey appears to detect more scrapie in some countries. This is contrary to evidence suggesting the greater ability of the fallen stock survey to detect the disease. We applied meta-analysis techniques to study this apparent heterogeneity in the behaviour of the surveys across Europe. Furthermore, we conducted a meta-regression analysis to assess the effect of country-specific characteristics on the variability. We have chosen the odds ratios between the two surveys to inform the underlying relationship between them and to allow comparisons between the countries under the meta-regression framework. Baseline risks, those of the slaughtered populations across Europe, and country-specific covariates, available from the European Commission Report, were inputted in the model to explain the heterogeneity.ResultsOur results show the presence of significant heterogeneity in the odds ratios between countries and no reduction in the variability after adjustment for the different risks in the baseline populations. Three countries contributed the most to the overall heterogeneity: Germany, Ireland and The Netherlands. The inclusion of country-specific covariates did not, in general, reduce the variability except for one variable: the proportion of the total adult sheep population sampled as fallen stock by each country. A large residual heterogeneity remained in the model indicating the presence of substantial effect variability between countries.ConclusionThe meta-analysis approach was useful to assess the level of heterogeneity in the implementation of the surveys and to explore the reasons for the variation between countries.

Occurrence of potentially human-pathogenic Escherichia coli O103 in Norwegian sheep

ABSTRACT The investigation of an outbreak of hemorrhagic-uremic syndrome in Norway in 2006 indicated that the outbreak strain Escherichia coli O103:H25 could originate from sheep. A national survey of the Norwegian sheep population was performed, with the aim of identifying and describing a possible reservoir of potentially human-pathogenic E. coli O103, in particular of the H types 2 and 25. The investigation of fecal samples from 585 sheep flocks resulted in 1,222 E. coli O103 isolates that were analyzed for the presence of eae and stx genes, while a subset of 369 isolates was further examined for flagellar antigens (H typing), stx subtypes, bfpA, astA, and molecular typing by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The total ovine E. coli O103 serogroup was genetically diverse by numbers of H types, virulotypes, and PFGE banding patterns identified, although a tendency of clustering toward serotypes was seen. The flocks positive for potentially human-pathogenic E. coli O103 were geographically widely distributed, and no association could be found with county or geographical region. The survey showed that eae-negative, stx-negative E. coli O103, probably nonpathogenic to humans, is very common in sheep, with 27.5% of flocks positive. Moreover, the study documented a low prevalence (0.7%) of potentially human-pathogenic Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O103:H2, while STEC O103:H25 was not detected. However, 3.1% and 5.8% of the flocks were positive for enteropathogenic E. coli O103 belonging to H types 2 and 25, respectively. These isolates are of concern as potential human pathogens by themselves but more importantly as possible precursors for human-pathogenic STEC.

Estimation of the probability of freedom from Bovine virus diarrhoea virus in Norway using scenario tree modelling

Disease caused by Bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is notifiable in Norway. An eradication programme started in 1992. The number of herds with restrictions decreased from 2950 in 1994 to zero at the end of 2006. From 2007, the aim of the programme has been surveillance in order to document freedom from the infection. To estimate the probability of freedom from BVDV infection in the Norwegian cattle population by the end of 2011, a scenario tree model of the surveillance program during the years 2007-2011 was used. Three surveillance system components (SSCs) were included in the model: dairy, beef suckler sampled at farms (2007-2010) and beef suckler sampled at slaughterhouses (2011). The design prevalence was set to 0.2% at herd level and to 30% at within-herd level for the whole cattle population. The median probability of freedom from BVDV in Norway at the end of 2011 was 0.996; (0.995-0.997, credibility interval). The results from the scenario tree model support that the Norwegian cattle population is free from BVDV. The highest estimate of the annual sensitivity for the beef suckling SSCs originated from the surveillance at the slaughterhouses in 2011. The change to sampling at the slaughterhouse level further increased the sensitivity of the surveillance.

No indication of Coxiella burnetii infection in Norwegian farmed ruminants

BackgroundInfection with Coxiella burnetii, the cause of Q-fever, has never been detected in Norwegian animals. Recognising the increasing prevalence of the infection in neighbouring countries, the aim of the study was to perform a survey of Norwegian farmed ruminants for the prevalence of C. burnetii infection.ResultsMilk and blood samples from more than 3450 Norwegian dairy cattle herds, 55 beef cattle herds, 348 dairy goat herds and 118 sheep flocks were serologically examined for antibodies against C. burnetii. All samples were negative for antibodies against C. burnetii. The estimated prevalences of infected herds were 0 (95% confidence interval: 0% - 0.12%), 0 (0% - 12%), 0 (0% - 1.2%) and 0 (0% - 10%) for dairy cattle herds, beef cattle herds, goat herds and sheep flocks, respectively.ConclusionsThe study indicates that the prevalence of C. burnetii infection in farmed Norwegian ruminants is low, and it cannot be excluded that Norway is free of the infection. It would be beneficial if Norway was able to maintain the current situation. Therefore, preventive measures should be continued.

Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in Norwegian dairy goats

BackgroundToxoplasma gondii is a major problem for the sheep industry as it may cause reproduction problems. The importance of T. gondii in Norwegian goat herds is uncertain, but outbreaks of toxoplasmosis in dairy goat farms have been recorded. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of T. gondii infection in Norwegian dairy goats by using serology.FindingsGoat serum originally collected as part of two nationwide surveillance and control programmes between 2002 and 2008 were examined for T. gondii antibodies by using direct agglutination test. In total, 55 of 73 herds (75%) had one or more serologically positive animals, while 377 of 2188 (17%) of the individual samples tested positive for T. gondii antibodies.ConclusionsThis is the first prevalence study of T. gondii infection in Norwegian goats. The results show that Norwegian goat herds are commonly exposed to T. gondii. Nevertheless, the majority of goat herds have a low prevalence of antibody positive animals, which make them vulnerable to infections with T. gondii during the gestation period.

A longitudinal study of the risks for introduction of severe footrot into sheep flocks in the south west of Norway

In 2008, ovine footrot was detected in Norway for the first time since 1948. By December 2012 it had spread to 99 flocks, all in the county of Rogaland in the south west of Norway, and 42% of which were located in the municipality of Rennesøy in Rogaland. The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors for contracting severe footrot in flocks of sheep. A flock was considered positive for severe footrot based on positive virulence test or by clinical signs in addition to a positive PCR test. A retrospective longitudinal study was performed with a questionnaire as the main data source. All sheep farmers (107) in the municipality of Rennesøy were selected for inclusion in the study. The questions focused on direct and indirect contacts between sheep in different sheep flocks and general information about the farm. The questions covered the years 2007-2011. Data were analysed using discrete time survival modelling. A total of 81 (76%) farmers responded to the questionnaire including 29 of 41 (71%) farmers with flocks positive for severe footrot. Factors that increased the risk of a flock becoming positive for severe footrot in the final multivariable survival model were sheep that trespassed boundary fences and came into contact with a flock positive for severe footrot (odds ratio 11.5, 95% confidence interval 4.1-32.2) and at least one flock with severe footrot within 0-1km radius of a farm (odds ratio 8.6, 95% confidence interval 2.3-32.6). This study highlights the importance of upgrading and maintaining boundary fences and encouraging farmers to avoid direct and indirect contact between nearby flocks.

The potential spread of severe footrot in Norway if no elimination programme had been initiated: a simulation model

When severe footrot was detected in Norway in 2008, a surveillance programme was initiated and followed by an elimination programme. By 2013 the disease had spread to two of 19 counties and a total of 119 (1%) sheep flocks had been diagnosed with severe footrot. A simulation model was developed to estimate the potential spread of severe footrot in Norway and to estimate the relative importance of the different spreading routes. The model parameters were based on the rate of spread of the first 38 diagnosed cases and the management and climatic factors particular for Norway. The model showed that by 2013, severe footrot would have spread to six counties and infected 16% of the sheep flocks if no elimination programme had been initiated. If this is compared with the 1% of flocks that were diagnosed in Norway by 2013, there seems to be a large effect of the implemented footrot elimination programme. By 2035, it was estimated that severe footrot would have spread to 16 counties and 64% of the sheep flocks. Such an extensive spread would probably impose a large negative impact on the sheep industry and welfare of the sheep. The most effective way to curb the spread of severe footrot was by decreasing the within county infection rate. This could be achieved by decreasing the contact between flocks or by decreasing the environmental load of D. nodosus, for example by footbathing sheep, culling diseased sheep or eliminating severe footrot in the flock.