Petter Næss

Residential Self-Selection and Appropriate Control Variables in Land Use: Travel Studies

Abstract Several researchers within the field of land use and travel have claimed that self‐selection of residents into geographical locations matching their travelling preferences precludes researchers from drawing firm conclusions about influences of residential location on travel. This paper counters this position. For one thing, if households self‐select into areas that meet their travel preferences, it seems self‐evident that urban structure matters. Evidence from qualitative interviews in the metropolitan areas of Copenhagen and Hangzhou indicates that most of the interviewees’ rationales for activity participation, location of activities, choice of travel mode and route choice contribute to a higher amount of motorized travel among outer‐area residents than among inner‐city dwellers, regardless of any self‐selection of residents to particular types of neighbourhoods. Drawing on data from Copenhagen Metropolitan Area, the paper shows that significant relationships between residential location and travel exist regardless of travel‐related residential preferences. Moreover, car ownership, and to some extent also transport attitudes, is influenced by residential location. Studies treating car ownership and attitudes to car travel as exogenous control variables not influenced by urban structure tend to underestimate the impacts of residential location on travel.

Workplace Location, Modal Split and Energy Use for Commuting Trips

A study of six companies in Greater Oslo indicates that both the modal split and the energy use for journeys to work are to a high extent influenced by the geographical location of the workplace. Employees of workplaces in peripheral, low-density parts of the urban area are far more frequent car drivers and use considerably more energy for journeys to work than employees of workplaces located in central, high-density areas. A study of long-term consequences of workplace relocations within the urban area shows that the immediate increase in average commuting distance of a workplace moving to the urban fringe, has not been reversed by subsequent turnover and residential changes among the employees.

Accessibility, activity participation and location of activities: Exploring the links between residential location and travel behaviour

By investigating relationships between residential location and the availability of facilities, location of activities, trip distances, activity participation and trip frequencies, this paper seeks to contribute to a more detailed and nuanced understanding of the relationships between residential location and the amount of daily-life travel in an urban region. The empirical data are from a comprehensive study of residential location and travel in Copenhagen Metropolitan Area. Differences between inner- and outer-area residents in activity frequencies and trip frequencies are modest and partly outweigh each other. However, differences in trip distances due to the location of the dwelling relative to concentrations of facilities translate into substantially longer total travelling distances among suburbanites than among inner-city residents.

Travelling Distances, Modal Split and Transportation Energy in Thirty Residential Areas in Oslo

A study of the use of car and public transport among residents in 30 residential areas in Greater Oslo indicates that urban planning variables have a significant influence on the energy use per capita for local transport. Residents in local communities with a high density and a short distance to downtown Oslo travel considerably shorter distances and use considerably less energy per capita than those who live in low-density, outer areas. This is true also when the effects of other variables are neutralized. The influence of urban planning variables on the modal split is lower than on energy use. The distribution between public and private transport is influenced most of all by car ownership.

Energy Use for Transportation in 22 Nordic Towns

A multivariate study of 22 Nordic towns indicates that urban form variables have a significant influence on the inhabitants’ average energy use for transportation. A high population density, particularly in the inner and central areas of the town, seems to be beneficial if the aim is to reduce energy use. Towns with a high proportion of blue‐collar workers use more energy for transportation than the average. This may in part be due to the frequent location of such workplaces in outer areas with poor transit facilities. A number of socioeconomic variables, among others income, car ownership and fuel prices, were also investigated. However, the influences on energy use from these variables were lower than the effects of the urban form variables.

Transportation energy in Swedish towns and regions

An investigation of 97 towns and 15 commuting regions in Sweden shows that the developmental pattern has a significant influence on the energy consumption for transportation. The main source for the energy data is the officiai Swedish statistics on fuel sales quantities in the municipalities in 1989, adjusted for fuel consumption in the agricultural sector. For the individual town, a dense pattern of development clearly gives the lowest per capita energy consumption for transportation. At the regional level, however, a decentralized pattern of residence seems to be favourable with respect to energy conservation, provided that each individual town and village has sufficiently high population density.

Cost-Benefit Analyses of Transportation Investments: Neither critical nor realistic

This paper discusses the practice of cost-benefit analyses of transportation infrastructure investment projects from the meta-theoretical perspective of critical realism. Such analyses are based on a number of untenable ontological assumptions about social value, human nature and the natural environment. In addition, main input data are based on transport modelling analyses based on a misleading ‘local ontology’ among the model makers. The ontological misconceptions translate into erroneous epistemological assumptions about the possibility of precise predictions and the validity of willingness-to-pay investigations. Accepting the ontological and epistemological assumptions of cost-benefit analysis involves an implicit acceptance of the ethical and political values favoured by these assumptions. Cost-benefit analyses of transportation investment projects tend to neglect long-term environmental consequences and needs among population groups with a low ability to pay. Instead of cost-benefit analyses, impact analyses evaluating the likely effects of project alternatives against a wide range of societal goals is recommended, with quantification and economic valorisation only for impact categories where this can be done in an ontologically and epistemologically defensible way.

Oslo's Farewell to Urban Sprawl

Sustainable mobility has been an important concern in urban planning and development in Oslo Metropolitan Area since the 1990s. The period has been characterized by concentrated and compact urban development, especially within the municipality of Oslo. This has contributed to a reduction in growth in car traffic. Analyses of selected land use and transport plans and policy documents, professional journal articles and interviews with key actors show that there has been a high degree of consensus about this spatial development strategy. Considerable investments have been made in public transport as well as in road development; the former based on broad consensus. Road capacity increases have been contested among professionals but widely supported by politicians.

Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road-traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions

Abstract Based on a review of available data from a database on large‐scale transport infrastructure projects, this paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for road links in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated traffic volumes in remote regions. The present data do not support this hypothesis. Since previous studies have shown a strong tendency to overestimated forecasts of the number of passengers on new rail projects, it could be speculated that road planners are more skilful and/or honest than rail planners. However, during the period when the investigated projects were planned (up to the late 1980s), there were hardly any strong incentives for road planners to make biased forecasts in order to place their projects in a more flattering light. Future research might uncover whether the change from the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm to ‘predict and prevent’ occurring in some European countries in the 1990s has influenced the accuracy of road traffic forecasts in metropolitan areas.

The Emperor's Green Clothes: Growth, Decoupling, and Capitalism

In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development (often called the Brundtland Commission after its chairwoman, former Norwegian Prime Minister, Gro Harlem Brundtland) launched its repor...