Phil Hider

Updating and Validating the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Score for Risk Adjustment in Hospital Discharge Abstracts Using Data From 6 Countries

With advances in the effectiveness of treatment and disease management, the contribution of chronic comorbid diseases (comorbidities) found within the Charlson comorbidity index to mortality is likely to have changed since development of the index in 1984. The authors reevaluated the Charlson index and reassigned weights to each condition by identifying and following patients to observe mortality within 1 year after hospital discharge. They applied the updated index and weights to hospital discharge data from 6 countries and tested for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Compared with the original Charlson weights, weights generated from the Calgary, Alberta, Canada, data (2004) were 0 for 5 comorbidities, decreased for 3 comorbidities, increased for 4 comorbidities, and did not change for 5 comorbidities. The C statistics for discriminating in-hospital mortality between the new score generated from the 12 comorbidities and the Charlson score were 0.825 (new) and 0.808 (old), respectively, in Australian data (2008), 0.828 and 0.825 in Canadian data (2008), 0.878 and 0.882 in French data (2004), 0.727 and 0.723 in Japanese data (2008), 0.831 and 0.836 in New Zealand data (2008), and 0.869 and 0.876 in Swiss data (2008). The updated index of 12 comorbidities showed good-to-excellent discrimination in predicting in-hospital mortality in data from 6 countries and may be more appropriate for use with more recent administrative data.

Particulate air pollution and hospital admissions in Christchurch, New Zealand

Aims : Winterair pollution in Christchurch is dominated by particulate matter from solid fuel domestic heating. The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between particulate air pollution and admissions to hospital with cardio‐respiratory illnesses.

Estimated need for surgery worldwide based on prevalence of diseases: a modelling strategy for the WHO Global Health Estimate

BACKGROUND Surgery is a foundational component of health-care systems. However, previous efforts to integrate surgical services into global health initiatives do not reflect the scope of surgical need and many health systems do not provide essential interventions. We estimate the minimum global volume of surgical need to address prevalent diseases in 21 epidemiological regions from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD). METHODS Prevalence data were obtained from GBD 2010 and organised into 119 disease states according to the WHOs Global Health Estimate (GHE). These data, representing 187 countries, were then apportioned into the 21 GBD epidemiological regions. Using previously defined values for the incident need for surgery for each of the 119 GHE disease states, we calculate minimum global need for surgery based on the prevalence of each condition in each region. FINDINGS We estimate that at least 321·5 million surgical procedures would be needed to address the burden of disease for a global population of 6·9 billion in 2010. Minimum rates of surgical need vary across regions, ranging from 3383 operations per 100 000 in central Latin America to 6495 operations per 100 000 in western sub-Saharan Africa. Global surgical need also varied across subcategories of disease, ranging from 131 412 procedures for nutritional deficiencies to 45·8 million procedures for unintentional injuries. INTERPRETATION The estimated need for surgical procedures worldwide is large and addresses a broad spectrum of disease states. Surgical need varies between regions of the world according to disease prevalence and many countries do not meet the basic needs of their populations. These estimates could be useful for policy makers, funders, and ministries of health as they consider how to incorporate surgical capacity into health systems. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health.

Impact of ileal pouch-anal anastomosis on female fertility: meta-analysis and systematic review.

PurposeThe aim of this review is to determine the effect of ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) on female fertility in ulcerative colitis (UC) and familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), the mechanisms of this effect, strategies for prevention and management of infertility post-IPAA.MethodsThis paper is a systematic literature review of all articles investigating IPAA and fertility from 1966 onwards that were found searching the Medline and Embase databases. Meta-analysis was performed on relevant studies.ResultsSeventeen relevant studies were identified. Six studies were excluded (duplicate data, one; predominantly not IPAA patients, one; no control group, four). The control groups of the remaining 11 studies were too varied for comparison, and so the meta-analysis was limited to six studies that provided data on infertility both pre- and post-IPAA. Five of these involved predominantly UC patients and one FAP. Average infertility rates were 20% pre-IPAA and 63% post-IPAA. The relative risk of infertility after IPAA is 3.91 ([2.06, 7.44] 95% CI). The possibility of publication bias suggests that the risk may be lower. Any increased risk is probably due to tubal dysfunction secondary to adhesions. Various methods have been proposed to reduce pelvic adhesions, but there is no evidence they have any effect in preventing infertility. Infertility treatment post-IPAA is associated with good success rates.ConclusionsInfertility is increased after IPAA in female patients in both UC and FAP. Both these disease processes affect patients during their reproductive years. This evidence emphasizes the need for careful consideration of fertility in the choice and timing of surgery.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Role of Routine Colonic Evaluation After Radiologically Confirmed Acute Diverticulitis

Objective:To determine the yield of colorectal cancer at routine colonic evaluation after radiologically proven acute diverticulitis. Background:Acute diverticulitis accounts for 152,000 hospitalizations in the United States alone. Current guidelines recommend routine colonic evaluation after acute diverticulitis to confirm the diagnosis and exclude malignancy. However, research suggests that the yield of colorectal cancer after computed tomography–proven uncomplicated diverticulitis may be low. In the era of widespread computed tomographic scanning for diverticulitis, routine colonic evaluation after diverticulitis may represent a nonessential burden on health care resources. Methods:The PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, BIREME, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched. Original studies of colonic evaluation after proven acute diverticulitis were included. Meta-analysis of data from included studies was performed using a DerSimonian Laird random effect proportion analysis. Results:Eleven studies from 7 countries were included in the analysis. Out of a pooled population of 1970 patients, cancer was found in 22. The pooled proportional estimate of malignancy was 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9%−2.8%). Of the 1497 patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis, cancer was found in 5 (proportional estimate of risk 0.7%; CI, 0.3%−1.4%). Of the 79 patients with complicated disease, cancer was found in 6 (proportion estimate of risk 10.8%; CI, 5.2%−21.0%). Conclusions:The risk of malignancy after a radiologically proven episode of acute uncomplicated diverticulitis is low. In the absence of other indications, routine colonoscopy may not be necessary. Patients with complicated diverticulitis still have a significant risk of colorectal cancer at subsequent colonic evaluation.

Folic acid supplementation and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

Aim  This meta‐analysis aims to determine the effect of folic acid supplementation on colorectal cancer risk.

Compensation for Medical Injury in New Zealand: Does “No-Fault” Increase the Level of Claims Making and Reduce Social and Clinical Selectivity?

The issues of patient safety and quality of care have gained policy attention with a growing appreciation of the scale and impact of medical injury in health systems. While the focus is clearly on the prevention of iatrogenic injury, the question of patient compensation is now also considered important, if only because in fault-based tort systems the fear of litigation may itself be a barrier to the disclosure and open discussion of medical error. No-fault systems, by contrast, do not require proof of culpability, and thus may both reduce barriers to compensation and increase disclosure of error. Little evidence, however, is available on the performance of such systems. This article reports on the analysis of two data sources—a sample of hospital admissions and a complete set of compensation claims for medical injury. Both are for the same year and region of New Zealand, a country that has maintained a no-fault system of accident compensation for a quarter of a century. Just over 2 percent of hospital admissions were associated with an adverse event that was potentially compensable under scheme criteria. While the claims process was well targeted, the level of claims making and receipt was low, with the ratio of successful claims to potentially compensable events being approximately 1:30. Comparison of social and clinical characteristics of the two data sets revealed a degree of selectivity. Compared with the hospital events, the typical successful claimant was younger and female and was much more likely to have experienced a surgical adverse event that, while unexpected, was not due to substandard care. It is concluded that, in interpreting these results, account needs to be taken of a number of features unique to the New Zealand system. These include: the limited payoff for a compensation claim (no pain and suffering or lump sum, free hospital care); the relative complexity of the grounds for claim (either rarity and severity or practitioner error); and a history of limited litigation for medical error. This suggests that, while the New Zealand system is well targeted, cheap, and free of financial and legal barriers, a change in legal doctrine alone has not in itself been sufficient to remove completely the selective and low level of claims making traditionally associated with patient compensation under tort.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Factors Influencing Survival Following Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival following repair is essential to clinical decision making when offering abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) treatment. A systematic review and a meta-analysis of pre-operative non-modifiable prognostic risk factors influencing patient survival following elective open AAA repair (OAR) and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) was performed. METHODS MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane electronic databases were searched to identify all relevant articles reporting risk factors influencing long-term survival (≥1 year) following OAR and EVAR, published up to April 2015. Studies with <100 patients and those involving primarily ruptured AAA, complex repairs (supra celiac/renal clamp), and high risk patients were excluded. Primary risk factors were increasing age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologist (ASA) score, and comorbidities such as ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cardiac failure, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), renal impairment, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), and diabetes. Estimated risks were expressed as hazard ratio (HR). RESULTS A total of 5,749 study titles/abstracts were retrieved and 304 studies were thought to be relevant. The systematic review included 51 articles and the meta-analysis 45. End stage renal disease and COPD requiring supplementary oxygen had the worst long-term survival, HR 3.15 (95% CI 2.45-4.04) and HR 3.05 (95% CI 1.93-4.80) respectively. An increase in age was associated with HR of 1.05 (95% CI 1.04-1.06) for every one year increase and females had a worse survival than men HR 1.15 (95% CI 1.07-1.27). An increase in ASA score and the presence of IHD, cardiac failure, hypertension, COPD, renal impairment, cerebrovascular disease, PVD, and diabetes were also factors associated with poor long-term survival. CONCLUSION The result of this meta-analysis summarises and quantifies unmodifiable risk factors that influence late survival following AAA repair from the best available published evidence. The presence of these factors might assist in clinical decision making during discussion with patients regarding repair.

Computed tomographic colonography in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer

This study aimed to determine the sensitivity of computed tomographic colonography (CTC) in diagnosing colorectal cancer and to explore the reasons why these cancers are missed on CTC.

Local anaesthetic infiltration increases the accuracy of assessment of ulnar collateral ligament injuries

Objective:  To assess the effectiveness of a systematic examination of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) of the thumb metacarpophalangeal joint (MCPJ) prior to and post infiltration of local anaesthetic.