Philimon Gona

Relation of Disease Pathogenesis and Risk Factors to Heart Failure With Preserved or Reduced Ejection Fraction Insights From the Framingham Heart Study of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute

Background— The contributions of risk factors and disease pathogenesis to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) versus heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) have not been fully explored. Methods and Results— We examined clinical characteristics and risk factors at time of heart failure onset and long-term survival in Framingham Heart Study participants according to left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% (n=314; 59%) versus >45% (n=220; 41%) and hierarchical causal classification. Heart failure was attributed to coronary heart disease in 278 participants (52%), valvular heart disease in 42 (8%), hypertension in 140 (26%), or other/unknown causes in 74 (14%). Multivariable predictors of HFPEF (versus HFREF) included elevated systolic blood pressure (odds ratio [OR]=1.13 per 10 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.22), atrial fibrillation (OR=4.23; 95% CI, 2.38 to 7.52), and female sex (OR=2.29; 95% CI, 1.35 to 3.90). Conversely, prior myocardial infarction (OR=0.32; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.53) and left bundle-branch block QRS morphology (OR=0.21; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.46) reduced the odds of HFPEF. Long-term prognosis was grim, with a median survival of 2.1 years (5-year mortality rate, 74%), and was equally poor in men and women with HFREF or HFPEF. Conclusions— Among community patients with new-onset heart failure, there are differences in causes and time-of-onset clinical characteristics between those with HFPEF versus HFREF. In people with HFREF, mortality is increased when coronary heart disease is the underlying cause. These findings suggest that heart failure with reduced left ventricular systolic function and heart failure with preserved left ventricular systolic function are partially distinct entities, with potentially different approaches to early detection and prevention.

50 year trends in atrial fibrillation prevalence, incidence, risk factors, and mortality in the Framingham Heart Study: a cohort study

BACKGROUND Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. We aimed to provide such data through analysis of the Framingham cohort over 50 years. METHODS We investigated trends in incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation and its association with stroke and mortality after onset in 9511 participants enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study between 1958 and 2007. We analysed trends within 10 year groups (1958-67, 1968-77, 1978-87, 1988-97, and 1998-2007), stratified by sex. FINDINGS During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), 1544 cases of new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred (of whom 723 [47%] were women). Between 1958-67 and 1998-2007, age-adjusted prevalence of atrial fibrillation quadrupled from 20·4 to 96·2 cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 13·7 to 49·4 cases per 1000 person-years in women; age-adjusted incidence increased from 3·7 to 13·4 new cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 2·5 to 8·6 new cases per 1000 person-years in women (ptrend<0·0001 for all comparisons). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by electrocardiograph (ECG) during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence per 1000 person-years increased (12·6 in 1958-67 to 25·7 in 1998-2007 in men, ptrend=0·0007; 8·1 to 11·8 in women, ptrend=0·009). However, age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation by Framingham Heart Study ECGs did not change significantly with time. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 74% (95% CI 50-86%) decrease in stroke (hazards ratio [HR] 3·77, 95% CI 1·98-7·20 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·0001) and a 25% (95% CI -3-46%) decrease in mortality (HR 1·34, 95% CI 0·97-1·86 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·003) in 20 years following atrial fibrillation onset. INTERPRETATION Trends of increased incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the community were probably partly due to enhanced surveillance. Measures are needed to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation, through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programmes and risk factor-specific prevention. FUNDING NIH, NHLBI, NINDS, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Contribution of Clinical Correlates and 13 C-Reactive Protein Gene Polymorphisms to Interindividual Variability in Serum C-Reactive Protein Level

Background— Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level is a heritable complex trait that predicts incident cardiovascular disease. We investigated the clinical and genetic sources of interindividual variability in serum CRP. Methods and Results— We studied serum CRP in 3301 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants (mean age 61 years, 53% women). Twelve clinical covariates explained 26% of the variability in CRP level, with body mass index alone explaining 15% (P<0.0001) of the variance. To investigate the influence of genetic variation at the CRP gene on CRP levels, we first constructed a dense linkage disequilibrium map for common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning the CRP locus (1 SNP every 850 bases, 26 kilobase [kb] genomic region). Thirteen CRP SNPs were genotyped in 1640 unrelated FHS participants with measured CRP levels. After adjustment for clinical covariates, 9 of 13 SNPs were associated with CRP level (P<0.05). To account for correlation among SNPs, we conducted forward stepwise selection among all 13 SNPs; a triallelic SNP (rs3091244) remained associated with CRP level (stepwise P<0.0001). The triallelic SNP (C→T→A; allele frequencies 62%, 31%, and 7%), located in the promoter sequence, explained 1.4% of total serum CRP variation; haplotypes harboring the minor T and A alleles of this SNP were associated with higher CRP level (haplotype P=0.0002 and 0.004). Conclusions— In our community-based sample, clinical variables explained 26% of the interindividual variation in CRP, whereas a common triallelic CRP SNP contributed modestly. Studies of larger samples are warranted to assess the association of genetic variation in CRP and risk of cardiovascular disease.

Early versus Delayed Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy for Concurrent HIV Infection and Cryptococcal Meningitis in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND. Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) remains a leading cause of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related death in sub-Saharan Africa. The timing of the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated CM remains uncertain. The study aimed to determine the optimal timing for initiation of ART in HIV-positive individuals with CM. METHODS. A prospective, open-label, randomized clinical trial was conducted at a tertiary teaching hospital in Zimbabwe. Participants were aged > or = 18 years, were ART naive, had received a first CM diagnosis, and were randomized to receive early ART (within 72 h after CM diagnosis) or delayed ART (after 10 weeks of treatment with fluconazole alone). Participants received 800 mg of fluconazole per day. The ART regimen used was stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine given twice daily. The duration of follow-up was up to 3 years. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. RESULTS. Fifty-four participants were enrolled in the study (28 in the early ART arm and 26 in the delayed ART arm). The median CD4 cell count at enrollment was 37 cells/mm(3) (interquartile range, 17-69 cells/mm(3)). The 3-year mortality rate differed significantly between the early and delayed ART groups (88% vs 54%; P < .006); the overall 3-year mortality rate was 73%. The median durations of survival were 28 days and 637 days in the early and delayed ART groups, respectively (P = .031, by log-rank test). The risk of mortality was almost 3 times as great in the early ART group versus the delayed ART group (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.85; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-7.23). The study was terminated early by the data safety monitoring committee. CONCLUSIONS. In resource-limited settings where CM management may be suboptimal, when compared with a delay of 10 weeks after a CM diagnosis, early initiation of ART results in increased mortality. Trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00830856.

Long-Term Trends in Myocardial Infarction Incidence and Case Fatality in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s Framingham Heart Study

Background— Whereas the prevalence of coronary heart disease risk factors has declined over the past decades in the United States, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) rates have been steady. We hypothesized that this paradox is due partly to the advent of increasingly sensitive biomarkers for AMI diagnosis. Methods and Results— In Framingham Heart Study participants over 4 decades, we compared the incidence and survival rates of initial AMI diagnosis by ECG (AMI-ECG) regardless of biomarkers with those based exclusively on infarction biomarkers (AMI-marker). We used Poisson regression to calculate annual incidence rates of first AMI over 4 decades (1960 to 1969, 1970 to 1979, 1980 to 1989, and 1990 to 1999) and compared rates of AMI-ECG with rates of AMI-marker. Cox proportional-hazards analysis was used to compare AMI case fatality over 4 decades. In 9824 persons (54% women; follow-up, 212 539 person-years; age, 40 to 89 years), 941 AMIs occurred, including 639 AMI-ECG and 302 AMI-marker events. From 1960 to 1999, rates of AMI-ECG declined by ≈50% and rates of AMI-marker increased ≈2-fold. Crude 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year case fatality rates in 1960 to 1969 and 1990 to 1999 were 0.20 and 0.14, 0.24 and 0.21, and 0.45 and 0.41, respectively. Age- and sex-adjusted 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year AMI case fatality declined by 60% in 1960 to 1999 (P for trend <0.001), with parallel declines noted after AMI-ECG and AMI-marker. Conclusions— Over the past 40 years, rates of AMI-ECG have declined by 50%, whereas rates of AMI-marker have doubled. Our findings offer an explanation for the apparently steady national AMI rates in the face of improvements in primary prevention.

Pericardial Fat, Intrathoracic Fat, and Measures of Left Ventricular Structure and Function The Framingham Heart Study

Background— Pericardial fat has been implicated in the pathogenesis of obesity-related cardiovascular disease. Whether the associations of pericardial fat and measures of cardiac structure and function are independent of the systemic effects of obesity and visceral adiposity has not been fully explored. Methods and Results— Participants from the Framingham Heart Study (n=997; 54.4% women) underwent chest and abdominal computed tomography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging between 2002 and 2005. Pericardial fat, intrathoracic fat, and visceral adipose tissue quantified from multidetector computed tomography, along with body mass index and waist circumference, were examined in relation to cardiovascular magnetic resonance measures of left ventricular (LV) mass, LV end-diastolic volume, and left atrial dimension. In women, pericardial fat (r=0.20 to 0.35, P<0.001), intrathoracic fat (r=0.25 to 0.37, P<0.001), visceral adipose tissue (r=0.24 to 0.45, P<0.001), body mass index (r=0.36 to 0.53, P<0.001), and waist circumference (r=0.30 to 0.48, P<0.001) were directly correlated with LV mass, LV end-diastolic volume, and left atrial dimension. In men, pericardial fat (r=0.19 to 0.37, P<0.001), intrathoracic fat (r=0.17 to 0.31, P<0.001), visceral adipose tissue (r=0.19 to 0.36, P<0.001), body mass index (r=0.32 to 0.44, P<0.001), and waist circumference (r=0.34 to 0.44, P<0.001) were directly correlated with LV mass and left atrial dimension, but LV end-diastolic volume was not consistently associated with adiposity measures. Associations persisted after multivariable adjustment but not after additional adjustment for body weight and visceral adipose tissue, except for pericardial fat and left atrial dimension in men. Conclusions— Pericardial fat is correlated with cardiovascular magnetic resonance measures, but the association is not independent of or stronger than other ectopic fat stores or proxy measures of visceral adiposity. An important exception is left atrial dimension in men. These results suggest that the systemic effects of obesity on cardiac structure and function may outweigh the local pathogenic effects of pericardial fat.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

Importance Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). Loss of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 148 million (95% UI, 134-162 million) to 211 million (95% UI, 193-231 million), and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

Clinical and Genetic Correlates of Aldosterone-to-Renin Ratio and Relations to Blood Pressure in a Community Sample

Aldosterone:renin ratio (ARR) is used to screen for hyperaldosteronism. Data regarding correlates of ambulatory ARR in the community and its relation to hypertension incidence are limited. We defined clinical correlates of ARR, determined its heritability, tested for association and linkage, and related ARR to blood pressure (BP) progression in nonhypertensive individuals among 3326 individuals from the Framingham Heart Study (53% women; mean age: 59 years). Ambulatory morning ARR (serum aldosterone and plasma renin concentrations) were related to clinical covariates, genetic variation across the REN locus, a 10-cM linkage map, and among nonhypertensive participants (n=1773) to progression of ≥1 Sixth Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure BP category (optimal: <120/80 mm Hg, normal: 120 to 129/80 to 84 mm Hg, high normal: 130 to 139/85 to 89 mm Hg, hypertension: ≥140/90 mm Hg), or incident hypertension (systolic BP: ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic BP: ≥90 mm Hg, or use of antihypertensive treatment). ARR was positively associated with age, female sex, untreated hypertension, total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, hormone replacement therapy, and &bgr;-blocker use, but negatively associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and diuretic use. ARR was heritable (h2=0.40), had modest linkage to chromosome 11p (logarithm of the odds: 1.89), but was not associated with 17 common variants in REN (n=1729). On follow-up (mean: 3 years), 607 nonhypertensive individuals (34.2%) developed BP progression, and 283 (16.0%) developed hypertension. Higher baseline logARR was associated with increased risk of BP progression (odds ratio per SD increment: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.37) and hypertension incidence (odds ratio per SD increment: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.33). ARR is a heritable trait influenced by clinical and genetic factors. There is a continuous gradient of increasing risk of BP progression across ARR levels in nonhypertensive individuals.

Cardiac Index Is Associated With Brain Aging The Framingham Heart Study

Background— Cardiac dysfunction is associated with neuroanatomic and neuropsychological changes in aging adults with prevalent cardiovascular disease, theoretically because systemic hypoperfusion disrupts cerebral perfusion, contributing to subclinical brain injury. We hypothesized that cardiac function, as measured by cardiac index, would be associated with preclinical brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neuropsychological markers of ischemia and Alzheimer disease in the community. Methods and Results— Brain MRI, cardiac MRI, neuropsychological, and laboratory data were collected on 1504 Framingham Offspring Cohort participants free of clinical stroke, transient ischemic attack, or dementia (age, 61±9 years; 54% women). Neuropsychological and brain MRI variables were related to cardiac MRI–assessed cardiac index (cardiac output/body surface area). In multivariable-adjusted models, cardiac index was positively related to total brain volume (P=0.03) and information processing speed (P=0.02) and inversely related to lateral ventricular volume (P=0.048). When participants with clinically prevalent cardiovascular disease were excluded, the relation between cardiac index and total brain volume remained (P=0.02). Post hoc comparisons revealed that participants in the bottom cardiac index tertile (values <2.54) and middle cardiac index tertile (values between 2.54 and 2.92) had significantly lower brain volumes (P=0.04) than participants in the top cardiac index tertile (values >2.92). Conclusions— Although observational data cannot establish causality, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that decreasing cardiac function, even at normal cardiac index levels, is associated with accelerated brain aging.

Multiple Biomarkers and the Risk of Incident Hypertension

An understanding of mechanisms underlying the development of essential hypertension is critical for designing prevention and treatment strategies. Selected biomarkers may be elevated before the onset of hypertension, but previous studies are limited by cross-sectional designs or a focus on single biomarkers. We prospectively studied 1456 nonhypertensive individuals who had baseline measurement of 9 biomarkers: C-reactive protein (inflammation); fibrinogen (inflammation and thrombosis); plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (fibrinolytic potential); aldosterone, renin, B-type natriuretic peptide, and N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide (neurohormonal activity); homocysteine (renal function and oxidant stress); and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (glomerular endothelial function). Incident hypertension, defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or antihypertensive therapy, developed in 232 participants over a mean follow-up of 3 years. After adjustment for clinical risk factors, the biomarker panel was significantly associated with incident hypertension (P=0.002). Three (of 9) biomarkers were significantly related to incident hypertension on backward elimination (multivariable-adjusted odds ratios, per SD increment in biomarker): C-reactive protein (1.26; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.51), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (1.28; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.57), and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (1.21; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.43). The incidence of hypertension was 4.5, 6.4, and 9.9 per 100 person years for participants with 0, 1, and ≥2 elevated biomarkers, respectively (elevation defined as ≥1 SD above the mean). The threshold of ≥2 elevated biomarkers for predicting hypertension was associated with high specificity (0.92) but low sensitivity (0.15). Biomarkers of inflammation, reduced fibrinolytic potential, and low-grade albuminuria are jointly associated with the incidence of hypertension. These data support the premise that abnormalities in multiple biological pathways antedate the onset of overt hypertension.