Philip Arestis

Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets

Utilizing time series methods and data from five developed economies, we examine the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, controlling for the effects of the banking system and stock market volatility. Our results support the view that, although both banks and stock markets may be able to promote economic growth, the erects of the former are more powerful. They also suggest that the contribution of stock markets on economic growth may have been exaggerated by studies that utilize cross-country growth regressions.

Aggregate Demand, Conflict and Capacity in the Inflationary Process

The dominant view relating to unemployment and inflation is that inflation will be constant at a level of unemployment (the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU) determined on the supply side of the economy (and in the labor market in particular). Further, the economy will tend to converge to (or oscillate around) that level of unemployment. Moreover, demand variables or economic policy changes are thought to have no influence whatsoever on NAIRU. An alternative perspective on inflation would indicate that there would be no automatic forces leading to a level of aggregate demand consistent with constant inflation. Inflationary pressures would arise from, inter alia, a role of conflict over income shares, and from cost elements, with the price of raw materials, especially oil, being the most important. Insofar as there are supply-side factors impinging on the inflationary process, these would arise from the level of productive capacity (relative to aggregate demand) and from conflict over income shares. This paper focuses on the arguments and the evidence that supply-side constraints should be viewed as arising from capacity constraints, rather than from the operation of the labor market.

Can Monetary Policy Affect the Real Economy

Current monetary policy involves the manipulation of the Central Bank interest rate (the repo rate), with the specific objective of achieving the goal(s) of monetary policy. The latter is normally the inflation rate, although in a number of instances this may include the level of economic activity (the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is a good example of this category). This raises two issues. The first is the theoretical underpinnings of this mode of monetary policy. The second is the channels of monetary policy or, more concretely, the channels through which changes in the rate of interest may affect the ultimate goal(s) of policy. Both aspects are investigated in this paper. Furthermore, we suggest that it is imperative to consider the empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy. We summarise results drawn from the eurozone, the U.S. and the UK and suggest that these empirical results point to a relatively weak effect of interest rate changes on inflation. We also suggest, on the basis of the evidence adduced in the paper, that monetary policy can have long-run effects on real magnitudes. This particular result does not fit comfortably with the theoretical basis of current thinking on monetary policy.

The Relationship between Capital Stock, Unemployment and Wages in Nine EMU Countries

The focus of this paper is to investigate the importance of the capital stock in the determination of wages and unemployment in a range of EMU countries and to compare the results across countries. A time-series analysis is conducted in the case of nine euro area countries, which were selected solely on the basis of data availability and consistency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The paper begins with a short review of the literature on capital stock and unemployment, before it deals with the theoretical model. This is followed by estimation and testing of the theoretical model put forward, using both time-series and panel data. The results are supportive of the main hypothesis of the paper: capital stock is an important determinant of unemployment and wages in the countries considered for the purposes of the paper.

Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment

Abstract We apply unit root tests that allow for two endogenous break points in the unemployment rates of 26 OECD countries. Our results show that unit root tests that do not account for structural breaks are misspecified and suggest excessive persistence.

Financial Liberalization and the Relationship Between Finance and Growth

This major Handbook consists of 29 contributions that explore the full range of exciting and interesting work on money and finance currently taking place within heterodox economics. There are many themes and facets of alternative monetary and financial economics but two major ones can be identified.

Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit

We contribute to the debate on whether the large U.S. federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policymakers will intervene to reduce per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold.

Inflation Targeting in Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to examine the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework as it is applied in the case of Brazil since its adoption in June 1999. For this purpose we first summarize the macroeconometric model utilized by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) in its pursuit of the IT framework. While the focus of this paper is on Brazil, we also examine the experience of other countries with IT (in particular, the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China), both for comparative purposes and for evidence of the extent of success of this ‘new’ economic policy pursued by other IT countries. In addition, we compare the experience of Brazil with IT and with that of non‐IT countries. In the context of non‐IT countries, we ask the question of whether it makes a difference in the fight against inflation whether a country has adopted IT or not. Finally, we examine some features of the Brazilian experience with IT regime.

New Consensus Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal

This paper is concerned with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) in the case of an open economy. It outlines and explains briefly the main elements of and way of thinking about the macroeconomy from the standpoint of both its theoretical and its policy dimensions. There are a few problems with this particular theoretical framework. We focus here on two important aspects closely related to NCM: the absence of banks and monetary aggregates from this theoretical framework, and the way the notion of the “equilibrium real rate of interest” is utilized by the same framework. The analysis is critical of NCM from a Keynesian perspective.

A handbook of alternative monetary economics

A handbook of alternative monetary economics , A handbook of alternative monetary economics , کتابخانه دیجیتال و فن آوری اطلاعات دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)