Philip Guest

Multilevel Models of Fertility Determination in Four Southeast Asian Countries: 1970 and 1980

Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies—Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women’s status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility. The contextual variables account for a modest but significant share of individual variation in fertility and about one-half of the total between area variation in fertility. The women’s status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses.

Rural-urban migration and depression in ageing family members left behind.

Background It has been suggested that rural–urban migration will have adverse consequences for older parents left behind. Aims To describe correlates of outmigration and to estimate any association between outmigration of children and depression in rural-dwelling older parents. Method Population-based survey of 1147 parents aged 60 and over in rural Thailand. We randomly oversampled parents living without children. We defined an outmigrant child as living outside their parent’s district, and measured depression as a continuous outcome with a Thai version of the EURO–D. Results Outmigration of all children, compared with outmigration of some or no children, was independently associated with less depression in parents. This association remained after taking account of social support, parent characteristics, health and wealth. Parents with all children outmigrated received more economic remittances and they perceived support to be as good as that of those with children close by. Conclusions Outmigration of children was not associated with greater depression in older parents and, after taking account of a range of possible covariables, was actually associated with less parental depression. This could be explained by pre-existing advantages in families sending more migrants and by the economic benefits of migration.

The emerging demographic transitions of Southeast Asia.

Among the worlds regions Southeast Asia appears to be second only to East Asia in its potential for completed fertility transitions in the near future. This article uses microdata from 1970 and 1980 censuses to examine the first phase of fertility declines in four major Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia Malaysia the Philippines and Thailand. In spite of wide variations across countries clear evidence emerges of significant fertility declines in all four; moreover within countries once fertility transition is well under way all social groups and geographical areas are affected. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

The path to below replacement-level fertility in Thailand.

The goal was to describe the fertility changes between 1960 and 1990 and the attainment of below replacement fertility during the 1980s and to evaluate the consistency of patterns between own children data and other fertility data. The divergence in data between soruces occurred during the 1960s when there was high fertility. By the end of the 1960s census own children estimates and survey estimates revealed the existence of fertility transition without major socioeconomic improvement. Evidence of the continued decline was in agreement based on detailed comparisons of estimates from the 1990 Census and the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. The fertility decline appeared throughout all geographic regions and social groups. Theories have evolved about the role of modernization in fertility decline and other explanations but little has been offered to explain the pace of fertility transitions and the timing in reaching below or replacement level fertility. Models of fertility transition in developed countries may not be useful in their application to developing countries and the conditions. In Thailand the diffusion of low fertility has spread rapidly and has occurred without structural impetus; the consequence may be that fertility will rise if there has been a postponement of childbearing. Continued low fertility will necessitate social and economic structural adjustments and changes in family structure without the benefit of theoretical or empirical guidance. Thailands fertility decline occurred during a time when only a few other countries were also experiencing change; it is apparent now that there are many countries experiencing fertility transition. Countries that have achieved fertility transition in East Asia (Taiwan South Korea Hong Kong and Singapore) have had distinctive characteristics: compact size rapid economic growth and Confucian cultural heritage which are not comparable to most developing countries. The findings from this analysis of Thailand fertility support the contention of Ronald Freedman that demographers underestimate the pace of social change.

Internal Migration in Thailand

Internal migration of the population of Thailand involves a number of distinct forms of movement. Three forms are identified in this research: single-move, seasonal and repeat. The first can be treated as long-term migration while the latter two are more temporary. All forms are characterized by different geographical flows and different selectivity patterns. Long-term migration is highly selective of young adults, females and the more highly educated. It is most likely to occur between urban areas or from rural to urban areas. Temporary migration mainly involves movement back and forth between urban and rural places and is most likely to be engaged in by those with a medium level of education. The census, the traditional source of migration data, tends to underestimate the levels of migration and overestimate the selectivity of migration. The need for detailed migration data to be used for formulating population redistribution policies is seen in the results of the research.

Policy options when population growth slows: The case of Thailand

Thailand reached replacement-level fertility almost a decade ago, although there has been a lag in measuring and recognising the implications of this benchmark event. Fertility could well sink still lower. The momentum of population growth will ensure substantial further increase before the population levels off, but this is not true in all regions. For example, earlier and faster fertility decline in the North, and net outmigration, have led to a situation where some geographical and age segments of the Norths population are decreasing. Population policy in Thailand since 1970 has had two major planks: to reduce fertility through an active family planning program, and to distribute population away from the large primate city of Bangkok. The paper discusses whether these policies may need to be modified as a result of the major demographic and socio economic changes that have been taking place. It also discusses the limits to population policy in terms of the likely efficacy of various measures that could be adopted, based on both an assessment of the Thailand situation and the experience of other low-fertility countries.

THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON MOBILITY OF OTHER FAMILY MEMBERS IN THAILAND

The effect of initial migration of a household member on the subsequent migration of other household members is investigated. Previous research has documented the strong impact of migration experience in predicting future migration. This article builds on this experience by adopting a social network approach to explain the association between an initial migration from a household and the subsequent migration of other household members. Differentials in socio-economic characteristics of subsequent migrants and factors associated with the encouragement of subsequent migration by initial migrants are analysed. Longitudinal data from the Kanchanaburi Demographic Surveillance System, which allow for accurate modelling of the flow and pattern of subsequent migration, and which help to highlight the importance of household social networks on the migration decisions of left-behind household members, are used. The results indicate that the number of male and female initial migrants in the household, duration of initial migration, relationship to initial migrant, and number of migrants in the village are factors most likely to predict a subsequent move.

THE ROLE OF FAMILY SUPPORT AND OTHER FACTORS IN RETURNING HOME

The present study focuses on the effect of social and other support from the family in the place of origin of migrants and how it impacts upon migrants’ propensity to return. The study uses longitudinal data from a project in Northeastern Thailand called the Nang Rong Project. The analysis shows that monetary support from the family left behind has a significant effect on migrants’ propensity to return home. Household strategies of migration have played an important role in explaining migration in the Nang Rong setting. At the individual and household level, education, occupation and household size were strongly associated with migrants’ propensity to return to their original village. Among the social support variables, duration of migration has significant effects on migrants’ likelihood of returning home. Three variables—marital status, wealth index and whether the person came with an immediate family member—were found to have weak associations with the dependent variable. A major finding from this study was that migrants who have higher education are more likely to stay at the destination.

Longitudinal research designs and utility in the Asian and Pacific region.

Longitudinal research which includes panel research is the term used to differentiate the methodology and utility of prospective studies from that of cross-sectional research. It describes not a single method but a family of methods that measure change by linking individual data across time. In this article the authors provide an overview of longitudinal research design and utility in the Asian and Pacific region which is partly based on the articles presented at the International Conference on Understanding Health and Population over time which was organized in Bangkok on 24 and 25 May 2007 by the Institute for Population and Social Research.

Book Reviews : NEW STRATEGIES IN SOCIAL RESEARCH Derek Layder, Cambridge, Polity Press, 1993, pp. x + 218,

loss of Eastern Europe. These points, and many others, are contestable or, at the very least, require qualification. Furthermore despite lasting for more than 70 years the Soviet model is said to have suffered from ’extreme fragility’, and the post-Stalin period, and in particular the Brezhnev era, is given only superficial treatment. Thus the danger of the grand sweep approach as employed in this book is that it can lead to simplification and unnuanced history. By so doing, it undercuts its essential aim, that of increasing understanding. Despite these problems of explanation and historical treatment, this book is to be welcomed. It seeks to inject into the debate about