Philip Haynes

Complexity Theory and Evaluation in Public Management

Abstract Complexity theory offers a systems based evaluative approach that places importance on holistic evaluation. Systems are seen as relatively unstable, but with some time periods that are stable. The theory provides some important metaphors for evaluating policy systems. The focus on whole systems, rates of change, evolving interactions and attractor states can be argued to be a radical methodology. This article explores an evaluative method where quantitative time series methods can aid the qualitative understanding of complex systems. Rates of change are proposed as key measures. A research example is given that describes the evolution of the policy of privatization and market managerialism of social care services in England. When compared to other models of public policy evaluation like punctuated equilibrium theory, complexity places more emphasis on the overall instability of the policy environment.

New Development: The Demystification of Knowledge Management for Public Services

The public sector should be cautious about the use of classical and technological approaches to knowledge management. There is a need to face the power struggles and organizational politics associated with knowledge growth and dissemination. Knowledge management should promote the high value of team-based professional work and the desire to retain such staff through a collaborative environment.

Responding to Technological Change: IT Skills and the Academic Teaching Profession

Six academics in a new university were seconded to the role of part-time learning technology support. It was necessary to have an informed view of the IT skills level of all academic teaching staff. A selfassessment questionnaire was designed based on the core competencies in the European Computer Driving Licence (ECDL). The results were used to offer a targeted pilot of a new online learning training method. Results showed considerable diversity in the range of IT skills. Over half (55%) of the staff could not use a range of IT software at a prescribed benchmark level. Staff were more likely to be skilled at word-processing and Internet tasks (average score above the benchmark) and less likely to be competent with presentations, spreadsheets and databases (average score below the benchmark). Staff working in science-based subjects tended to score higher. As a result of the survey, some staff were offered an online basic skills training programme. Staff liked the flexibility of this, but also found that they needed personal support and encouragement. It is necessary to raise the profile of IT skills and to argue for their relevance. A range of training opportunities is needed that will assist the needs and motivations of staff. Staff prefer training that they see as relevant to their subject area and professional context. Online software skills training does not provide a single solution, but can add an additional method that will appeal to some learners.

Drug Using Offenders in South London: Trends and Outcomes

In 1993, the Home Office Drugs Prevention Initiative commissioned a study in Southwark, London of 112 drug misusing offenders referred by probation for treatment. There was a high incidence of relapse. After specialist intervention, 63% were identified as having reoffended, although the proportion of burglaries and violence was reduced. Discriminant Function analysis was used to assess whether contact with the probation service and a drug advice centre were significant determinants of preventing reoffending. Better rates of attendance with such agencies did reduce reconviction rates. Over half of the sample had used cocaine or crack. The comparatively high incidence of violent offences (17%) was related to the misuse of nonopiates. Conversely, sole use of opiates was a reliable predictor of nonviolence. Abstinence was only achieved by a small minority (5%). Over half of those assessed for intervention in the sample had recently appeared at Crown Court (higher level courts) with 75% having been sentenced to custody previously, this showed that the cohort was of relatively serious offenders.

Chaos, Complexity and Transformations in Social Care Policy in England

The concepts of chaos and complexity theory can be used to describe change in policy systems. This article does so for social care policy in England from 1981. The author shows the imprecise nature of policy action and the instabilities and fluctuations of social care markets. The growing importance of individualism and independence for older people will increasingly influence the future social care policy system.

Combining the strengths of qualitative comparative analysis with cluster analysis for comparative public policy research: with reference to the policy of economic convergence in the Euro currency area

Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is a well-established method for comparing national public policy similarities and differences. It is argued that Cluster Analysis can add additional benefits to such research when used concurrently with QCA. Cluster Analysis provides a better method for the initial exploration of multivariate data and examining how countries compare because it can work with the full range of available interval data while patterns are created and viewed. This provides the best first method for exploring patterns and likely groupings of countries. QCA then provides a more robust method for theorizing about the construction of such groupings and their relationship around similar variable scores. QCA makes such theorizing transparent. The research example used to illustrate the benefits of combining Cluster Analysis and QCA is an analysis of the evolving of macroeconomic policy for the countries sharing the Euro, comparing 2005 (precrisis) with 2010 (postcrisis).

The relationship between employment and social networks in the older population: A comparative European study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between employment and social network membership in a secondary data set of European citizens aged 50-69 years. Design/methodology/approach – A subsample of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) covering 13 European countries is analysed. Principal components analysis is used to reduce numerous social network characteristics to core elements than can be compared with country of origin, sex and employment status. A logistic regression is used to determine involvement in a community organisation. The independent variables are country of residence, age, sex and employment status. Findings – Those employed were more likely to participate in a community organisation and to have a greater number of friends. Employment status did not affect the amount of family contact. Being employed was found to increase the chances of an individual being involved in a community organisation, but for many respondents, their country of origin had a gr...

Understanding the influence of values in complex systems-based approaches to public policy and management

ABSTRACT Attempts to apply complexity theory to public management have focused on the dynamic systems environment. This accepts that in public systems there are many externalities, unstable processes, and indeterminate outcomes. Resulting practices have focused on system resilience, patterns of practice, and adaptability. This article revisits complex systems and theorizes public organizations as dynamic systems of public values. The rigour of such an original approach requires a juxtaposition of values with complexity theory. Theorizing value systems in public policy implies they are a key element of complexity and provides a significant development for understanding stable and unstable dynamics in public organizations.

The international financial crisis: the failure of a complex system

An examination of the global financial crisis using complex systems theory to evaluate the attempted policy responses.

Social networks amongst older people in OECD countries: a qualitative comparative analysis

Using data from The International Social Survey Programme this paper compares the social networks of those aged 50 and above in 18 countries. Two different types of networks are conceptualised: family contact and community participation. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), international sets are established for four groups of countries. Set one includes countries that only satisfy a minimal number of social network thresholds (France, Norway, Great Britain, Denmark and the USA). Set two includes a homogeneous group of countries with above-threshold rates of marriage and community participation (Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Austria and Canada). Other separate sets with stronger social network features comprise Eastern European countries (set three) and Southern Europe countries (set four) in these sets, family contacts are above the international country average but community participation is less strong. Country sets with low comparative threshold scores in the QCA are argued to be likely to be in greater need of government care policy interventions.