Philip J. Marshall

H0LiCOW – IV. Lens mass model of HE 0435−1223 and blind measurement of its time-delay distance for cosmology

Strong gravitational lenses with measured time delays between the multiple images allow a direct measurement of the time-delay distance to the lens, and thus a measure of cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant, H-0. We present a blind lens model analysis of the quadruply imaged quasar lens HE 0435-1223 using deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging, updated time-delay measurements from the COSmological MOnitoring of GRAvItational Lenses (COSMOGRAIL), a measurement of the velocity dispersion of the lens galaxy based on Keck data, and a characterization of the mass distribution along the line of sight. HE 0435-1223 is the third lens analysed as a part of the H-0 Lenses in COSMOGRAILs Wellspring (HOLiCOW) project. We account for various sources of systematic uncertainty, including the detailed treatment of nearby perturbers, the parametrization of the galaxy light and mass profile, and the regions used for lens modelling. We constrain the effective time delay distance to be D-Delta t = 2612(191)(+208) Mpc, a precision of 7.6 per cent. From HE 0435-1223 alone, we infer a Hubble constant of H-0 = 73.1(6.0)(+5.7) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) assuming a flat ACDM cosmology. The cosmographic inference based on the three lenses analysed by HOLiCOW to date is presented in a companion paper (HOLiCOW Paper V).

HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR

Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics.

Strong Gravitational Lensing with the SKA

Strong gravitational lenses provide an important tool to measure masses in the distant Universe, thus testing models for galaxy formation and dark matter; to investigate structure at the Epoch of Reionization; and to measure the Hubble constant and possibly w as a function of redshift. However, the limiting factor in all of these studies has been the currently small samples of known gravitational lenses (~10^2). The era of the SKA will transform our understanding of the Universe with gravitational lensing, particularly at radio wavelengths where the number of known gravitational lenses will increase to ~10^5. Here we discuss the technical requirements, expected outcomes and main scientific goals of a survey for strong gravitational lensing with the SKA. We find that an all-sky (3pi sr) survey carried out with the SKA1-MID array at an angular resolution of 0.25-0.5 arcsec and to a depth of 3 microJy / beam is required for studies of galaxy formation and cosmology with gravitational lensing. In addition, the capability to carryout VLBI with the SKA1 is required for tests of dark matter and studies of supermassive black holes at high redshift to be made using gravitational lensing.