Philip S. Barry

Simulation in context: using data farming for decision support

Data farming leverages high performance computing to run simple models many times. This process allows for the exploration of massive parameter spaces relatively quickly. This paper explores a methodology to use data farming as a decision support tool. Data farming can be a highly effective in this role because it allows one to present to a decision-maker not only what may be the most likely outcome but what are possible outcomes, especially outliers that might have far reaching impact. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 are a good example of an outlier with very high impact. A case study is presented using a simple terrorist attack simulation and decision-maker utility model.

Leveraging agent based simulation for rapid course of action development

In the spring of 2005 a limited objective experiment was carried out to assess the feasibility of using agent based simulations to enhance co-evolutionary course of action development. In particular, relatively low fidelity simulations were employed to visualize the results of particular courses of action. Over four days multiple courses of action were developed by two opposing teams with similar force structures and then run against one another in an agent based modeling environment to test their ability to achieve the given mission. The results of the experiment indicate that there is significant potential for low fidelity simulations to stimulate objective thinking in course of action development

XML standards as the basis for data interoperability among military C2 systems and beyond

Todays battlefield requires agility in a matter of minutes, not hours or days, but there is a critical data sharing gap at the tactical edge. Implementation of the DOD Net-Centric Data Strategy through XML-based data standards is essential to fixing this problem and providing an environment where interoperable data is available to the war-fighter wherever and whenever needed. To address these challenges, we are developing a collection of data components that provide semantics understood by all, and rules for composing them as needed into data exchange specifications. This effort is known as the C2 Core. Possibly the first major user of the C2 Core is the Tactical Edge Data Solutions (TEDS) Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (JCTD). The TEDS JCTD was initiated to work with the Services to overcome documented gaps in data sharing, and create a Joint approach to delivering data for use in a leader centric, net enabled future.

Using Generative Analysis for Homeland Security: Modeling the Possibilities and the Probabilities

Frequently problems of homeland security require systemic solutions. Tactics, techniques and procedures must be innovatively combined with the latest technological advances to meet an emerging and ever changing threat. This paper provides a simulation based systems engineering approach to evaluate the wide variety of combinations that complex solutions require. A briefcase study for the defense of a large venue is provided to illustrate the methodology described herein.

Multiparty engineering is a contact sport

In this paper, the authors suggest that essential coordination aspects multiparty engineering can be formally modeled with utility and game theoretic approaches. The computational complexity of evolving utility theories which change the payoff structures and consequently the “game” that the boundedly rational participants are playing along with the stochastic nature of the decisions are investigated using an agent-based model.

Systems Engineering Solution for Technology Deployment to Combat Complex Threat Scenarios in the Homeland

Systems engineering has been applied to the problems faced by DHS, including defending the homeland against a complex threat. An initiative currently underway by DHS S&T will use systems engineering to perform analysis against a scenario prior to the field experiment. The systems engineering analysis will help define the specific configuration, location, and Concept of Operations (CONOPs) of the system. Results from the experiment will be fed back into the systems engineering framework architecture in order to refine and tune the analysis. This will give the systems engineers a higher confidence in the analysis and recommendations in future experiments as the system is improved, new sensors are added, and the threat becomes more complex.

Visualization of Systems of Systems Simulations: Density Plots and Trajectory Storyboarding

In the many cases where there are no solvable closed-form solutions for the dynamics of Systems of Systems (SOS), stochastic simulation may be the only practical solution to gaining insight into the systems interactions, processes and outcomes. Gaining this insight often requires producing many instantiations of the simulation, which, depending of the variability of the simulation, may produce huge amounts of data. Statistical techniques exist for summarizing the range of outcomes and identifying and analyzing various model states of interest. Often however, visualization techniques provide a more effective tool in gaining insight in the scope and result of the dynamic processes and interactions. The authors describe and present the use of Density Plotting (DP) and Trajectory Storyboarding (TS), visualization techniques for potentially extracting insights from SOS models.

Optimization of Heterogeneous Simulations of Complex Enterprise Systems

Attempting to optimize the design of a complex enterprise system is extremely difficult at best. The interconnections and human elements inherent in these systems make determining the impact of design elements and changes to these elements challenging. We suggest that a combination of sophisticated modeling and simulation techniques, including the use of agent- based models, and biologically inspired optimization techniques can be used to address the aforementioned difficulties. Finally, we discuss visualization techniques for these types of systems that enhance the ability of subject matter experts and decision-makers to understand the results.

Modeling Information Utility in Systems of Systems

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of pervasive information in a system of systems environment. The paper commences with the context and background of the net-centric environment. An analytic framework is then suggested to describe the effect of increasing information on operations. This is followed by description of the simulation experiment, experimental results and next steps.