Philip Vergragt

Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations

A high factor environmental efficiency improvement, towards a Factor 20 by 2050 AD — needed due to the assumed doubling of the world population combined with a fivefold increase of wealth per capita and a halving of the total global environmental burden — cannot be achieved through good housekeeping and technological innovation alone; any technological solutions will have to be combined with social innovations, in lifestyles and cultures. This paper describes the conclusions of the SusHouse (Strategies towards the Sustainable Household) Project that has been exploring possible socially and technologically innovative strategies for sustainable households. The Project has covered three household ‘functions’: Clothing Care, Shelter (Heating, Cooling and Lighting) and Food (Shopping, Cooking and Eating). These have been studied in five European countries (Germany, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands and the UK). The methodology of the Project has involved stakeholder workshops, the construction of Design-Orienting Scenarios, environmental, economic and consumer assessment of the Scenarios and strategy formulation. The paper describes: (1) the methodology for devising design-orienting scenarios, with examples from the three functions; (2) the results of environmental, economic and consumer acceptability assessments of these scenarios; and (3) comments on how the methodology can be developed and applied.

Sustainable technology development in the Netherlands: the first phase of the Dutch STD programme

Abstract In the Dutch government research programme ‘Sustainable Technological Development’ it is investigated how technology could contribute to a sustainable society. By means of ‘Area of Need Analyses’ and ‘Illustrative Processes’, methods are developed to induce breaches of trend (leapfrogs) in technology development, in order to achieve a factor of 20 increase in environmental efficiency in the next 50 years. Examples are given from the ANAs ‘Sustainable Mainport Rotterdam’ and ‘Feeding’, and from the IPs ‘Sustainable Office Building’ and ‘Novel Protein Food’. Attention is paid to cultural and structural factors relating to technology development

SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT: THE MOBILE HYDROGEN FUEL CELL

he central theme of this paper is how to influence technological development in the T direction of sustainability. This question will be approached from theoretical and practical points of view. Theoretically, the concept of constructive technology assessment is introduced, which aims to manage technological development in directions that are optimal with respect to social acceptance @aey Ouwens et al., 1987; Rip et al., 1995). This concept is combined with that of back-casting, i.e. starting from a desirable or unavoidable picture of the future and looking backwards towards the present situation (Jansen and Vergragt, 1993; for back-casting in industry, see Wang and Guild, in press). Practically, the example of the hydrogen economy will be taken as an illustration. Hydrogen is often considered as the energy carrier of the future: if it is generated by solar cells, wind energy or other non-fossil fuel sources, it can be burned without introducing toxic substances into the atmosphere (Quakernaat, in press). In this context one specific example has been taken: the polymer fuel cell. In this cell hydrogen is chemically combined with oxygen, providing water and an electric current at relatively low temperatures. This type of fuel cell seems to be an appropriate candidate for a power source for personal transportation, such as cars and buses (Prater, 1990; Mallant and Koene, 1993). The polymer fuel cell has been taken as an example (an illustrative process) by the programme Sustainable Technological Development. In this Dutch interdepartmental research programme it is investigated how, starting from a sustainable futural vision, technologies could be developed and implemented that fulfil the necessary functions while at the same time being sustainable (Jansen and Vergragt, 1992; Vergragt and Jansen, 1993). ~

Rotterdam case study of the transition to a fuel cell transport system

Fuel cells in combination with hydrogen are expected to play an important role in a future sustainable transport system. Recent studies have provided an insight into how technological transitions may come about and may be managed. However, there is a lack of methodologies aimed at starting off transitions or system innovations, in practice. This article addresses this issue by presenting a methodology, characterized by a bottom-up approach, to generate a ‘roadmap’ for short-term projects within a long-term perspective. The methodology is applied in a Rotterdam case study of the transition to a fuel cell transport system. The outcome of this case study leads to recommendations for setting up a framework to facilitate and stimulate kicking-off system innovation.

Societal innovation in a constrained world: theoretical and empirical perspectives: New Economics, Socio-technical Transitions and Social Practices

Several recent scientific assessments have offered persuasive evidence that the physical demands of contemporary patterns of energy and material consumption have begun to exceed critical biogeochemical thresholds and to jeopardize planetary systems (IPCC, 2007; Rockström et al., 2009; Aaronson, 2010). Current debates on appropriate policy responses evince skepticism about whether improvement in technological efficiency, including enhanced reliance on renewable energy sources, will alone be adequate to meet the demands of a global population projected to exceed nine billion by 2050.1 Although not impossible, in the words of Paul Raskin and his colleagues (2010, p. 2648) ‘the sustainability challenge presents, as well, the prospect of transcending technological solutions with a transformation in human values and restructuring of economic and governance institutions.’ Under these circumstances, a new conception of the future is gaining traction in the scientific community, one in which farreaching innovations in both industrial production and societal consumption patterns are likely to be required. Systemic changes in the prevailing socialtechnicalculturaleconomicpolitical system are necessary to move in the direction of such a vision. This book will show that there are different dynamic forces that could help shape a comprehensive transition, which will imply a transformation of present arrangements for production and consumption. Some commentators argue that government policies should be the overriding force to help shape this transition, given the urgency of the problems and the need for swift, coordinated and effective actions. Others do not deny the important role of governments, but also contend that due to the complexity of the issues government policies alone will not suffice, and other actors and

From growth to sustainability: cultural transition beyond consumerist lifestyles

This chapter considers how a cultural shift toward less consumerist lifestyle choices might originate, driven not by moral imperatives or environmental movements, but by the core pursuit of human well-being. The history of consumer society is a reminder that cultural transformation of that magnitude could occur in a relatively short period of time. We hypothesize, drawing on demographic and economic trends, that technologically connected, educated, and open to change millennials might lead the way in that transition. Their diminishing interest in suburban life in favour of cities, constricted economic opportunities, and their size and interconnectedness all point in that direction. We envision a scenario in which the core understanding of well-being will change through the combined effects of changing lifestyles, adaptation to the economic, technological and demographic realities, and emerging new social practices. Extensive research on well-being suggests that such reframing can readily incorporate a shift away from consumerist lifestyles. Government should support this nascent transition through policies that enable young urban families to thrive. They should also identify and foster other emerging cultural changes that result in more sustainable and highly satisfying lifestyles. This chapter is about the United States because it a global leader in the creation of the consumer society, with a per-capita ecological footprint about twice that of Europe, and with many emulators across the world. We contend that the US-grounded analysis presented in this chapter has relevance for other parts of the world, and that it can inform research and debate on similar cultural transitions in other national contexts.