Philippe Andrade

Inattentive Professional Forecasters

We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even when updating; and (v) differ in their frequency of updating and forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations are formed by inattentive agents. However building and estimating an expectation model that features two types of inattention, namely sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis and noisy information à la Sims, we cannot quantitatively generate the error and disagreement that are observed in the SPF data. The rejection is mainly due to the fact that professionals relatively agree on very sluggish forecasts.

Inattentive professional forecasters

Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors. These facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information a la Mankiw–Reis, and noisy information a la Sims. However, building and estimating such an expectation model, we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data.

Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes. Not only the extent but also the asymmetry of inflation risks evolve over time. Moreover, changes in this asymmetry have an impact on future inflation realizations as well as on the current interest rate central banks target.

Global Versus Local Shocks in Micro Price Dynamics

A number of recent papers point to the importance of distinguishing between the price reaction to macro and micro shocks. We emphasize instead the importance of distinguishing between global and local shocks. We exploit a panel of 276 micro price levels collected on a semi-annual frequency over two decades in 59 countries around the world, that enables us to distinguish between different types (global and local) of macro and micro shocks. We find that global macro and micro shocks are always associated with a slower response of prices than the respective local shocks. Focusing on structural monetary macro shocks, we show that prices reach their long-run value much slower in response to a global macro shock, as compared to the time it takes for prices to reach their long-run value in response to a local macro shock.

Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs

We exploit the Eurosystem’s longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) of 2011-2012 to analyze the effects that a large provision of central bank liquidity to banks has on the credit supply to firms. We control for credit demand by examining firms that borrow from several banks, in addition to controlling for banks’ risk. We find that LTROs enhanced loan supply in France. Nevertheless, the transmission took place mostly with the first operation of December 2011, in which constrained banks bid more, and larger borrowers benefited more. The opportunity to substitute long-term central bank borrowing for short-term borrowing was instrumental in this transmission.

The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest

We study how changes in the value of the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation target, both in the U.S. and the euro area, using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model that incorporates the zero (or effective) lower bound on the nominal interest rate. We find that this relation is downward sloping, but its slope is not necessarily one-for-one: increases in the optimal inflation rate are generally lower than declines in the steady-state real interest rate. Our approach allows us not only to assess the uncertainty surrounding the optimal inflation target, but also to determine the latter while taking into account the parameter uncertainty facing the policy maker, including uncertainty with regard to the determinants of the steady-state real interest rate. We find that in the currently empirically relevant region for the US as well as the euro area, the slope of the curve is close to -0.9. That finding is robust to allowing for parameter uncertainty Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Inflation Risk Measures and Their Informational Content

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) inflation tail risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes. We document that, not only the extent, but also the asymmetry of inflation/deflation risks evolve over time. Moreover, changes in inflation risk, help predict future inflation realizations. In particular, we show that adding our survey based measures of inflation risk to either the random walk model, or usual survey based mean point forecasts, improves their predictive performance.