Philippe Baumard

Real Time Learning of Non-stationary Processes with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a principled scheme for modeling and learning conditional dependencies from complex multivariate time-series data and have been used in a wide scope. However, in most cases, the underlying generative Markov model is assumed to be homogeneous, meaning that neither its topology nor its parameters evolve over time. Therefore, learning a DBN to model a non-stationary process under this assumption will amount to poor predictions capabilities. To account for non-stationary processes, we build on a framework to identify, in a streamed manner, transition times between underlying models and a framework to learn them in real time, without assumptions about their evolution. We show the method performances on simulated datasets. The goal of the system is to model and predict incongruities for an Intrusion Dectection System (IDS) in near real-time, so great care is attached to the ability to correctly identify transitions times. Our preliminary results reveal the precision of our algorithm in the choice of transitions and consequently the quality of the discovered networks. We finally suggest future works.

National Cyber-Doctrines: Forthcoming Strategic Shifts

This chapter presents a comparison and positioning of several national cyber-doctrines, and an overview of the technological changes that are shaping national policies and national defense systems. In particular, the chapter questions radical changes in technology that are lagging in both comprehension and implementation into cyber-doctrines and national cyber-defense systems.

A Brief History of Hacking and Cyberdefense

This chapter investigates the technological evolution of cyber-crimes from its emergence in the early 1980s to its latest developments in 2013. From this evolution, we draw implications for doctrines, policy, innovation incentives, and roadmaps as we propose the emergence of a new “behavioral intelligence” paradigm, both in the attack and defense arenas.

The Determinants of a National Cyber-Strategy

This chapter introduces the overarching framework in which each nation is developing its own cyber-security policy, and the unique position adopted by France in this landscape.

Cybersecurity in France

This chapter gives a general overview of this monograph and provides an executive summary of its findings.