Philippe Rous

The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in South East Asia

This paper addresses the issue of both domestic and cross border systemic risk for 8 countries in Southeast Asia (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). We use weekly data on individual bank stock prices from 2000 to 2005 to construct bank contagion measures based on the exponential weighted average correlations of the residuals of the market model. Our results show that average pair-wise correlations significantly differ among countries and that the probability that a specific shock extends to other banks is better predicted by asset risk indicators and market based risk measures, such as systematic risk, for cross country contagion. In contrast, for domestic contagion, liquidity risk indicators and bank opaqueness proxies perform better. Our findings suggest that whereas illiquidity, but not insolvency, is a major concern at the domestic level the opposite result holds for cross country contagion.

Product Diversification in the European Banking Industry: Risk and Loan Pricing Implications

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the European banking industry. Based on a broad set of European banks for the period 1996-2002, our study shows that banks expanding into non-interest income activities present higher risk than banks which mainly supply loans. Whereas previous studies (mainly on U.S. banks) focused on portfolio diversification effects we explore risk implications of cross-selling determinants of loan pricing as an alternative explanation. Our results show that higher income from other activities is associated with lower lending rates which suggests that banks may actually use loans as a loss leader altering default screening and monitoring activities and consequently risk pricing.

The determinants of bank stock returns' co-movements in East Asia

We examine co-movements of bank stock returns in eight East Asian countries after the 1997 crisis and attempt to determine the factors that influence them. The return correlations among banks within each country are computed and used as a dependent variable in weighted least squares regressions. The factors were chosen from a wide range of accounting and market-based indicators using a stepwise procedure. The results show that the share of interbank activities in the balance sheet does not explain the level of correlations. However, a strong link is found between the bank return co-movements and bank default risk measured by a z-score. To a lesser extent, the share of loan activities in a banks balance sheet, which is a proxy of opacity, is also a significant factor of the level of correlation.

Do Bank Bondholders Price Banks’ Ability to Manage Risk/Return?

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the relationship between bank risk-return efficiency and bond spread priced in the primary market. Our study is based on a sample of European listed banks for the period 1996-2011. Applying a parametric frontier based on the Battese and Coelli (1993) model, we can compute risk-return efficiency score for each bank at each date. Compared to previous studies, we investigate the effectiveness of market discipline taking into account not only risk and return independently, but also the level of profitability for a given level of risk on the pricing of bond spread. We find that, over the complete sample period, bondholders require a higher spread from more inefficient banks. A closer analysis actually shows that market discipline is not effective during sound economic period, but market investors comes to discipline banks during distressed economic period by pricing lower spread to more efficient banks.In this paper, we empirically investigate whether bank bondholders value risk management, measured as risk-return efficiency (RRE), when pricing bond spreads. Based on a sample of 2,452 bonds issued by 78 European listed banks, for the period 2001–2015, we find evidence that the ability of banks to manage risk affects bond spreads: banks with more capable managers obtain a lower cost of debt. In particular our results show that bank bondholders are even more sensitive to RRE during the crisis period, for relatively poorly rated bonds, for unsecured/subordinated debt, and for long maturity debt. Our findings highlight that bondholders’ monitoring of banks is effective and takes into account the efficiency of risk management during financial and economic downturns, but during sound periods bank bondholders should strengthen their monitoring of risk management.