Phillip Fuller

Developing a decision rule to predict failure: The case of savings and loan associations

The relative costs of misclassifying institutions by their financial health is an issue that concerns researchers. In this paper, a model and decision rule are developed that improve the probability of identifying those Savings and Loans that are predicted not to fail, but are actually failing. For obvious reasons, stakeholders in those institutions are very much interested in avoiding this type I error. The study also makes available evidence that the examination of Z-scores can be useful in identifying other financial institutions that may experience financial failure.

The Impact of the New Real Estate Sector on REITs: An Event Study

This paper examines the impact of reclassifying equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) in the S&P 500 by transferring them from the Financials sector to a new Global Industry Classification Standard sector named Real Estate in an event-study context. The creation of the new sector had a significant impact on REITs included in the new Real Estate sector. Prior to the event date, REITs experienced significant negative returns. But after the event date, REITs also experienced significant positive returns which dissipated over time. The returns prior to (after) the event date would have resulted in a retail investor incurring losses (gains). While the magnitude of the trading volume increased noticeably prior to the event date, overall trading volume was not discernibly impacted.