Pier Vellinga

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Beach and dune erosion during storm surges

Abstract This paper presents the set-up and results of an extensive research programme concerning the erosion of coastal dunes during storm surges. A large number of two-dimensional and three-dimensional mobile-bed model tests has been carried out to investigate the process of dune erosion. The state of art after a series of small-scale tests is summarized. Attention is focussed on large-scale tests carried out in the Delta Flume with random waves up to 2 m significant height. Sediment concentration and orbital velocity measurements are discussed. The large-scale tests have confirmed the validity of a modelling technique based on the dimensionless fall velocity parameter H/Tw. The model results are being applied to check the safety of existing coastal dunes as a water-retaining structure that has to protect the major part of the Netherlands from inundation during storm surges.

Climate proofing the Netherlands.

Regional climate change should not be seen only as a threat; changes to weather patterns could generate opportunities for large-scale innovations, say Pavel Kabat, Pier Vellinga and their colleagues.Dutch courageScientists and engineers in the Netherlands have a reputation for knowing all there is to know about protecting vulnerable land against floods. So when a group of Dutch scientists see climate change as a chance to build a floating Hydrometropole for 15 million people, perhaps we should listen.

The relevance of participatory approaches in integrated environmental assessment

Integrated environmental assessment is a booming field. Its intellectual challenges, its relevance for real life problems, and its generous financial support have attracted many researchers who either assess the environment in an integrated manner, or purport or pretend to do so. This has led to a wide and diverse range of research and policy activities, all sharing the nominator of integrated environmental assessment. This paper has a twofold objective. Firstly, it discusses the main approaches to Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA). IEA is meant to deliver usable (scientific) knowledge to environmental policy making. In order to achieve its goal, IEA frequently uses an integrated assessment modelling approach, but it may also use a participatory approach. Modelling and participatory approaches are sometimes considered irreconcilable, since they are different in scope, use different kinds of methods and may even be based on conflicting epistemologies. However, as this paper will argue, they are increasingly recognised as mutual reinforcing approaches. They need each other in order to improve decision making on complex environmental issues by identifying, using and integrating a broad body of knowledge available from different sources. Therefore, the second objective of this paper is to show the mutual interdependence of participatory and modelling approaches in assisting policy-making. It thereby gives special attention to the various goals and functions of IEA. The contributions of IEA to science are beyond the scope of this paper. Section 2 defines the concept of integrated assessment and explores its possible goals and functions in assisting environmental policy-making. Sections 3 and 4 succinctly provide an overview of approaches to integrated assessment. The authors, working in both fields of IEA, have tried not to hide the mutual differences. Especially the strengths and weaknesses of each approach in assisting environmental policy-making are assessed. Section 3 introduces and explains integrated assessment modelling, while section 4 focuses on participatory integrated assessment. Section 5 takes a different angle in assessing the strengths and weaknesses of modelling and participatory approaches. It discusses three examples of what may go wrong if either one of the approaches stands alone. Section 6 presents conclusions as regards possibilities for combining modelling and participation in IEA.

The European forum on integrated environmental assessment

Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) can be loosely defined as policy‐relevant, multidisciplinary research on environmental issues. Many, diverse activities in this broad field are ongoing, but the approaches lack the structure, standardization and quality control common in disciplinary research. IEA has three stages: “structuring the problem”, “analyzing the problem” and “communicating the findings and insights”. Each stage has its inherent difficulties, not least because problem definition and analysis are neither separable nor unambiguous nor unique. Difficulties are exacerbated in the first and third stages by the necessity for science and policy to work together. Difficulties are exacerbated in the second stage by the necessity of different scientific disciplines to cooperate. The European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment is an initiative to improve scientific quality and policy‐relevance of IEA, by organizing two series of workshops, one looking in detail at current and desired scientific practices, the other reviewing current and establishing further applications of IEA to environmental issues in Europe.

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a countrys or regions vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

On the Flood Risk in the Netherlands

The Netherlands are protected from storm surges and river floods by the Deltaworks: a reinforcement of the primary flood defence system consisting of coastal dunes, dikes and storm-surge barriers. These were implemented in response to the dramatic flooding disaster in 1953. Over the last 50 years, billions of euros have been invested in this scheme creating a feeling of safety in society. However, in this paper we argue that the current sense of safety may be inappropriate. Scientific evidence is growing, which shows that the hydraulic baseline conditions like storm wave properties and maximum river discharges may be different and more severe than recently thought. Climate change and sea-level rise may aggravate this situation. Moreover, the number of people and the value of properties behind the dikes have increased significantly since the coastal protection schemes were designed. In the present situation the flood risk appears to be disproportionately large compared to other daily risks. We conclude that on the short term the existing coastal and river flood protection should be reinforced to accommodate the more extreme hydraulic conditions and protect these valuables. Alternatively, protection levels of different areas should be reconsidered and perhaps reduced. The latter would in fact mean retreat from particular areas

Private finance for adaptation: do private realities meet public ambitions?

The private sector’s role in climate finance is increasingly subject to political and scientific debate. Yet there is poor empirical evidence of private engagement in adaptation and its potential contribution to the industrialised countries’ mobilisation of USD 100 billion of annual climate finance from 2020 onwards to support developing countries to address climate change. This paper analysed 101 case studies of private sector adaptation under the Private Sector Initiative (PSI) of the UNFCCC Nairobi work programme, and examined these against ten ‘adaptation finance criteria’ that were distilled from UN climate negotiation outcomes. Results show that private adaptation interventions complement public adaptation activities. Yet the ten adaptation finance criteria are not met, which demonstrates that the diplomatic UNFCCC conceptualisation of financing adaptation is dissonant from the private sector reality. For example, while the case studies’ investments are ‘new and additional’ to Official Development Assistance (ODA), their ‘predictability’ remains unclear. And despite some commitment for ‘up-scaling’, plans and associated costs for doing so remain undisclosed. Developed countries’ role in ‘mobilising’ private financial resources under the PSI seems limited. It is unrealistic to expect that the UNFCCC alters existing criteria to suit private initiatives, or that the private sector aligns its initiatives to meet existing criteria. This paper advocates monitoring and reporting only of those private investments that principally finance adaptation. This practical way forward would allow private finance to meet criteria such as predictability, transparency, and mobilisation, but would drastically reduce the amount of private investment that could contribute to reaching the USD 100 billion climate finance target.

Climate-proofing spatial planning and water management projects: an analysis of 100 local and regional projects in the Netherlands

Since the turn of the century, an increasing number of local and regional authorities in Europe started making their city or region resilient to climate change, or ‘climate-proof’. Publications about the actual experiences with implementing these adaptation policies are as yet anecdotal, determined by the local context and the methods applied. In order to identify common processes and characteristics, moving beyond individual cases, this paper systematically assesses 100 spatial planning and water management projects in the Netherlands that included climate resilience as one of their objectives. We derive eight defining characteristics that not only increase climate resilience, but are also found to lead to a greater ‘quality’ of the project area. We structure these properties into a stylized sequence: (i) a longer timeframe, (ii) an integrative and sustainable approach, (iii) consideration of new spatial functions, (iv) a broader spatial context, (v) participation of multiple stakeholders, (vi) new opportunities for entrepreneurs, (vii) increased cost-effectiveness, and (viii) enhanced quality of the project area. The assessment also suggests four process-related conditions that contribute to the success of a project: early incorporation of adaptation; multi-actor collaboration and co-creation of knowledge; integrated, multifunctional and forward-looking solutions; and early political commitment.

Climate Science and Climate Policy: Improving the Science/Policy Interface

The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.