Pierluigi Montalbano

Assessing the trade impact of the European Neighbourhood Policy on the EU-MED Free Trade Area

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) set an additional objective for the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs): the prospect of ‘a stake in the internal market’. The launch of this new policy has been the occasion for a revival of empirical studies aimed at assessing the impact of the EU-MED partnership on bilateral trade. The novelty of this work is twofold: (i) to present nonparametric matching estimators besides gravity estimates; (ii) to assume as a counterfactual of the treatment the ex-post long-run average treatment effects of the Europe Agreements. By controlling for likely selection bias and country and time heterogeneity, using both qualitative and quantitative measures of the policy variable, we assess ex-post the trade-enhancing impact of the EU preferential agreements towards SMCs and ex ante the actual efficacy of the ENP.

Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern Europe

Trade liberalization is the emerging issue of development studies. It is not only the key component of the current wave of globalization1 but also the most direct means by which globalization influences poverty dynamics in the developing countries. The debate on the trade liberalization and poverty nexus is very lively (Cline, 2004): on the one hand, common wisdom suggests that openness to trade and factor flows offer remarkable opportunities for the economic and political progress of countries (hence, the main international organizations advocate structural reforms centred on trade openness for the developing countries). On the other hand, empirical studies on the impact of trade liberalization on poverty do not reach a common stand on the issue (Hertel and Winters, 2005; IPALMO, 2005) and trade openness for the most part in developing countries translates into a growing feeling of insecurity and uncertainty towards future poverty dynamics. This fosters intense political debate on the options and strategies available to help developing countries capture fully the benefits of trade integration, and to reduce the likely negative effects.2 This debate is currently taking place within the WTO, in the throes of carrying out the Doha Development Agenda, and within the EU under the framework of the new Cotonou Agreement, which established a set of Regional Economic Partnership Agreements with developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific — and of the enlargement towards CEECs (Central and Eastern European Countries).

The Trade Specialization of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa: A Threat to Whom?

This article looks at the characteristics and evolution over the last ten years of the commodities trade specialization of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS). Unlike earlier studies, this work offers an evolutionary and comprehensive assessment of the trade challenges posed by CIBS to the global trading system. To this end, we adopt the notion of “trade specialization cluster,” i.e., a group of countries sharing a common trade specialization at a level higher than experienced in countries outside the group. Clusters are drawn by using the crisp cluster technique. Our findings contribute to partial mitigation of the pessimistic view which looks at CIBS as a source of threat to the developed world—with the relevant exception of China—while highlighting a competitiveness threat for developing countries.

Trade Patterns and Trade Clusters: China, India, Brazil and South Africa in the Global Trading System

The present paper analyzes the evolution of the specialization and trade patterns of China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) and other WTO countries. It aims to provide an answer to the following questions: is there a tendency to a multi-polarization of trade patterns? If so, is CIBS’ rise leading to new clusters with or among CIBS or other emerging countries? Also, ultimately, does this multi-polarization have a regional element to it? The paper deals with the above questions by presenting: i) a world map of trade clusters involving WTO countries and CIBS; ii) a comparison of the above clusters and their key characteristics in the last decade; and iii) the key drivers of clusters’ trends. The novelty of this study is twofold: first, it adopts a more comprehensive dataset for a wide range of countries and trade dimensions; second, it provides an evolutionary look at the clusters’ trends. The empirical results do not show neither a remarkable phenomenon of multi-polarization, nor evidence of CIBS as a significant separate group and/or regional agglomeration

Agricultural (Dis)Incentives and Food Security: is there a link?

Abstract Using the World Bank database “Distortions to agricultural incentives,” this paper analyzes the impact that agricultural (dis)incentives have on food security for a wide sample of countries over the 1990‐2010 period. We adopt a continuous treatment approach applying generalized propensity score matching to reduce potential biases stemming from differences in observed country characteristics. The results provide strong evidence of self‐selection and heterogeneous food security impacts at different levels of policy intensity. Estimates of the dose‐response functions show that both discrimination against agriculture and large support for it lead to poor performance in the availability, access, and utilization dimensions of food security. JEL codes: C21, F14, F60, O50, Q17.

Are EU trade preferences really effective? An impact evaluation assessment of the Southern Mediterranean Countries’ case

Abstract This work assesses the causal impact of the EU trade preferences granted to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) in agriculture and fishery products over the period 2004–2014. It overcomes some of the weaknesses of previous assessments and presents several methodological improvements. Firstly, it relies on a continuous treatment – i.e. preferential margins – to capture the ‘average treatment effect’ of trade preferences, rather than on a binary treatment based on dummy variables. Secondly, it uses highly disaggregated data at sectoral level in order to evaluate properly the preferential treatment. Thirdly, it applies a non-parametric matching technique for continuous treatment – specifically, a generalized propensity score matching. The results show, on the one hand, that the impact of the EU preferences is positive and significant on SMCs trade and is better evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. On the other hand, they demonstrate that the relationship between preferences and trade flows is asymmetric and warn against the risk of providing too much of a good thing. These results raise important issues for policy-making. First, they demonstrate that raising the level of preferences is not the solution to foster the SMCs trade towards EU. Second, that the policy-makers should put more emphasis on complementary factors other than trade barriers.

International Linkages, Value-Added Trade, and Firm Productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean

This chapter addresses the following research questions: (i) Are firms characterized by international linkages more productive than other firms? (ii) Are those belonging to industries more involved in GVCs even more productive? To this end, we combine the World Bank Enterprise Survey dataset with the new OECD-WTO TiVA dataset and present three main empirical exercises: (1) an analysis of productivity premia associated with participation in international trade and presence of inward FDI; (2) a Cobb–Douglas output function expanded to firms’ international linkages; (3) a further expanded version of the above relationship including the TiVA-based indicators of value added trade and industry participation and position in the global value chain. Our empirical outcomes confirm the presence of a positive causal relationship between participation in international activities and firm performance in the LAC region. Focusing on four big Latin American countries we show that the actual level of involvement into GVCs matters as well.

The Trade Competitiveness of Southern Emerging Economies: A Multidimensional Approach Through Cluster Analysis

This paper investigates the trade competitiveness of the new emerging Southern economies – China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) – with respect to their main global partners. Starting from the commonly held view that countries with trade patterns similar to those of emerging countries are likely to suffer losses, we propose a multidimensional approach based on cluster analysis, both crisp and fuzzy, as an alternative strategy for assessing similarity in global trade patterns. On the basis of key trade characteristics drawn from the diverse strands of trade theory, we assess the relative position of CIBS within global trade patterns and their evolution over time. Unlike previous studies, our results do not support the hypothesis of the presence of a competitiveness threat from Southern emerging countries towards the main industrialised economies.

Cultural policies and local development: theory and practices

The aim of this work study is to emphasize the need and urgency to for innovation in cultural governmental policies. Innovation is necessary because new technologies have fundamentally altered the production processes, giving giving new and more importance to intangible elements and thus necessitating enhanced policy innovation. Global competitiveness has increased for those activities which incorporate research and creativity. In this context, and from an economic point of view, the cultural and creative activities play an increasingly important role - both intrinsically, itself and for their impact on other industries. Indeed economic theory has begun to rethink the development processes and global competition, taking into account intangible factors. The policies, and in particular cultural ones, must therefore follow suit, because cultural and creative activities actively contribute defining the conditions in terms of human capital and creativity, for a «smart» and sustainable territorial development. Some drawn from practical experiences show that cultural policies, whichthat have actively supported the innovations of processes and products, have also had positive effects on local economies.

The Gender Impact of Microfinance: The Case of Wekembe in Uganda

Microfinance industry has grown massively in the past decades. Even if it is commonly considered as an importantdevelopment tool, the evidence of the socio-economic impact of microfinance is mixed, regardless of what methodology hasbeen applied. The purpose of this study is to assess the socio-economic impact of microfinance on the clients of amicrofinance program in Uganda, named Wekembe. To do so, we have conducted a survey on 294 Wekembe’s clients andwe have used the survey results to build a dataset, which by means of different methodologies – controlling also for selectionbias by means of a generalized propensity score (GPS) matching technique - allows us to analyse the impact ofmicrofinance on Wekembe clients’ savings and women clients’ empowerment.