Piero Demetrio Falorsi

Small area estimation at provincial level in the Italian labour force survey

With regard to the Italian Labour Force Survey (LFS), this work presents the results of a research project aiming to find estimation methods which improve the reliability of the estimates at the level ofprovinces. The 95 provinces areplanned domains, within geographical regions, for which separate samples have been planned, designed and selected. We consider the following estimators:post-stratified ratio, Fay-Herriot andthree time series estimators which generalize the Fay-Herriot estimator. Furthermore, we develop two empirical analyses: the first is a comparative analysis by means o( a Monte Carlo simulation from a real time series obtained from bi-annual data of LFS; in the second analysis we develop a comparative study of the estimators using real bi-annual survey data and the estimates of MSE of estimators.

Estimates based on preliminary data from a specific subsample and from respondents not included in the subsample

Various approaches to obtaining estimates based on preliminary data are outlined. A case is then considered which frequently arises when selecting a subsample of units, the information for which is collected within a deadline that allows preliminary estimates to be produced. At the moment when these estimates have to be produced it often occurs that, although the collection of data on subsample units is still not complete, information is available on a set of units which does not belong to the sample selected for the production of the preliminary estimates. An estimation method is proposed which allows all the data available on a given date to be used to the full-and the expression of the expectation and variance are derived. The proposal is based on two-phase sampling theory and on the hypothesis that the response mechanism is the result of random processes whose parameters can be suitably estimated. An empirical analysis of the performance of the estimator on the Italian Survey on building permits concludes the work.