Pierpaolo Zara

Relationships between seasonal patterns of live fuel moisture and meteorological drought indices for Mediterranean shrubland species

Measurements of seasonal patterns of live fuel moisture content and ignitability (in terms of time to ignition) of four Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy). Relationships between the two variables were evaluated. Relationships between live fuel moisture content and environmental conditions (i.e. rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture) were analysed. Two groups of species were identified in relation to the different response of live fuel moisture content to seasonal meteorological conditions. Seasonal patterns of live fuel moisture content were also compared with five meteorological drought indices: Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, Keetch–Byram Drought Index, Canopy Drought Stress Index and Cumulative Water Balance Index. In addition, the capability of the meteorological drought indices to describe moisture variation for each species was evaluated. Although the Drought Code was formulated to describe changes in the moisture content of dead fuel, it was shown to have a good potential for modelling live fuel moisture variation of a group of shrubland species that are sensitive to meteorological conditions, with a clear and large decrease of moisture content during the drought season.

Seasonal variations of live moisture content and ignitability in shrubs of the Mediterranean basin

The objectives of the present study were (i) to describe the seasonal pattern of ignition delay (ID time) and moisture content of live fine fuel (LFMC) for eight common shrub species of the Western Mediterranean Basin, and (ii) to evaluate the relationships between LFMC and ignitability. The experiment was carried out in a shrubland area located in Sardinia, Italy. LFMC and time to ignition or ID time values were determined monthly or twice a month throughout the year. Ignitability was determined by laboratory tests. Meteorological data were also collected from a weather station located in the study area. Significant linear regression equations of ID time v. LFMC were found for most of the species, with R2 values ranging from 67 to 94%. In general, very low values of ID time were observed when LFMC ranged from 70 to 100%. In addition, two groups of species were identified, depending on seasonal changes of both LFMC and ID time (or ignitability): (i) species with LFMC not greater than 100% and high ignitability values all throughout the year, and (ii) species with large seasonal variability of LFMC and ignitability values that were low in winter and high in summer. Significant differences in ignitability among species were also observed.

Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Abstract Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.