Pierre Camberlin

Rainfall Anomalies in the Source Region of the Nile and Their Connection with the Indian Summer Monsoon

Abstract In light of the droughts and subsequent food crises that have plagued the Ethiopia–Sudan region in the course of its history, and especially during the last 3 decades, the author examines both the interannual and intraseasonal variabilities of the July–September rains and compares them to the Indian summer monsoon. Regional rainfall indexes for the region stretching from Eritrea to Lake Victoria are computed using seasonal totals for the period 1901–88. Daily data for 1982–88 are also considered. Though all these regions are only partly affected by the Indian monsoon cross-equatorial flow and although they are separated from India by an extensive dry belt (Red Sea, Somalia, west Arabian Sea), there exists a close association between summer rainfall variations in India and in the western parts of East Africa. An even stronger relationship is revealed between these latter regions and Bombay surface pressure, with as much as 79% of the variance in common during 1953–88. This relationship has been vi...

Spatial Coherence of Tropical Rainfall at the Regional Scale

This study examines the spatial coherence characteristics of daily station observations of rainfall in five tropical regions during the principal rainfall season(s): the Brazilian Nordeste, Senegal, Kenya, northwestern India, and northern Queensland. The rainfall networks include between 9 and 81 stations, and 29–70 seasons of observations. Seasonal-mean rainfall totals are decomposed in terms of daily rainfall frequency (i.e., the number of wet days) and mean intensity (i.e., the mean rainfall amount on wet days). Despite the diverse spatiotemporal sampling, orography, and land cover between regions, three general results emerge. 1) Interannual anomalies of rainfall frequency are usually the most spatially coherent variable, generally followed closely by the seasonal amount, with the daily mean intensity in a distant third place. In some cases, such as northwestern India, which is characterized by large daily rainfall amounts, the frequency of occurrence is much more coherent than the seasonal amount. 2) On daily time scales, the interstation correlations between amounts on wet days always fall to insignificant values beyond a distance of about 100 km. The spatial scale of daily rainfall occurrence is larger and more variable among the networks. 3) The regional-scale signal of the seasonal amount is primarily related to a systematic spatially coherent modulation of the frequency of occurrence.

Compared regimes of NDVI and Rainfall in semi-arid regions of Africa

Bi‐monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at an 8 km spatial resolution from the advanced very high resolution radiometers (AVHRR) was used from 1981 to 1995 to analyse the vegetation response to rainfall supply in semi‐arid regions of Africa. Within the 200–600 mm annual rainfall belt, for which the apparent NDVI response to rainfall was the strongest, three regions were selected which exhibited different patterns in their NDVI regimes and/or relationships with rainfall. The regions, located in western, southern and eastern Africa, were split into coherent sub‐regions in terms of mean regime of photosynthetic activity through a cluster analysis. Overall, intra‐regional differences were found to be of relatively minor importance compared with inter‐regional differences. The mean annual rain‐use efficiency (RUEa) was the highest in southern Africa, followed by that in eastern Africa, and it was the lowest in western Africa. In eastern Africa, a distinctive feature was found which consisted of the dissimilar vegetation response to the two rainy seasons. For a given rainfall amount, the NDVI peak was comparatively higher for the short versus the long rains. Then, in all three regions, the correlation between rainfall and NDVI regimes was found to be significantly high. Moreover, the lag between the rainfall and NDVI peaks, which was found to be the smallest in western Africa (1 month), and the highest in southern Africa (over 1.5 month), was determined to be related to the increased rainfall rate before the peak. In view of these results, it is shown that the dominant cause for the inter‐regional discrepancies, at the spatial and temporal scales considered, is the structure of the rainy season (distribution, concentration) more than the potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover or soil type.

The effects of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought

Tropical cyclones are one of the prominent weather systems that are generated over the tropical oceans. The cyclones that develop in the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) usually travel west then southwest and finally recurve to southeast, generally before reaching the East African coast. However, it is shown in this study how SWIO-tropical cyclones/depressions can indirectly affect Ethiopian weather. Using correlation and composite analyses, interannual and intraseasonal rainfall variations in Ethiopia were compared with the frequency and time of occurrence of the tropical cyclones. Years showing the consecutive occurrence of several tropical depressions over the SWIO coincide with the drought years of Ethiopia. Reciprocally, years of abnormally low frequency of tropical cyclones are associated with heavy rainfall in Ethiopia. Belg rainfall (‘small rains’, February–May) is much more influenced by the cyclonic activity than Kiremt rainfall (‘big rains’, June–September), which occurs outside the cyclonic season of the Southeast Indian Ocean. On a daily basis, rainfall activity during the Belg period is significantly reduced when a tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, before picking up again a few days later. No systematic time-lag was found between the cyclone occurrence and the decrease in daily rainfall amounts. However, at interannual time-scales, a higher (lower) frequency of tropical depressions during the months of November–January tends to be followed by abnormally low (high) Belg rainfall. One of the mechanisms suggested to explain this seasonal persistence in the frequency of tropical depressions involves sea-surface temperatures in the SWIO, from where many of the depressions originate. The atmospheric processes accounting for the teleconnection between Ethiopia rainfall and tropical depressions were examined. Monthly anomalies of upper air winds for years showing frequent occurrence of tropical depressions proved significant not only over the SWIO, but also the Northern Hemisphere above Northeast Africa. In addition to a slightly enhanced cross-equatorial flow, diverting moisture advection towards the active centre of the system, much stronger than usual equatorial easterlies in the upper troposphere and a reduced southward excursion of the subtropical jet stream result in weaker convective activity over Ethiopia.

An improvement of June–September rainfall forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April–May moist static energy content (1968–1997)

This study provides statistical evidence that June–September Sahelian rainfall hindcasts currently based on oceanic thermal predictors apprehend more the negative trend than the interannual rainfall variations. Four physically meaningful predictors of June–September Sahel rainfall are first selected through the near-surface April–May information and several experimental hindcasts provided. We then discuss the skills achieved using regression techniques and cross-validated discriminant functions. In that context, 8/11 of the driest seasons and 8/10 of the wettest are correctly predicted. Finally using completely independent training and working periods we show that better and significant hindcast skills are obtained by adding regional moist static energy predictors to the large-scale sea surface temperature information.

Characterization of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of west African vegetation between 1982 and 2002 by means of NOAA AVHRR NDVI data

Abstract The interannual and intraseasonal variability of West African vegetation over the period 1982–2002 is studied using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). The novel independent component analysis (ICA) technique is applied to extract the main modes of the interannual variability of the vegetation, among which two modes are worth describing. The first component (IC1) describes NDVI variability over the Sahel from August to October. A strong photosynthetic activity over the Sahel is related to above-normal convection and rainfall within the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in summertime and is partly associated with colder (warmer) SST in the eastern tropical Pacific (the Mediterranean). The second component (IC2) depicts a dipole pattern between the Sahelian and Guinean regions during the northern summer followed by a southward-propagating signal from October to December. It is associated with a north–south dipole in convec...

Nile Basin Climates

The climate of the Nile Basin is characterised by a strong latitudinal wetness gradient. Whereas the areas north of 18°N remain dry most of the year, to the south there is a gradual increase of monsoon precipitation amounts. Rainfall regimes can be divided into 9 types, among which summer peak regimes dominate. In the southern half of the basin, mesoscale circulation features and associated contrasts in local precipitation patterns develop as a result of a complex interplay involving topography, lakes and swamps. Precipitation changes and variability show up as 3 distinct modes of variability. Drying trends since the 1950s are found in central Sudan and to some extent the Ethiopian Highlands. The equatorial lakes region is characterised by occasional very wet years (e.g. 1961, 1997). The interannual variations are strongly, but indirectly influenced by El-Nino / Southern Oscillation. Sea surface temperature variations over other ocean basins, especially the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans, also play a significant role. Projections for the late twenty-first century show a 2-4°C temperature increase over the basin, depending on the scenario, but rainfall projections are more uncertain. Most models tend to predict a rainfall increase in the equatorial regions, but there is little consistency between models over the tropical regions.

Vegetation structure and greenness in Central Africa from Modis multi-temporal data

African forests within the Congo Basin are generally mapped at a regional scale as broad-leaved evergreen forests, with the main distinction being between terra-firme and swamp forest types. At the same time, commercial forest inventories, as well as national maps, have highlighted a strong spatial heterogeneity of forest types. A detailed vegetation map generated using consistent methods is needed to inform decision makers about spatial forest organization and their relationships with environmental drivers in the context of global change. We propose a multi-temporal remotely sensed data approach to characterize vegetation types using vegetation index annual profiles. The classifications identified 22 vegetation types (six savannas, two swamp forests, 14 forest types) improving existing vegetation maps. Among forest types, we showed strong variations in stand structure and deciduousness, identifying (i) two blocks of dense evergreen forests located in the western part of the study area and in the central part on sandy soils; (ii) semi-deciduous forests are located in the Sangha River interval which has experienced past fragmentation and human activities. For all vegetation types enhanced vegetation index profiles were highly seasonal and strongly correlated to rainfall and to a lesser extent, to light regimes. These results are of importance to predict spatial variations of carbon stocks and fluxes, because evergreen/deciduous forests (i) have contrasted annual dynamics of photosynthetic activity and foliar water content and (ii) differ in community dynamics and ecosystem processes.

Intraseasonal wind anomalies related to wet and dry spells during the “long” and “short” rainy seasons in Kenya

SummaryThe largest part of Kenya exhibits two major rainy seasons, the March–May «long rains» and the October–December «short rains», both related to the passage of the ITCZ, but differing in the amount of rainfall recorded and its interannual variability. In order to investigate whether these differences also apply at intraseasonal time-scales, daily rainfall data for the peak month of each rainy season (April and November) were collected for 7 consecutive years (1982–1988). The network comprises 68 stations, from which a classification of the spatial patterns of daily rainfall anomalies has been performed. Wind anomalies corresponding to the various rainfall types and to specific regional rainfall departures were determined using four pilot balloon stations and one radiosonde station. They revealed that there exist significant differences between upper-air circulation anomalies exhibited in the «long» and «short» rainy seasons, especially as far as rain spells in the Eastern Highlands are concerned. In that region, easterly anomalies in the «short rains» period are associated with an increase in rainfall. During the «long rains», enhanced easterlies more generally coincide with an overall drop of convection in the country. In Western Kenya, wet conditions are more systematically associated to westerly wind anomalies.

Extracting Subseasonal Scenarios: An Alternative Method to Analyze Seasonal Predictability of Regional-Scale Tropical Rainfall

AbstractCurrent seasonal prediction of rainfall typically focuses on 3-month rainfall totals at regional scale. This temporal summation reduces the noise related to smaller-scale weather variability but also implicitly emphasizes the peak of the climatological seasonal cycle of rainfall. This approach may hide potentially predictable signals when rainfall is lower: for example, near the onset or cessation of the rainy season. The authors illustrate such a case for the East African long rains (March–May) on a network of 36 stations in Kenya and north Tanzania from 1961 to 2001. Spatial coherence and potential predictability of seasonal rainfall anomalies associated with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies clearly peak during the early stage of the rainy season (in March), while the largest rainfall (in April and May) is far less spatially coherent; the latter is shown to contain a large noise component at the station scale that characterizes interannual variability of the March–May seasonal to...