Pieter Johannes Verkerk

Ex ante impact assessment of policies affecting land use, Part B: application of the analytical framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives.

Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models

Forests of the European Union (EU) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere over the past 50 years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European forest having been higher than harvest rates. EU countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of GHG by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink.

Estimating Dead Wood During National Forest Inventories: A Review of Inventory Methodologies and Suggestions for Harmonization

Efforts to assess forest ecosystem carbon stocks, biodiversity, and fire hazards have spurred the need for comprehensive assessments of forest ecosystem dead wood (DW) components around the world. Currently, information regarding the prevalence, status, and methods of DW inventories occurring in the world’s forested landscapes is scattered. The goal of this study is to describe the status, DW components measured, sample methods employed, and DW component thresholds used by national forest inventories that currently inventory DW around the world. Study results indicate that most countries do not inventory forest DW. Globally, we estimate that about 13% of countries inventory DW using a diversity of sample methods and DW component definitions. A common feature among DW inventories was that most countries had only just begun DW inventories and employ very low sample intensities. There are major hurdles to harmonizing national forest inventories of DW: differences in population definitions, lack of clarity on sample protocols/estimation procedures, and sparse availability of inventory data/reports. Increasing database/estimation flexibility, developing common dimensional thresholds of DW components, publishing inventory procedures/protocols, releasing inventory data/reports to international peer review, and increasing communication (e.g., workshops) among countries inventorying DW are suggestions forwarded by this study to increase DW inventory harmonization.

Reconstructed forest age structure in Europe 1950–2010

Forest age structure is an important factor for understanding the history of forests, their current functioning and their future development. It is, for instance, crucial information to be able to assess sustainable harvesting potentials. Furthermore, since the development of growing stock and increment, and thus the patterns of net carbon exchange, are strongly affected by the age of the forest, information about the age structure is needed to understand the temporal variability of the greenhouse gas budgets and potential contributions of forest management (i.e. their additionality) to long-term removal of carbon from the atmosphere. European forests have changed drastically in recent decades, but to date no European level compilation of historical forest age structure data is available. In this study, country level historical age-class data was combined with a backcasting method to reconstruct the age-class structure for 25 European countries from 1950 to 2010 (total forest area in 2010: 118.3 million ha). Based on the results, dynamic maps of forest age-class distributions on 0.25° × 0.25° grid were generated, and the change in the forest age structure was analysed. Results show that the share of old forests (>100 years) has decreased from 26% in 1950 to 17% in 2010, and the mean age over the studied area decreased from 67 to 60 years. However, when looking at the change of the mean age from 1950 to 2010 at country level, there is a large variation between the countries. We discuss implications of the results and argue that the development of forest age structure contributed less than previously thought to the carbon sink in European forests from 1950 onwards.

Assessing bundles of ecosystem services from regional to landscape scale: insights from the French Alps

Summary 1. Assessments of ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity (hereafter ecological parameters) provide a comprehensive view of the links between landscapes, ecosystem functioning and human well-being. The investigation of consistent associations between ecological parameters, called bundles, and of their links to landscape composition and structure is essential to inform management and policy, yet it is still in its infancy. 2. We mapped over the French Alps an unprecedented array of 18 ecological parameters (16 ES and two biodiversity parameters) and explored their co-occurrence patterns underpinning the supply of multiple ecosystem services in landscapes. We followed a three-step analytical framework to i) detect the ES and biodiversity associations relevant at regional scale, ii) identify the clusters supplying consistent bundles of ES at subregional scale and iii) explore the links between landscape heterogeneity and ecological parameter associations at landscape scale. 3. We used successive correlation coefficients, overlap values and self-organizing maps to characterize ecological bundles specific to given land cover types and geographical areas of varying biophysical characteristics and human uses at nested scales from regional to local. 4. The joint analysis of land cover richness and ES gamma diversity demonstrated that local landscape heterogeneity alone did not imply compatibility across multiple ecosystem services, as some homogeneous landscape could supply multiple ecosystem services. 5. Synthesis and applications. Bundles of ecosystem services and biodiversity parameters are shaped by the joint effects of biophysical characteristics and of human history. Due to spatial congruence and to underlying functional interdependencies, ecological parameters should be managed as bundles even when management targets specific objectives. Moreover, depending on the abiotic context, the supply of multiple ecosystem services can arise either from deliberate management in homogeneous landscapes or from spatial heterogeneity.

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

Hotspots of land use change in Europe

Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatially-explicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990–2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes. We found a clear East–West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990–2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.

Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions.

A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways.

Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.

Indicators for assessing the environmental impacts of land use change across Europe

Much progress has been made in understanding future trend development over the last years. Governments and international bodies are increasingly attempting to assess ex-ante the impact of their policy proposals. In the SENSOR project, environmental sustainability is assessed by answering a set of policy relevant questions likely to affect goods and services provided by land. The answer is complex and the assessment of future options is very sensitive to scale, how far ahead in time is being considered, and whether the assessment addresses local, regional or global concerns. The relationships between components of land use and the response of environmental indicators are not necessarily linear and assessing impacts at a European scale implies to use multi-scale sources of data of uneven quality across countries, which in turn creates constraints when interpreting the results at different spatial levels.