Pieter P. Tans

A Large Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial CO2 Sink Indicated by the 13C/12C Ratio of Atmospheric CO2

Measurements of the concentrations and carbon-13/carbon-12 isotope ratios of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be used to quantify the net removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the oceans and terrestrial plants. A study of weekly samples from a global network of 43 sites defined the latitudinal and temporal patterns of the two carbon sinks. A strong terrestrial biospheric sink was found in the temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in 1992 and 1993, the magnitude of which is roughly half that of the global fossil fuel burning emissions for those years. The challenge now is to identify those processes that would cause the terrestrial biosphere to absorb carbon dioxide in such large quantities.

Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory global air sampling network

The distribution and variations of atmospheric CO2 from 1981 to 1992 were determined by measuring CO2 mixing ratios in samples collected weekly at a cooperative global air sampling network. The results constitute the most geographically extensive, carefully calibrated, internally consistent CO2 data set available. Analysis of the data reveals that the global CO2 growth rate has declined from a peak of approximately 2.5 ppm/yr in 1987-1988 to approximately 0.6 ppm/yr in 1992. In 1992 we find no increase in atmospheric CO2 from 30 deg to 90 deg N. Variations in fossil fuel CO2 emissions cannot explain this result. The north pole-south pole CO2 difference increased from approximately 3 ppm during 1981-1987 to approximately 4 ppm during 1988-1991. In 1992 the difference was again approximately 3 ppm. A two-dimensional model analysis of the data indicates that the low CO2 growth rate in 1992 is mainly due to an increase in the northern hemisphere CO2 sink from 3.9 Gt C/yr in 1991 to 5.0 Gt C/yr in 1992. The increase in the north pole-south pole CO2 difference appears to result from an increase in the southern hemisphere CO2 sink from approximately 0.5 to approximately 1.5 Gt C/yr.

Weak Northern and Strong Tropical Land Carbon Uptake from Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric CO2

Measurements of midday vertical atmospheric CO2 distributions reveal annual-mean vertical CO2 gradients that are inconsistent with atmospheric models that estimate a large transfer of terrestrial carbon from tropical to northern latitudes. The three models that most closely reproduce the observed annual-mean vertical CO2 gradients estimate weaker northern uptake of –1.5 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year–1) and weaker tropical emission of +0.1 Pg C year–1 compared with previous consensus estimates of –2.4 and +1.8 Pg C year–1, respectively. This suggests that northern terrestrial uptake of industrial CO2 emissions plays a smaller role than previously thought and that, after subtracting land-use emissions, tropical ecosystems may currently be strong sinks for CO2.

Methane Leaks from North American Natural Gas Systems

Methane emissions from U.S. and Canadian natural gas systems appear larger than official estimates. Natural gas (NG) is a potential “bridge fuel” during transition to a decarbonized energy system: It emits less carbon dioxide during combustion than other fossil fuels and can be used in many industries. However, because of the high global warming potential of methane (CH4, the major component of NG), climate benefits from NG use depend on system leakage rates. Some recent estimates of leakage have challenged the benefits of switching from coal to NG, a large near-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction opportunity (1–3). Also, global atmospheric CH4 concentrations are on the rise, with the causes still poorly understood (4).

Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by δ13C measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network

Using •13C measurements in atmospheric CO 2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of •13C measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. The network included 40 sites in 1992 and constitutes the most extensive data set available. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and •13C observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. New features of the method include a detailed calculation of the isotopic disequilibrium of the terrestrial biosphere from global runs of the CENTURY soil model. Also, the discrimination against •3C by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the SiB biosphere model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10 •5 gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.1 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15oN absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10oS and 10oN were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20oS, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35oN and 65oN were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30oN) appear to be a net source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30oS-equator).

Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record

Atmospheric transport models are used to constrain sources and sinks of carbon dioxide by requiring that the modeled spatial and temporal concentration patterns are consistent with the observations. Serious obstacles to this approach are the sparsity of sampling sites and the lack of temporal continuity among observations at different locations. A procedure is presented that attempts to extend the knowledge gained during a limited period of measurements beyond the period itself resulting in records containing measurement data and extrapolated and interpolated values. From limited measurements we can define trace gas climatologies that describe average seasonal cycles, trends, and changes in trends at individual sampling sites. A comparison of the site climatologies with a reference defined over a much longer period of time constitutes the framework used in the development of the data extension procedure. Two extension methods are described. The benchmark trend method uses a deseasonalized long-term trend from a single site as a reference to individual site climatologies. The latitude reference method utilizes measurements from many sites in constructing a reference to the climatologies. Both methods are evaluated and the advantages and limitations of each are discussed. Data extension is not based on any atmospheric models but entirely on the data themselves. The methods described here are relatively straightforward and reproducible and result in extended records that are model independent. The cooperative air sampling network maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, provides a test bed for the development of the data extension method; we intend to integrate and extend CO2 measurement records from other laboratories providing a globally consistent atmospheric CO2 database to the modeling community.

RECENT TRENDS IN THE C-13-C-12 RATIO OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE

THE 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide has decreased by approximately 0.6‰ over 22 yr according to new direct measurements reported here. Our results offer a way of establishing whether 13C/12C ratios of tree rings1–6 are representative of atmospheric 13CO2 variations. We have carried out both isotopic (at Groningen) and concentration (at La Jolla) measurements of atmospheric CO2 on air samples obtained during 1977 and 1978 at three widely spaced locations: La Jolla, California (33°N, 117°W), Fanning Island (4°N, 159°W) and the South Pole. Sampling, instrumental, and analytical procedures closely matched a similar study carried out 22 yr earlier by Keeling7,8.

Oceanic 13C/12C observations: A new window on ocean CO2 uptake

Equations are developed describing the rate of change of carbon isotopic ratios in the atmosphere and oceans in terms of δ13C quantities. The equations enable one to perform calculations directly with δ and ϵ quantities commonly reported in the literature. The main cause of the change occurring today is the combustion of fossil fuel carbon with lower δ13C values. The course of this isotopic anomaly in atmosphere and oceans can provide new constraints on the carbon budgets of these reservoirs. Recently published δ13C isotopic data of total inorganic carbon in the oceans [Quay et al., 1992] appear to lead to incompatible results with respect to the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 by the oceans if two different approaches to the data are taken. Consideration of the air-sea isotopic disequilibrium leads to an uptake estimate of only a few tenths of a gigaton C (Gt, for 1015 g) per year, whereas the apparent change in the ocean δ13C inventory leads to an estimate of more than 2 Gt C yr−1. Both results are very uncertain with presently available data. The isotopic ratio has the advantage that the signal-to-noise ratio for the measurement of the uptake of the isotopic signal by the oceans is better than for the uptake of total carbon, The drawback is that isotopic exchange with carbon reservoirs that are difficult to characterize introduces uncertainty into the isotopic budget. The accuracy requirements for the measurements are high, demanding careful standardization at all stages.

Mixing ratios of carbon monoxide in the troposphere

Carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratios were measured in air samples collected weekly at eight locations. The air was collected as part of the CMDL/NOAA cooperative flask sampling program (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, formerly Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change, Air Resources Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) at Point Barrow, Alaska (71°N), Niwot Ridge, Colorado (40°N), Mauna Loa and Cape Kumakahi, Hawaii (19°N), Guam, Marianas Islands (13°N), Christmas Island (2°N), Ascension Island (8°S) and American Samoa (14°S). Half-liter or 3-L glass flasks fitted with glass piston stopcocks holding teflon O rings were used for sample collection. CO levels were determined within several weeks of collection using gas chromatography followed by mercuric oxide reduction detection, and mixing ratios were referenced against the CMDL/NOAA carbon monoxide standard scale. During the period of study (mid-1988 through December 1990) CO levels were greatest in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere (mean mixing ratio from January 1989 to December 1990 at Point Barrow was approximately 154 ppb) and decreased towards the south (mean mixing ratio at Samoa over a similar period was 65 ppb). Mixing ratios varied seasonally, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle was greatest in the north and decreased to the south. Carbon monoxide levels were affected by both local and regional scale processes. The difference in CO levels between northern and southern latitudes also varied seasonally. The greatest difference in CO mixing ratios between Barrow and Samoa was observed during the northern winter (about 150 ppb). The smallest difference, 40 ppb, occurred during the austral winter. The annually averaged CO difference between 71°N and 14°S was approximately 90 ppb in both 1989 and 1990; the annually averaged interhemispheric gradient from 71°N to 41°S is estimated as approximately 95 ppb.

Influence of El Niño on the equatorial Pacific contribution toatmospheric CO2 accumulation

The equatorial oceans are the dominant oceanic source of CO2 to the atmosphere, annually amounting to a net flux of 0.7–1.5 Pg (10 15 g) of carbon, up to 72% of which emanates from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Limited observations indicate that the size of the equatorial Pacific source is significantly influenced by El Niño events, but the effect has not been well quantified. Here we report spring and autumn multiannual measurements of the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific region. During the 1991–94 El Niño period, the derived net annual sea-to-air flux of CO2 was 0.3 Pg C from autumn 1991 to autumn 1992, 0.6 Pg C in 1993, and 0.7 Pg C in 1994. These annual fluxes are 30–80% of that of 1996, a non-El-Niño year. The total reduction of the regional sea-to-air CO2 flux during the 1991–94 El Niño period is estimated to account for up to one-third of the atmospheric anomaly (the difference between the annual and long-term-average increases in global atmospheric CO2 content) observed over the same period.