Pieter Serneels

The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia

This paper investigates the nature of unemployment among young men in urban Ethiopia and finds that it is concentrated among relatively well-educated first-time job seekers who aspire to a public sector job and spend on average close to four years in unemployment. This is consistent with a segmented labor market model where youngsters queue in unemployment for a good job, as confirmed by an empirical test of the theoretical prediction. We observe a negative (causal) relationship between household welfare and both the incidence and duration of unemployment, indicating that unemployment is concentrated among the relatively worse off urban households, which from a national perspective represent the middle classes, and find suggestive evidence that part of this effect is due to malnutrition during childhood. Job search through social networks is only effective after one has become unemployed, suggesting that networks provide insurance only after exposure to the risk.

The Impact of Armed Conflict on Economic Performance: Evidence from Rwanda

Important gaps remain in the understanding of the economic consequences of civil war. Focusing on the conflict in Rwanda in the early 1990s, and using micro data, this article finds that households and localities that experienced more intense conflict are lagging behind in terms of consumption six years after the conflict, a finding that is robust to taking into account the endogeneity of violence. Significantly different returns to land and labor are observed between zones that experienced low- and high-intensity conflict which is consistent with the ongoing recovery. Distinguishing between civil war and genocide, the findings also provide evidence that these returns, and by implication the process of recovery, depend on the form of violence.

Does employment generation really matter for poverty reduction

This paper analyzes how the employment/productivity profile of growth and its sectoral pattern are correlated with poverty reduction. The authors use a sample of 104 short-run growth spells in developing countries, between 1980 and 2001. They also identify some conditions of the labor market and the economic environment that are associated with employment-intensive growth or specific sectoral growth. The results show that, in the short run, although the aggregate employment-rate intensity of growth does not matter for poverty reduction any more than the aggregate productivity intensity of growth, the sectoral pattern of employment growth and productivity growth is important. Employment-intensive growth in the secondary sector is associated with decreases in poverty, while employment-intensive growth in agriculture is correlated with poverty increases. Similarly, productivity-intensive growth in agriculture is associated with decreases in poverty. Although the study does not address causality, coincidence of these phenomena in this large sample of heterogeneous countries and periods suggests that, in the short run, the sectoral productivity and employment pattern of growth may have important implications for poverty alleviation. Therefore, policies for reducing poverty should not overlook the sectoral productivity and employment implications of different growth policies.

Diversity in Career Preferences of Future Health Workers in Rwanda : Where, Why, and for How Much?

The Government of Rwanda has identified human resources for health as one of its Policy priorities. This study aims to contribute to building a better understanding of health worker choice and behavior, and to improve evidence based policies. The work was undertaken by The Ministry of Health in a collaborative effort with the World Bank, building on the results of qualitative pre research, and is the first wave of a cohort survey with medical and nursing students. In comparison with other African countries, migration of health workers abroad may be less of a problem for Rwanda. The study finds that 80 percent of nursing and medical students report to have no intention to migrate abroad in the coming five years. Using a contingent valuation method to measure the reservation wage to migrate, we find that at the current public sector starting salary more than half the students will choose a job in Kigali instead of going abroad. But there is considerable heterogeneity in the willingness to work abroad. For example, students who are married or engaged are less likely to move abroad. Younger medical students require a higher average salary to stay in Rwanda compared to older students. Although Rwanda has a relatively low HIV prevalence compared to other African countries, there are problems with attitudes to HIV/AIDS, although the attitudes differ greatly between students, with medical students consistently more positive than nurses. Medical students score higher than nurses on medical knowledge related to HIV/AIDS, have higher levels of self reported knowledge on AIDS, and are also more familiar with HIV. Health students are generally averse to taking up work in high HIV prevalence areas but preferences vary widely, as is reflected in the wide span of reservation wages to accept a job in a high HIV prevalence area. Students are less willing to work in high HIV prevalence areas than to take up rural service.

Productivity and health : alternative productivity estimates using physical activity

This paper investigates an alternative proxy for individual worker productivity in physical work settings: a direct measure of physical activity using an accelerometer. First, the paper compares worker labor outcomes, such as labor supply and daily productivity obtained from firm personnel data, with physical activity; they are strongly related. Second, the paper investigates the effect of a health intervention on physical activity, using a temporally randomized offer of malaria testing and treatment. Workers who are offered this program reallocate time from lower intensity activities in favor of higher intensity activities when they work.