Pieter W. G. Bots

Comparison of Frameworks for Analyzing Social-ecological Systems

In this paper we compare 10 established frameworks for analyzing social-ecological systems. We limited ourselves to frameworks that were explicitly designed to be used by a wider community of researchers and practitioners. Although all these frameworks seem to have emerged from the need for concepts that permit structured, interdisciplinary reasoning about complex problems in social-ecological systems, they differ significantly with respect to contextual and structural criteria, such as conceptualization of the ecological and social systems and their interrelation. It appears that three main criteria suffice to produce a classification of frameworks that may be used as a decision tree when choosing a framework for analysis. These criteria are (i) whether a framework conceptualizes the relationship between the social and ecological systems as being uni- or bidirectional; (ii) whether it takes an anthropocentric or an ecocentric perspective on the ecological system; and (iii) whether it is an action-oriented or an analysis-oriented framework.

Perspectives on Policy Analysis: A Framework for Understanding and Design

As made clear by the discussion in Chap. 2, policy analysis is a multifaceted field in which a variety of different activities and ambitions have found a place. Some policy analysts conduct quantitative or qualitative research, while others reconstruct and analyze political discourse or set up citizen fora.

Application of the SES Framework for Model-based Analysis of the Dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems

Social-ecological systems (SES) are dynamic systems that continuously change in response to internal or external pressures. A better understanding of the interactions of the social and ecological systems that drive those dynamics is crucial for the development of sustainable management strategies. Dynamic models can serve as tools to explore social-ecological interactions; however, the complexity of the studied systems and the need to integrate knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines pose considerable challenges for their development. We assess the potential of Ostroms general SES framework (SESF) to guide a systematic and transparent process of model development in light of these difficulties. We develop a stepwise procedure for applying SESF to identify variables and their relationships relevant for an analysis of the SES. In doing so we demonstrate how the hierarchy of concepts in SESF and the identification of social-ecological processes using the newly introduced process relationships can help to unpack the system in a systematic and transparent way. We test the procedure by applying it to develop a dynamic model of decision making in the management of recreational fisheries. The added value of the common framework lies in the guidance it provides for (1) a structured approach to identifying major variables and the level of detail needed, and (2) a procedure that enhances model transparency by making explicit underlying assumptions and choices made when selecting variables and their interactions as well as the theories or empirical evidence on which they are based. Both aspects are of great relevance when dealing with the complexity of SES and integrating conceptual backgrounds from different disciplines. We discuss the advantages and difficulties of the application of SESF for model development, and contribute to its further refinement.

MAIA: a Framework for Developing Agent-Based Social Simulations

In this paper we introduce and motivate a conceptualization framework for agent-based social simulation, MAIA: Modelling Agent systems based on Institutional Analysis. The MAIA framework is based on Ostroms Institutional Analysis and Development framework, and provides an extensive set of modelling concepts that is rich enough to capture a large range of complex social phenomena. Developing advanced agent-based models requires substantial experience and knowledge of software development knowledge and skills. MAIA has been developed to help modellers who are unfamiliar with software development to conceptualize and implement agent-based models. It provides the foundation for a conceptualization procedure that guides modellers to adequately capture, analyse, and understand the domain of application, and helps them report explicitly on the motivations behind modelling choices. A web-based application supports conceptualization with MAIA, and outputs an XML file which is used to generate Java code for an executable simulation.

Designing multi-criteria decision analysis processes for priority setting in health policy

Public health policymaking has far reaching impacts on society. A sound policymaking process should provide for thorough assessment, followed by a careful balancing of scientific evidence and policy goals. This paper reports on two instances of a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach to priority setting as part of public health policymaking in the Netherlands. The first case describes the process of locating the most important health problems by ranking (clusters of) diseases in terms of their impact on public health. The second case describes the process of setting an agenda for efficiency improvements in the Dutch health care sector. The article focuses on the ways in which these processes were designed and implemented, and on the specific group MCDA support technology that was used. The similarities and differences in process design in the two cases are related to their respective outcomes, revealing the strengths and weaknesses of the approach. Copyright

Enhancing the Ostrom social-ecological system framework through formalization

Frameworks play an important role in analyzing social-ecological systems (SESs) because they provide shared concepts and variables that enable comparison between and accumulation of knowledge across multiple cases. One prominent SES framework focusing on local resource use has been developed by Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues. This framework is an extensive multi-tier collection of concepts and variables that have demonstrated relevance for explaining outcomes in a large number of case studies in the context of fishery, water, and forestry common-pool resources. The further development of this framework has raised a number of issues related to the formal relationships between the large number of concepts and variables involved. In particular, issues related to criteria for ordering the concepts into tiers, adding new concepts, defining outcomes metrics, and representing dynamics in the framework have been identified. We address these issues by applying methods from research fields that study formal relationships between concepts such as domain-specific languages, knowledge representation, and software engineering. We find that SES frameworks could include the following seven formal components: variables, concepts, attribution relationships, subsumption relationships, process relationships, aggregation relationships, and evaluation metrics. Applying these components to the Ostrom framework and a case study of recreational fishery, we find that they provide clear criteria for structuring concepts into tiers, defining outcome metrics, and representing dynamics. The components identified are generic, and the insights gained from this exercise may also be beneficial for the development of other SES frameworks.

Automatic pattern detection in stakeholder networks

The values and opinions of the stakeholders involved in a decision-making process are the key to its outcome. Reflection on how stakeholders perceive a situation, and on the consequences of these perceptions for the decision outcome is an intellectually demanding exercise. To support analysis, we have developed a conceptual modeling tool called DANA (Dynamic Actor Network Analysis). The modeling language is based on the policy network paradigm and embodies concepts from cognitive mapping and linguistic approaches to approximate reasoning. In this paper, we investigate how certain interesting properties of stakeholder networks modeled with DANA can be determined algorithmically. Automatic detection of the factors most relevant to a policy situation, and of disagreement and conflict among stakeholders may help the analyst in focusing her analysis.

Functional design of games to support natural resource management policy development

This article works toward a conceptual framework for designing games to support policy development for managing natural resources. The point of departure for this framework is a typology for functions of games in support of policy. This typology consists of six classes of functions of a policy game: research and analyze policy contexts as systems, design and recommend alternative solutions to a policy problem, provide advice to a client on what strategy to follow in the policy process, mediate between di ferent stakeholders, democratize policy development by actively bringing in stakeholder views, and clarify the values and arguments pertinent to the policy discourse. These functions are illustrated using specific examples of games that have been used in the domain of natural resource management (NRM). The framework discussed in this article may help game designers to match specific game properties (players, roles, rewards, and representations of the NRM context) with the intended function of the game in the policy-development process.

Analysis of Multi-Actor Policy Contexts Using Perception Graphs

Policy making is a multi-actor process: it involves a variety of actors, each trying to further their own interests. How these actors decide and act largely depends on the way they perceive the policy problem. This paper describes dynamic actor network analysis (DANA), a graph-based method/tool to analyze a policy context by modeling how actors view a policy issue. Each actor view is modeled as a perception graph, a type of causal map that represents the (probabilistic) relations between goals, policy actions and external influences. Cross-comparison of these perception graphs reveals properties of the multi-actor policy network, such as factor relevance, resource dependency, conflict, and possible tradeoffs. Although DANA models technically have the potential for simulating policy scenarios, some interesting methodological problems remain.

Design in socio-technical system development: three angles in a common framework

Large-scale socio-technical systems, such as infrastructures for transport, energy and telecommunication, are not designed and then constructed according to plan. Rather, they develop over a long period of time as a result of countless changes. Nonetheless, most of these changes have been produced by design. Three types of designs - system design, decision process design, and institutional design - are identified as pertinent to large-scale socio-technical systems, and characterised by applying a generic conceptual framework to a fictitious case. This characterisation provides some insights into the variety of design problems that must be addressed in the context of socio-technical system development.