Pietro Garibaldi

The Employment Effects of Severance Payments with Wage Rigidities

Firing costs due to employment protection legislation have two separate dimensions: a transfer from the firm to the worker to be laid off and a tax paid outside the firm-worker pair. We document that quantitatively transfers are a much larger component than taxes. Nevertheless, to avoid the ‘bonding critique’ most of the existing literature overlooks the transfer component by making the implicit assumption that, in the presence of wage rigidity, mandatory severance payments have the same real effects as firing taxes. This Paper shows, in the context of a search model with insider and outsider workers, that this presumption is in general misplaced: the impact of severance payments on unemployment is qualitatively different from that of firing taxes, and it varies according to the bite of the wage rigidity. When the wage rigidity is endogenously determined by a centralized monopoly union of insiders, severance payments are either neutral or they increase unemployment, depending on the union’s coverage of outsiders’ contracts. This prediction finds empirical support in a panel dataset of OECD countries.

Education and Training in Europe

While Europe is certainly one of the richest and most educated areas of the world, some of the challenges faced by the old continent are staggering: low economic growth, structural difficulties in the labour market, and increasing international competition. Politicians and policymakers may advocate different means of overcoming the potential economic decline of Europe, but most agree that Europe needs to strengthen human capital, its ultimate competitive advantage in the world economy. This book looks at the accumulation of human capital from two perspectives, first through formal education and then professional training. It provides a useful summary of the key characteristics of education and training in Europe and also asks key questions about the fundamental problems with the current educational and training systems. More importantly, the book goes on to discuss which policies are necessary to make existing education and training systems more efficient, while also making higher skills available to a wider range of people. Contributors to this volume - Andrea Bassanini, OECD and EPEE-University of Paris XIII Giuseppe Bertola, University of Turin Alison Booth, Australian National University and University of Essex Giorgio Brunello, University of Padua Maria De Paola, Calabria University Juan J. Dolado, Universidad Carlos III Peter Fredriksson, Uppsala University Pietro Garibaldi, Fondazione Rodolfo DeBenedetti and University of Turin Daniel Gros, Centre for European Policy Studies Ana Lamo, European Central Bank Edwin Leuven, University of Amsterdam and CREST John Martin, OECD Julian Messina, European Central Bank Giovanni Peri, University of California, Davis Steve Pischke, London School of Economics Etienne Wasmer, Universite du Quebec a Montreal

What Moves Capital to Transition Economies

Between 1991 and 1999, capital flows to 25 transition economies in Europe and the former Soviet Union differed widely in terms of overall levels and the share and composition of private flows. With some exceptions (notably Russia), the main form of private inflows was foreign direct investment. Portfolio investment was volatile and concentrated in a handful of countries. Regressions show that direct investment can be well explained in terms of economic fundamentals, whereas the presence of a financial market infrastructure and a property-rights indicator are the only explanatory variables that seem to have had a robust effect on portfolio investment.

Employment Protection Legislation and the Size of Firms

The existing literature ignores the fact that in most European countries the strictness of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) varies across the firm size distribution. In Italy firms are obliged to rehire an unfairly dismissed worker only if they employ more than 15 employees. Theoretically, the paper solves a baseline model of EPL with threshold effects, and shows that firms close to the threshold are characterized by an increase in inaction and by a reluctance to grow. Empirically, the paper estimates transition probability matrices on firm level employment using a longitudinal data set based on Italian Social Security (INPS) records, and finds two results. First, firms close to the 15 employees threshold experience an increase in persistence of 1.5 percent with respect to a baseline statistical model. Second, firms with 15 employees are more likely to move backward than upward. Finally, the paper tests the effect of a 1990 reform which tightened the regulation on individual dismissal only for small firms. It finds that the persistence of small firms relative to large firms increased significantly. Overall, these threshold effects are significant and robust, but quantitatively small.

Do Larger Severance Payments Increase Individual Job Duration

This Paper analyses the effect of severance payments on the probability of separation at given tenure, wages and other individual and firm characteristics. It studies a mandatory deferred wage scheme of the Italian labour market (Trattamento di Fine Rapporto, TFR). Deferred wages increase job duration if two conditions hold: wages are rigidly set outside the employer-employee relationship, and past provisions are accumulated at interest rates that are below market rates. Under such circumstances, workers who withdraw from their accumulated stock of unpaid wages should experience, at given tenure, a subsequent increase in the probability of separation. This prediction appears empirically robust and quantitatively sizeable. A withdraw of 60% of the TFR stock (the median observed withdraw) increases the instantaneous hazard rate by almost 20%. In other words, an individual with at least ten years of tenure that experiences an early withdrawal increases his/her hazard rate from 10% to about 12%. A variety of robustness tests support these results.

Deconstructing Job Creation

This paper studies net employment growth across 21 OECD economies in 1980-97, focusing on experiences within the European Union. It finds that sectoral effects can only partially account for differences in job creation. By contrast, it shows that a policy package including low taxation and flexible employment protection legislation is associated with high job creation and can account for most of the observed differences. The Netherlands’ success is largely accounted for by the creation of part-time jobs for women aged 25-49 in the services sector, but in most EU countries the substitution of part-time jobs for full-time jobs is considerable.

Workers and Firms Sorting into Temporary Jobs

The liberalization of fixed term contracts in Europe has led to a two tier regime, with a growing share of jobs covered by temporary contracts. The paper proposes a matching model with direct search in which temporary and permanent jobs coexist in a long run equilibrium. When temporary contracts are allowed, firms are willing to open permanent jobs in as much as their job filling rate is faster than that of temporary jobs. From the labour demand standpoint, a simple trade-off emerges between an ex-ante job filling rate and ex-post flexible dismissal rate. From the labor supply standpoint, a trade-off emerges between an ex-ante lower job finding rate and ex-post larger retention rate. The model features a natural sorting of firms and workers into permanent and temporary jobs. It is also consistent with the observation that workers hired on a permanent contract receive more training. The paper shows that the transition from a rigid to a two a tier regime system is always associated with a transitory fall in unemployment.

The Lighthouse Effect and Beyond

A large body of empirical literature indicates that, contrary to predictions from economic theory, wages in the informal sector increase after a minimum wage hike. This phenomenon was so far explained as a byproduct of a signal (a lighthouse) conveyed by statutory minima to wage setting in the informal sector. A simple matching model shows that an increase in wages in the informal sector may also be induced by significant sorting and composition effects between the formal and the shadow sectors in the aftermath of the increase in the minimum wage. Using data on Brazil, we find that sorting accounts for at least one third of the increase in average wages in the informal sector after a minimum wage hike. This contribution of endogenous sorting to wage dynamics in the informal sector is also increasing over time.

Bank Lending and Interest Rate Changes in a Dynamic Matching Model

This paper presents theory and evidence on the dynamic relationship between aggregate bank lending and interest rate changes. Theoretically, it proposes and solves a stochastic matching model where credit expansion and contraction are time consuming. It shows that the response of bank lending to changes in money market rates is likely to be asymmetric and depends crucially on two structural parameters: the speed at which new loans become available, and the speed at which banks recall existing loans. Empirically, it provides evidence that bank lending in Mexico and the United States responds asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks in money market rates.

The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Job Creation and Destruction

This paper presents theory and evidence on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on job creation and job destruction. First, it solves a dynamic matching model and it shows how interest rate changes result in an asymmetric response of job creation and destruction. Second, it looks at how changes in the federal fund rate affect gross job flows in the U.S. manufacturing industry, and it finds evidence of asymmetry. Tight policy increases job destruction and reduces net employment changes. Conversely, easy policy appears ineffective in stimulating job creation.