Pinki Mondal

Winter crop sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability in central India

India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. Here, we examined the sensitivity of winter cropping systems to inter-annual climate variability in a local market and subsistence-based agricultural system in central India, a data-rich validation site, in order to identify the climate parameters to which winter crops – mainly wheat and pulses in this region – might be sensitive in the future. We used satellite time-series data to quantify inter-annual variability in multiple climate parameters and in winter crop cover, agricultural census data to quantify irrigation, and field observations to identify locations for specific crop types. We developed three mixed-effect models (250 m to 1 km scale) to identify correlations between crop cover (wheat and pulses) and twenty-two climate and environmental parameters for 2001-2013. We find that winter daytime mean temperature (November–January) is the most significant factor affecting winter crops, irrespective of crop type, and is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers in similar landscapes would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts and heat-tolerant winter crop varieties.

Landsat-Derived Estimates of Mangrove Extents in the Sierra Leone Coastal Landscape Complex during 1990–2016

This study provides the first assessment of decadal changes in mangrove extents in Sierra Leone. While significant advances have been made in mangrove mapping using remote sensing, no study has documented long-term changes in mangrove extents in Sierra Leone—one of the most vulnerable countries in West Africa. Such understanding is critical for devising regional management strategies that can support local livelihoods. We utilize multi-date Landsat data and cloud computational techniques to quantify spatiotemporal changes in land cover, with focus on mangrove ecosystems, for 1990–2016 along the coast of Sierra Leone. We specifically focus on four estuaries—Scarcies, Sierra Leone, Yawri Bay, and Sherbro. We relied on the k-means approach for an unsupervised classification, and validated the classified map from 2016 using ground truth data collected from Sentinel-2 and high-resolution images and during field research (accuracy: 95%). Our findings indicate that the Scarcies river estuary witnessed the greatest mangrove loss since 1990 (45%), while the Sierra Leone river estuary experienced mangrove gain over the last 26 years (22%). Overall, the Sierra Leone coast lost 25% of its mangroves between 1990 and 2016, with the lowest coverage in 2000, during the period of civil war (1991–2002). However, natural mangrove dynamics, as supported by field observations, indicate the potential for regeneration and sustainability under carefully constructed management strategies.

Peopled Parks: Forest Change in India’s Protected Landscapes

Understanding forest change in the densely populated, forested landscapes of India poses a challenge. Although India has an established approach toward conservation that is focused on protected areas, the long history of human settlement, high population density, and human use of forests and the diversity of biophysical, ecological, social, and institutional conditions create a challenging context for forest protection. In this chapter, we synthesize information from a number of case studies of land-use/land-cover change in India, and examine four case studies in detail to provide insights into the drivers of forest clearing and regrowth in peopled parks. We find that protected areas are an important influence on the rural Indian landscape and have been reasonably successful in maintaining forest cover within their core areas. There is, however, considerable forest change taking place at the periphery of protected areas, with substantial clearing near settlements and accessible locations. In urbanizing landscapes, protected areas continue to play a dominant role, but forest availability has a major influence on vegetation change, with the human footprint expanding to cover distant, hitherto inaccessible areas. This has extremely worrisome implications for the future of forests in an increasingly urbanizing country that represents the second most populous nation in the world.