Piotr Ciżkowicz

The determinants of regional exports in Poland – a panel data analysis

The purpose of this article is to explain the strong diversification in the volume and structure of exports in Polish regions, using a set of potential determinants originating from different foreign trade theories used in country level studies. Two sets of panel models of exports are estimated for 16 regions of Poland in the years 1999–2008. Model I shows that regional export performance is positively dependent on labour productivity, share of foreign-owned companies in employment, education level of population, location in the countrys border region and access to the sea, and negatively on the importance of agriculture in the regions economy and labour costs. Model II indicates that exports of agricultural and food products are positively correlated with the importance of agriculture, labour productivity in agriculture and the economy of the region as a whole, availability of employees with an appropriate level of practical skills and access to the sea, and negatively with population density and location in the countrys border region. Growth of this type of export is important for improvement of living conditions in many underdeveloped regions of Poland.

Heterogeneous Determinants of Local Unemployment in Poland

We identify determinants of large disparities in local unemployment rates in Poland using panel data on NUTS-4 level (poviats). We find that the disparities are linked to local demographics, education and sectoral employment composition rather than to local demand factors. However, the impact of determinants is not homogenous across poviats. Where unemployment is low or income per capita is high, unemployment does not depend on the late working-aged share in the population but does depend relatively stronger on the share of early working-aged. Where unemployment is high or income per capita is low, unemployment does not depend on education attainment and is relatively less responsive to investment fluctuations. Where small farms are present, they are partial absorbers of workers laid off due to investment fluctuations.

Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Impulses in the EU New Member States

We identify fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States using four different methods and apply econometric panel data techniques to determine what is the response of the output and its components to those impulses. We also directly test the effects of fiscal impulses on labour costs and housholds’ expectations. The results confirm that the composition of impulses matters for output and its components’ response. Notably, we find evidence that investment and export growth accelerates after fiscal adjustment and decelerates after fiscal stimulus when the impulses are expenditure-based. In turn, private consumption seems not to respond to fiscal impulses regardless of their size. The analysis confirms that expenditure-based fiscal adjustments enhance wage moderation and thereby competitiveness of domestic enterprises, while expenditure-based fiscal stimuli weaken it. By contrast, we do not find evidence that fiscal impulses have an effect on households’ confidence.

The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: What Do Central Banks Not Include in Their Models? (Skutki Niekonwencjonalnej Polityki Pieniężnej: Czego Banki Centralne Nie Uwzględniają W Swoich Modelach?)

In 2009, for the first time since the end of World War II, the world economy shrank. This resulted from the economic downturn in highly developed countries and surprised most economists. According to the IMF forecast published in spring 2008, GDP growth in these countries was expected to accelerate from 1.3% in 2008 to 3.8%. In fact, the growth rate was 0.1% in 2008 and minus 3.7% in 2009 (White, 2012). Another surprise was the subsequent poor performance rates reported by the major economies, i.e. the United States and the Eurozone. Five years after the acute phase of the global financial crisis their growth rates have not returned to pre-crisis levels. In a response to the outbreak of the global crisis, the main central banks, namely the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), resolved to take some unconventional actions: (i) reducing interest rates to close to zero, (ii) committing to keep interest rates that low for a long time, (iii) introducing quantitative easing on a large scale. In this paper, the authors attempt to aswer what were the costs of the unconventional monetary policy adopted by Fed and EBC, as well as what effects it had on restructuring process, uncertainty, and the use of credit.