Pippa Scott

Efficacy of pneumococcal vaccination in adults: a meta-analysis

Background: Clinical trials and meta-analyses have produced conflicting results of the efficacy of unconjugated pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in adults. We sought to evaluate the vaccines efficacy on clinical outcomes as well as the methodologic quality of the trials. Methods: We searched several databases and all bibliographies of reviews and meta-analyses for clinical trials that compared pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine with a control. We examined rates of pneumonia and death, taking the methodologic quality of the trials into consideration. Results: We included 22 trials involving 101 507 participants: 11 trials reported on presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia, 19 on all-cause pneumonia and 12 on all-cause mortality. The current 23-valent vaccine was used in 8 trials. The relative risk (RR) was 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–0.96) for presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia and 0.73 (95% CI 0.56–0.94) for all-cause pneumonia. There was significant heterogeneity between the trials reporting on presumptive pneumonia (I2 = 74%, p < 0.001) and between those reporting on all-cause pneumonia (I2 = 90%, p < 0.001). The RR for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% CI 0.87–1.09), with moderate heterogeneity between trials (I2 = 44%, p = 0.053). Trial quality, especially regarding double blinding, explained a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in the trials reporting on presumptive pneumonia and all-cause pneumonia. There was little evidence of vaccine protection in trials of higher methodologic quality (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.75–1.92, for presumptive pneumonia; and 1.19, 95% CI 0.95–1.49, for all-cause pneumonia in double-blind trials; p for heterogeneity > 0.05). The results for all-cause mortality in double-blind trials were similar to those in all trials combined. There was little evidence of vaccine protection among elderly patients or adults with chronic illness in analyses of all trials (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.78–1.38, for presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia; 0.89, 95% CI 0.69–1.14, for all-cause pneumonia; and 1.00, 95% CI 0.87–1.14, for all-cause mortality). Interpretation: Pneumococcal vaccination does not appear to be effective in preventing pneumonia, even in populations for whom the vaccine is currently recommended.

What Do Case-Control Studies Estimate? Survey of Methods and Assumptions in Published Case-Control Research

To evaluate strategies used to select cases and controls and how reported odds ratios are interpreted, the authors examined 150 case-control studies published in leading general medicine, epidemiology, and clinical specialist journals from 2001 to 2007. Most of the studies (125/150; 83%) were based on incident cases; among these, the source population was mostly dynamic (102/125; 82%). A minority (23/125; 18%) sampled from a fixed cohort. Among studies with incident cases, 105 (84%) could interpret the odds ratio as a rate ratio. Fifty-seven (46% of 125) required the source population to be stable for such interpretation, while the remaining 48 (38% of 125) did not need any assumptions because of matching on time or concurrent sampling. Another 17 (14% of 125) studies with incident cases could interpret the odds ratio as a risk ratio, with 16 of them requiring the rare disease assumption for this interpretation. The rare disease assumption was discussed in 4 studies but was not relevant to any of them. No investigators mentioned the need for a stable population. The authors conclude that in current case-control research, a stable exposure distribution is much more frequently needed to interpret odds ratios than the rare disease assumption. At present, investigators conducting case-control studies rarely discuss what their odds ratios estimate.

Intravaginal practices, vaginal infections and HIV acquisition: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Intravaginal practices are commonly used by women to manage their vaginal health and sexual life. These practices could, however, affect intravaginal mucosal integrity. The objectives of this study were to examine evidence for associations between: intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection; intravaginal practices and vaginal infections; and vaginal infections and HIV acquisition. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a systematic review of prospective longitudinal studies, searching 15 electronic databases of journals and abstracts from two international conferences to 31st January 2008. Relevant articles were selected and data extracted in duplicate. Results were examined visually in forest plots and combined using random effects meta-analysis where appropriate. Of 2120 unique references we included 22 publications from 15 different studies in sub-Saharan Africa and the USA. Seven publications from five studies examined a range of intravaginal practices and HIV infection. No specific vaginal practices showed a protective effect against HIV or vaginal infections. Insertion of products for sex was associated with HIV in unadjusted analyses; only one study gave an adjusted estimate, which showed no association (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.71, 1.67). HIV incidence was higher in women reporting intravaginal cleansing but confidence intervals were wide and heterogeneity high (adjusted hazard ratio 1.88, 95%CI 0.53, 6.69, I2 83.2%). HIV incidence was higher in women with bacterial vaginosis (adjusted effect 1.57, 95%CI 1.26, 1.94, I2 19.0%) and Trichomonas vaginalis (adjusted effect 1.64, 95%CI 1.28, 2.09, I2 0.0%). Conclusions/Significance A pathway linking intravaginal cleaning practices with vaginal infections that increase susceptibility to HIV infection is plausible but conclusive evidence is lacking. Intravaginal practices do not appear to protect women from vaginal infections or HIV and some might be harmful.

When one depends on the other: reporting of interaction in case-control and cohort studies

Background: Interaction refers to the situation in which the effect of 1 exposure on an outcome differs across strata of another exposure. We did a survey of epidemiologic studies published in leading journals to examine how interaction is assessed and reported. Methods: We selected 150 case-control and 75 cohort studies published between May 2001 and May 2007 in leading general medicine, epidemiology, and clinical specialist journals. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study characteristics. Results: Of the 225 studies, 138 (61%) addressed interaction. Among these, 25 (18%) presented no data or only a P value or a statement of statistical significance; 40 (29%) presented stratum-specific effect estimates but no meaningful comparison of these estimates; and 58 (42%) presented stratum-specific estimates and appropriate tests for interaction. Fifteen articles (11%) presented the individual effects of both exposures and also their joint effect or a product term, providing sufficient information to interpret interaction on an additive and multiplicative scale. Reporting was poorest in articles published in clinical specialist articles and most adequate in articles published in general medicine journals, with epidemiology journals in an intermediate position. Conclusions: A majority of articles reporting cohort and case-control studies address possible interactions between exposures. However, in about half of these, the information provided was unsatisfactory, and only 1 in 10 studies reported data that allowed readers to interpret interaction effects on an additive and multiplicative scale.

Comparing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedules based on 3 and 2 primary doses: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) were first licensed for use with 3 primary doses in infancy and a booster dose. The evidence for the effects of different schedules was examined in this systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS We searched 12 databases and trial registers up to March 2010. We selected randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort and case-control studies making direct comparisons between PCV schedules with (2p) or (3p) primary doses, with (+1) or without (+0) a booster dose. We extracted data on clinical, nasopharyngeal carriage and immunological outcomes and used meta-analysis to combine results where appropriate. RESULTS Seropositivity levels (antibody concentration ≥0.35 μg/ml) following 3p and 2p PCV schedules were high for most serotypes (5 RCTs). Differences between schedules were generally small and tended to favour 3p schedules, particularly for serotypes 6B and 23F; between-study heterogeneity was high. Seropositivity levels following 3p+1 and 2p+1 schedules were similar but small differences favouring 3p+1 schedules were seen for serotypes 6B and 23F. We did not identify any RCTs reporting clinical outcomes for these comparisons. In 2 RCTs there was weak evidence of a reduction in carriage of S. pneumoniae serotypes included in the vaccine when 3p+0 schedules were compared to 2p+0 at 6 months of age. CONCLUSIONS Most data about the relative effects of different PCV schedules relate to immunological outcomes. Both 3p and 2p schedules result in high levels of seropositivity. The clinical relevance of differences in immunological outcomes between schedules is not known. There is an absence of clinical outcome data from RCTs with direct comparisons of any 2p with any 3p PCV schedule.

Measles Vaccination in HIV-Infected Children: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Safety and Immunogenicity

BACKGROUND Measles control may be more challenging in regions with a high prevalence of HIV infection. HIV-infected children are likely to derive particular benefit from measles vaccines because of an increased risk of severe illness. However, HIV infection can impair vaccine effectiveness and may increase the risk of serious adverse events after receipt of live vaccines. We conducted a systematic review to assess the safety and immunogenicity of measles vaccine in HIV-infected children. METHODS The authors searched 8 databases through 12 February 2009 and reference lists. Study selection and data extraction were conducted in duplicate. Meta-analysis was conducted when appropriate. RESULTS Thirty-nine studies published from 1987 through 2008 were included. In 19 studies with information about measles vaccine safety, more than half reported no serious adverse events. Among HIV-infected children, 59% (95% confidence intervals [CI], 46-71%) were seropositive after receiving standard-titer measles vaccine at 6 months (1 study), comparable to the proportion of seropositive HIV-infected children vaccinated at 9 (8 studies) and 12 months (10 studies). Among HIV-exposed but uninfected and HIV-unexposed children, the proportion of seropositive children increased with increasing age at vaccination. Fewer HIV-infected children were protected after vaccination at 12 months than HIV-exposed but uninfected children (relative risk, 0.61; 95% CI, .50-.73). CONCLUSIONS Measles vaccines appear to be safe in HIV-infected children, but the evidence is limited. When the burden of measles is high, measles vaccination at 6 months of age is likely to benefit children of HIV-infected women, regardless of the childs HIV infection status.

A Randomized, Controlled Trial of an Aerosolized Vaccine against Measles

BACKGROUND Aerosolized vaccine can be used as a needle-free method of immunization against measles, a disease that remains a major cause of illness and death. Data on the immunogenicity of aerosolized vaccine against measles in children are inconsistent. METHODS We conducted an open-label noninferiority trial involving children 9.0 to 11.9 months of age in India who were eligible to receive a first dose of measles vaccine. Children were randomly assigned to receive a single dose of vaccine by means of either aerosol inhalation or a subcutaneous injection. The primary end points were seropositivity for antibodies against measles and adverse events 91 days after vaccination. The noninferiority margin was 5 percentage points. RESULTS A total of 1001 children were assigned to receive aerosolized vaccine, and 1003 children were assigned to receive subcutaneous vaccine; 1956 of all the children (97.6%) were followed to day 91, but outcome data were missing for 331 children because of thawed specimens. In the per-protocol population, data on 1560 of 2004 children (77.8%) could be evaluated. At day 91, a total of 662 of 775 children (85.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 82.5 to 88.0) in the aerosol group, as compared with 743 of 785 children (94.6%; 95% CI, 92.7 to 96.1) in the subcutaneous group, were seropositive, a difference of -9.2 percentage points (95% CI, -12.2 to -6.3). Findings were similar in the full-analysis set (673 of 788 children in the aerosol group [85.4%] and 754 of 796 children in the subcutaneous group [94.7%] were seropositive at day 91, a difference of -9.3 percentage points [95% CI, -12.3 to -6.4]) and after multiple imputation of missing results. No serious adverse events were attributable to measles vaccination. Adverse-event profiles were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Aerosolized vaccine against measles was immunogenic, but, at the prespecified margin, the aerosolized vaccine was inferior to the subcutaneous vaccine with respect to the rate of seropositivity. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Measles Aerosol Vaccine Project Clinical Trials Registry-India number, CTRI/2009/091/000673.).

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study.

Background: Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). Methods: We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. Results: The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. Conclusions: This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (f(acq), 1/f(dur)). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VE(acq.dur), (1-POR) × 100) best estimates the true VE (VE(acq.dur), (1-f(acq) × f(dur)) × 100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VE(acq.dur) first approximates VE(acq.dur): if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VE(acq.dur) approximates VE(acq.dur). CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Completeness of reporting in randomized controlled trials of 3 vaccines: a review of adherence to the CONSORT checklist.

Background: Clear reporting of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of vaccines is important for understanding results and assessing their validity. The CONsolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement provides guidance to help authors reporting RCTs. The objective was to assess the completeness of reporting of RCTs of vaccines based on the CONSORT 2010 checklist. Methods: We collected data about items required by the CONSORT checklist or specific to trials of vaccines. We used publications of RCTs identified in 3 systematic reviews of pneumococcal polysaccharide, pneumococcal conjugate and rotavirus vaccines. We included the first journal publication that reported clinical, carriage or immunological data for each trial and summarized results descriptively. Results: We included 70 publications from 19 journals. Of these, 14 publications (20%) stated in the title that the trial was randomized and 26 publications (37%) nominated at least 1 primary outcome. The method for generating the random allocation sequence was fully reported in 24 publications (34%), the method of allocation concealment in 9 publications (13%) and 30 publications (43%) included a flow diagram. Trial registration numbers were reported in all articles published in 2010 to 2011. Actual age at vaccination was reported in 20% of trials of childhood schedules. Eleven of 19 journals endorsed the CONSORT statement. Conclusions: The reporting of RCTs of vaccines is incomplete, with important methodological details missing from most reports. Journals could play a leading role in implementing changes. Improved reporting would make publications of vaccine trials easier to find, the findings easier to interpret and aid the incorporation of findings into policy.