Piritta Sorsa

A Review of Capital Account Restrictions in Chile in the 1990s

This paper examines the Chilean experience with capital controls and reviews studies on controls on capital inflows. Controls on Chile’s inflows had only a temporary impact in reducing specific inflows because they were affected by avoidance. There is some evidence that controls increased interest rates and altered the composition of capital inflows. The studies, however, contain important methodological problems in measuring flows and significant econometric weaknesses, which cast doubt on the robustness of the estimates. No study has assessed the political economy of the controls. It seems premature to view the Chilean experience as supportive of controls on capital inflows.

The GATS Agreement on Financial Services: A Modest Start to Multilateral Liberalization

This paper analyzes the links between multilateral, and unilateral financial liberalization, the former represented by the General Agreements on Trade in Services (GATS). It provides an overview of the main features of the GATS and what the participants in banking and securities within its framework, and compares GATS liberalization with the actual state of liberalization of the participants` financial sectors. The results suggest that in many countries multilaterally liberalized financial sector policies are more restrictive than the actual state of openness or development of financial sectors. Many emerging markets liberalized little under the GATS despite often well-developed financial markets, while the opposite was true in some less developed developing countries.

Trade Policy in Financial Services

This paper reviews the economics of trade policy in financial services, highlighting differences between trade across borders and through commercial presence. Trade liberalization could complement other financial reforms by enhancing the efficiency, quality, and variety of financial services and by encouraging improvement of financial regulations and practices. However, it raises sectoral, strategic, and cultural concerns. The design of trade policy should therefore emphasize the nexus with the macroeconomic framework and other financial sector policies, especially prudential and capital account regulations. It should also differentiate between types of trade. National reforms should be coordinated with multilateral trade agreements and initiatives on international financial architecture.

Algeria: The Real Exchange Rate, Export Diversification, and Trade Protection

Given the tendency of the oil sector to appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate (RER) in Algeria, trade liberalization with its depreciating impact on the RER is important for diversification of exports. This paper shows that reduction in trade protection would depreciate the RER in Algeria, which in turn would improve competitiveness of, and incentives to invest in, non-oil exports. The paper then discusses existing levels of protection in Algeria and directions for reform.

Competitiveness in Bulgaria; An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium and long-term determinants of the real (effective) exchange rate (RER) of the Bulgarian lev using elements from the natural real exchange rate (NATREX) and the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approaches. The results indicate that the RER is driven by fundamentals, including labor productivity, terms of trade, world real interest rates, gross savings, and foreign direct investment. The model also shows that there is no significant misalignment of the Bulgarian lev.

Environmental Protectionism, North-South Trade, and the Uruguay Round

The paper seeks to provide an overview of the present state of debate on trade, environment and the GATT for developing countries. Potential for green protectionism and relevant GATT rules are discussed in three areas: i) environmental product regulations including eco-labeling and other product measures with effects on production processes and border adjustment of environmental taxes; ii) extraterritorial use of trade measures to influence environmental behavior in other countries; and iii) the use of trade measures with international environmental agreements. The conclusion of the Uruguay Round will have a number of direct and indirect effects on trade and environment and the GATT debate on it.

Regional Integration and Baltic Trade and Investment Performance

This paper analyzes the role of regional arrangements in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in the Baltics. While progress with transition is a key determinant of trade and FDI performance, regional arrangements with Western Europe have helped develop trade and transfer of technology, but have not yet led to export-related foreign direct investment toward the European Union. The main reasons for this are policy uncertainties, need for more progress with transition, and restrictions in the trade agreements, especially on the European Union side. Intra-Baltic integration has not yet led to substantial trade and FDI growth between the Baltics.This paper analyzes the role of regional arrangements in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in the Baltics. While progress with transition is a key determinant of trade and FDI performance, regional arrangements with Western Europe have helped develop trade and transfer of technology, but have not yet led to export-related foreign direct investment toward the European Union. The main reasons for this are policy uncertainties, need for more progress with transition, and restrictions in the trade agreements, especially on the European Union side. Intra-Baltic integration has not yet led to substantial trade and FDI growth between the Baltics.

The Burden of Sub-Saharan African Own Commitments in the Uruguay Round; Myth or Reality?

The paper reviews Sub-Saharan Africa`s (SSA) (i) own market access commitments in the Uruguay Round, and (ii) the nature of the constraints on SSA policies set by the Uruguay Round. It concludes that SSA failed to use the Uruguay Round to lock domestic reforms to an international anchor. Apart from South Africa, most SSA countries made few substantial liberalization commitments on border protection. The new rules set few immediate constraints on SSA policies as developing countries benefit from long and extendable transition periods. The main impact of the new rules will be increased transparency of policies from increased notification requirements. Further trade liberalization will have to rely on unilateral initiatives.

Macroeconomic Challenges with EU Accession in Southeastern Europe : An Overview

The paper reviews key macroeconomic challenges with EU accession in Southeastern Europe (SEE). Most of the countries in the region are years away from EU accession and need substantial progress to meet the key macroeconomic criteria - the establishment of a functioning market economy and macroeconomic stability. The former calls for further structural reforms. While macroeconomic stability is essential throughout the EU accession process, the importance of specific outcomes increases in the last stage of accession, when countries face decisions to apply for entry into the ERM2 and the Maastricht criteria (Bulgaria and Romania). The main challenges with establishing macroeconomic stability in other countries are related to sustainability of their monetary frameworks, risks from rapid financial deepening, and further fiscal consolidation to support growth and stabilization. Most of the SEE countries have room to lower public spending and increase the share of pro-growth spending.

Macroeconomic Conditions and Import Surcharges in Selected Transition Economies

Analysis on macroeconomic determinants of protection in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland, while subject to many caveats, suggests that appreciation of the real exchange rate was the main macroeconomic determinant of trade policy reversals in the 1990s. This suggests that balance of payments difficulties may have been used as an excuse for protection. The analysis also suggests that greater exchange rate flexibility and tighter fiscal policies could have been used instead of import surcharges to deal with external imbalances. The surcharges may only have aggravated the external balance by slowing down exports and restructuring of production.