Po-Yung Cheng

Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005-2011

Context The goal of influenza vaccination programs is to reduce influenza-associated disease outcomes. Therefore, estimating the reduced burden of influenza as a result of vaccination over time and by age group would allow for a clear understanding of the value of influenza vaccines in the US, and of areas where improvements could lead to greatest benefits. Objective To estimate the direct effect of influenza vaccination in the US in terms of averted number of cases, medically-attended cases, and hospitalizations over six recent influenza seasons. Design Using existing surveillance data, we present a method for assessing the impact of influenza vaccination where impact is defined as either the number of averted outcomes or as the prevented disease fraction (the number of cases estimated to have been averted relative to the number of cases that would have occurred in the absence of vaccination). Results We estimated that during our 6-year study period, the number of influenza illnesses averted by vaccination ranged from a low of approximately 1.1 million (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6–1.7 million) during the 2006–2007 season to a high of 5 million (CI 2.9–8.6 million) during the 2010–2011 season while the number of averted hospitalizations ranged from a low of 7,700 (CI 3,700–14,100) in 2009–2010 to a high of 40,400 (CI 20,800–73,000) in 2010–2011. Prevented fractions varied across age groups and over time. The highest prevented fraction in the study period was observed in 2010–2011, reflecting the post-pandemic expansion of vaccination coverage. Conclusions Influenza vaccination programs in the US produce a substantial health benefit in terms of averted cases, clinic visits and hospitalizations. Our results underscore the potential for additional disease prevention through increased vaccination coverage, particularly among nonelderly adults, and increased vaccine effectiveness, particularly among the elderly.

Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

Most estimates of US deaths associated with influenza circulation have been similar despite the use of different approaches. However, a recently published estimate suggested that previous estimates substantially overestimated deaths associated with influenza, and concluded that substantial numbers of deaths during a future pandemic could be prevented because of improvements in medical care. We reviewed the data sources and methods used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. We suggest that discrepancies between the recent estimate and previous estimates of the number of influenza-associated deaths are attributable primarily to the use of different outcomes and methods. We also believe that secondary bacterial infections will likely result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a future influenza pandemic, despite medical progress.

Deaths averted by influenza vaccination in the U.S. during the seasons 2005/06 through 2013/14.

Background Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking. Methods We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ≥65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects. Results From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval [CI] 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ≥65 yrs. old. Conclusions The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects (“herd immunity”) of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates

Influenza-associated excess mortality in southern Brazil, 1980-2008.

In order to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality in southern Brazil, we applied Serfling regression models to monthly mortality data from 1980 to 2008 for pneumonia/influenza- and respiratory/circulatory-coded deaths for all ages and for those aged ≥60 years. According to viral data, 73∙5% of influenza viruses were detected between April and August in southern Brazil. There was no clear influenza season for northern Brazil. In southern Brazil, influenza-associated excess mortality was 1∙4/100,000 for all ages and 9∙2/100,000 person-years for persons aged ≥60 years using underlying pneumonia/influenza-coded deaths and 10∙0/100,000 for all ages and 86∙6/100,000 person-years for persons aged ≥60 years using underlying respiratory/circulatory-coded deaths. Influenza-associated excess mortality rates for southern Brazil are similar to those published for other countries. Our data support the need for continued influenza surveillance to guide vaccination campaigns to age groups most affected by this virus in Brazil.

Burden of influenza-associated deaths in the Americas, 2002–2008

Influenza disease is a vaccine‐preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) region has invested in influenza vaccines, but few estimates of influenza burden exist to justify these investments. We estimated influenza‐associated deaths for 35 PAHO countries during 2002–2008.

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002–2008, 2011–2014

Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.

Effectiveness of Nonadjuvanted Monovalent Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Vaccines for Preventing Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction–Confirmed Pandemic Influenza Hospitalizations: Case-Control Study of Children and Adults at 10 US Influenza Surveillance Network Sites

Abstract During 2009–2010, we examined 217 patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza in 9 Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network sites and 413 age- and community-matched controls and found that a single dose of monovalent nonadjuvanted influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was 50% (95% confidence interval, 13%–71%) effective in preventing hospitalization associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection.

Influenza-associated mortality in Thailand, 2006-2011.

Influenza‐associated mortality in subtropical or tropical regions, particularly in developing countries, remains poorly quantified and often underestimated. We analyzed data in Thailand, a middle‐income tropical country with good vital statistics and influenza surveillance data.

Incidence of influenza-associated mortality and hospitalizations in Argentina during 2002–2009

Please cite this paper as: Azziz‐Baumgartner et al. (2012) Incidence of influenza‐associated mortality and hospitalizations in Argentina during 2002–2009. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/irv.12022.

Trends in mortality from respiratory disease in Latin America since 1998 and the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic

OBJECTIVE To determine trends in mortality from respiratory disease in several areas of Latin America between 1998 and 2009. METHODS The numbers of deaths attributed to respiratory disease between 1998 and 2009 were extracted from mortality data from Argentina, southern Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Paraguay. Robust linear models were then fitted to the rates of mortality from respiratory disease recorded between 2003 and 2009. FINDINGS Between 1998 and 2008, rates of mortality from respiratory disease gradually decreased in all age groups in most of the study areas. Among children younger than 5 years, for example, the annual rates of such mortality - across all seven study areas - fell from 56.9 deaths per 100,000 in 1998 to 26.6 deaths per 100,000 in 2008. Over this period, rates of mortality from respiratory disease were generally highest among adults older than 65 years and lowest among individuals aged 5 to 49 years. In 2009, mortality from respiratory disease was either similar to that recorded in 2008 or showed an increase - significant increases were seen among children younger than 5 years in Paraguay, among those aged 5 to 49 years in southern Brazil, Mexico and Paraguay and among adults aged 50 to 64 years in Mexico and Paraguay. CONCLUSION In much of Latin America, mortality from respiratory disease gradually fell between 1998 and 2008. However, this downward trend came to a halt in 2009, probably as a result of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic.